ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 903
Avg Goals 2.69
Avg Home 1.49
Avg Away 1.20
Home Win % 42.6%
Draw % 26.1%
Away Win % 31.2%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 903
Avg Brier Score 0.5344
Pick Accuracy 56.7%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.5370
Market Brier 0.5366
Blended Model Beats Market? Yes
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 2
Value Bet Hit Rate 0.0%
ROI (flat stake) -100.0%
ROI Trustworthy? Yes
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 2 of 903 matches had at least one · staked 2.00, profit -2.00 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 1 0.0% 1.00 -1.00 -100.0%
draw 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
away 1 0.0% 1.00 -1.00 -100.0%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 6.9% 4.9% 246
10–20% 15.1% 14.7% 435
20–30% 26.3% 26.7% 808
30–40% 33.7% 30.9% 485
40–50% 44.6% 50.6% 251
50–60% 54.8% 52.6% 152
60–70% 65.1% 62.7% 102
70–80% 75.1% 77.9% 122
80–90% 84.0% 87.4% 103
90–100% 90.8% 100.0% 5
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
11.08.23 Sporting Braga vs FC Famalicao 1-2 65% 66% -1.3 21% 23% -9.5 14% 17% -20.9
12.08.23 Gil Vicente vs Portimonense SC 5-0 52% 55% -4.3 27% 29% -6.8 21% 24% -13.5
12.08.23 SC Farense vs Casa Pia AC 0-3 40% 43% -7.2 30% 32% -7.0 30% 32% -8.0
12.08.23 Sporting Lisboa vs FC Vizela 3-2 82% 83% -2.0 13% 15% -17.5 6% 8% -27.1
13.08.23 CF Estrela vs Vitoria Guimaraes 0-1 35% 41% -13.2 30% 32% -6.6 34% 34% -0.1
13.08.23 FC Arouca vs Estoril Praia 4-3 49% 51% -3.4 28% 31% -8.0 23% 26% -13.1
13.08.23 Rio Ave vs GD Chaves 2-0 49% 52% -6.2 28% 30% -6.7 23% 26% -9.7
14.08.23 Boavista Porto vs Benfica Lisboa 3-2 8% 11% -27.5 15% 18% -16.3 76% 76% 0.2
14.08.23 Moreirense FC vs FC Porto 1-2 10% 14% -27.9 17% 21% -17.4 73% 72% 1.0
18.08.23 Casa Pia AC vs Sporting Lisboa 1-2 9% 12% -24.2 17% 20% -13.5 74% 75% -1.1
19.08.23 Benfica Lisboa vs CF Estrela 2-0 86% 87% -1.3 10% 12% -21.4 5% 7% -30.2
19.08.23 GD Chaves vs Sporting Braga 2-4 14% 18% -25.1 21% 24% -13.4 66% 65% 0.6
19.08.23 Vitoria Guimaraes vs Gil Vicente 2-1 46% 48% -2.7 28% 31% -7.6 25% 29% -14.2
20.08.23 Estoril Praia vs Rio Ave 2-0 38% 40% -4.9 30% 32% -7.0 32% 36% -10.5
20.08.23 FC Porto vs SC Farense 2-1 82% 83% -1.3 12% 15% -20.2 5% 8% -28.9
20.08.23 FC Vizela vs FC Arouca 2-2 42% 45% -8.4 29% 31% -5.7 29% 31% -6.1
21.08.23 FC Famalicao vs Moreirense FC 0-0 44% 43% 2.0 28% 31% -8.1 27% 33% -17.9
25.08.23 CF Estrela vs Estoril Praia 2-1 43% 44% -2.4 29% 31% -6.6 27% 31% -12.1
26.08.23 FC Arouca vs Portimonense SC 1-1 57% 57% 0.6 25% 29% -11.8 17% 22% -20.4
26.08.23 Gil Vicente vs Benfica Lisboa 2-3 8% 11% -25.4 15% 17% -13.1 77% 78% -1.6
27.08.23 Boavista Porto vs Casa Pia AC 1-1 40% 42% -4.1 30% 32% -7.2 30% 33% -11.1
27.08.23 Sporting Lisboa vs FC Famalicao 1-0 80% 81% -0.4 13% 17% -20.6 6% 9% -29.3
27.08.23 Vitoria Guimaraes vs FC Vizela 2-0 46% 51% -8.4 29% 30% -5.5 25% 27% -5.9
28.08.23 Rio Ave vs FC Porto 1-2 11% 14% -23.6 19% 22% -13.2 70% 71% -1.1
01.09.23 FC Vizela vs Gil Vicente 1-0 44% 47% -5.6 29% 30% -5.7 28% 31% -10.6
02.09.23 Benfica Lisboa vs Vitoria Guimaraes 4-0 78% 79% -0.3 14% 17% -18.6 7% 10% -28.3
02.09.23 Casa Pia AC vs Rio Ave 1-1 44% 47% -4.8 29% 31% -7.2 27% 30% -11.9
02.09.23 FC Famalicao vs SC Farense 1-0 49% 49% -0.1 28% 31% -8.9 23% 28% -16.3
02.09.23 Portimonense SC vs CF Estrela 1-1 37% 41% -10.1 30% 31% -5.6 34% 36% -5.3
03.09.23 Estoril Praia vs Boavista Porto 1-2 38% 40% -5.4 29% 31% -5.8 33% 36% -10.1
03.09.23 FC Porto vs FC Arouca 1-1 81% 82% -1.0 13% 16% -18.4 6% 8% -27.4
03.09.23 GD Chaves vs Moreirense FC 1-2 33% 36% -8.4 29% 30% -5.0 38% 42% -9.0
03.09.23 Sporting Braga vs Sporting Lisboa 1-1 27% 31% -13.3 27% 28% -3.7 46% 49% -5.4
09.09.23 Moreirense FC vs Sporting Braga 2-3 22% 27% -19.9 26% 28% -8.1 53% 53% 0.4
15.09.23 CF Estrela vs FC Porto 0-1 13% 18% -26.7 20% 23% -14.7 67% 66% 1.8
16.09.23 FC Vizela vs Benfica Lisboa 1-2 10% 13% -25.1 17% 20% -13.2 73% 74% -1.2
16.09.23 Rio Ave vs FC Famalicao 1-1 38% 40% -5.8 30% 32% -6.8 32% 36% -9.6
16.09.23 SC Farense vs Sporting Braga 3-1 18% 24% -22.9 24% 26% -10.4 58% 57% 1.6
17.09.23 FC Arouca vs Casa Pia AC 0-1 36% 36% -1.4 30% 32% -6.4 34% 38% -11.7
17.09.23 Gil Vicente vs Estoril Praia 5-3 49% 50% -2.7 27% 29% -7.3 24% 29% -15.7
17.09.23 Sporting Lisboa vs Moreirense FC 3-0 80% 80% -0.2 14% 17% -20.9 6% 9% -29.2
17.09.23 Vitoria Guimaraes vs Portimonense SC 1-2 64% 65% -2.5 23% 25% -9.6 14% 17% -17.8
22.09.23 FC Famalicao vs FC Arouca 1-0 46% 47% -1.0 29% 31% -7.9 25% 29% -14.4
23.09.23 Casa Pia AC vs Vitoria Guimaraes 0-0 40% 42% -5.0 30% 32% -6.6 30% 33% -9.1
23.09.23 Estoril Praia vs FC Vizela 2-2 37% 41% -10.1 28% 29% -3.9 35% 38% -7.2
23.09.23 FC Porto vs Gil Vicente 2-1 80% 81% -0.5 13% 16% -18.9 7% 10% -28.8
23.09.23 Moreirense FC vs SC Farense 1-0 46% 48% -2.6 28% 29% -6.0 26% 30% -14.3
24.09.23 GD Chaves vs CF Estrela 2-2 34% 38% -11.4 28% 29% -3.6 38% 39% -4.2
24.09.23 Portimonense SC vs Benfica Lisboa 1-3 6% 8% -30.2 12% 15% -22.0 83% 83% 0.3
24.09.23 Sporting Braga vs Boavista Porto 4-1 65% 66% -1.9 21% 23% -8.9 14% 18% -20.8
25.09.23 Sporting Lisboa vs Rio Ave 2-0 84% 85% -0.6 11% 14% -22.2 5% 7% -29.6
28.09.23 CF Estrela vs Sporting Braga 2-4 20% 24% -17.4 24% 26% -5.6 56% 58% -2.9
29.09.23 Benfica Lisboa vs FC Porto 1-0 51% 54% -5.2 26% 28% -5.1 22% 26% -12.6
30.09.23 Boavista Porto vs FC Famalicao 2-2 41% 43% -4.5 29% 31% -5.5 30% 34% -10.7
30.09.23 SC Farense vs Sporting Lisboa 2-3 10% 14% -25.7 18% 21% -14.3 72% 72% -0.8
01.10.23 FC Arouca vs GD Chaves 0-2 51% 52% -2.3 27% 29% -7.8 22% 26% -15.5
01.10.23 Rio Ave vs Moreirense FC 0-4 36% 38% -5.9 30% 32% -6.5 34% 38% -9.0
01.10.23 Vitoria Guimaraes vs Estoril Praia 3-2 54% 56% -3.2 26% 28% -7.6 20% 24% -16.2
02.10.23 Gil Vicente vs Casa Pia AC 2-0 40% 42% -3.4 29% 31% -6.4 30% 35% -12.5
06.10.23 Moreirense FC vs Boavista Porto 1-1 50% 53% -4.8 27% 28% -4.2 23% 26% -11.6
07.10.23 Estoril Praia vs Benfica Lisboa 0-1 9% 13% -29.3 14% 17% -16.9 76% 77% -0.6
07.10.23 GD Chaves vs Gil Vicente 4-2 34% 38% -11.2 28% 29% -4.0 38% 40% -6.0
07.10.23 Sporting Braga vs Rio Ave 2-1 74% 76% -2.1 16% 19% -13.6 9% 12% -25.2
08.10.23 Casa Pia AC vs CF Estrela 0-1 46% 48% -3.6 28% 30% -6.5 26% 29% -12.5
08.10.23 FC Famalicao vs Vitoria Guimaraes 1-3 35% 36% -3.8 31% 33% -7.3 34% 38% -9.6
08.10.23 FC Porto vs Portimonense SC 1-0 85% 87% -2.0 10% 13% -23.1 5% 7% -31.4
08.10.23 Sporting Lisboa vs FC Arouca 2-1 84% 85% -0.9 11% 14% -21.8 5% 7% -29.7
27.10.23 FC Arouca vs Moreirense FC 0-1 36% 39% -7.4 30% 32% -6.6 34% 36% -7.8
28.10.23 Benfica Lisboa vs Casa Pia AC 1-1 81% 81% -0.6 13% 16% -17.8 6% 8% -27.2
28.10.23 Gil Vicente vs Sporting Braga 3-3 19% 22% -14.8 23% 23% -1.7 59% 62% -5.3
28.10.23 Portimonense SC vs Estoril Praia 1-0 39% 40% -3.0 29% 30% -5.5 33% 38% -13.7
28.10.23 Vitoria Guimaraes vs GD Chaves 5-0 58% 60% -2.3 24% 26% -6.9 18% 22% -17.2
29.10.23 CF Estrela vs FC Famalicao 1-0 40% 40% -0.1 30% 32% -7.5 30% 35% -13.9
29.10.23 FC Vizela vs FC Porto 0-2 12% 15% -17.2 21% 22% -7.0 67% 70% -4.1
29.10.23 Rio Ave vs SC Farense 3-4 37% 42% -10.7 29% 31% -5.4 34% 36% -5.7
30.10.23 Boavista Porto vs Sporting Lisboa 0-2 11% 14% -23.7 18% 21% -11.9 71% 72% -1.1
03.11.23 FC Porto vs Estoril Praia 0-1 83% 83% -0.5 11% 14% -20.9 6% 8% -30.0
04.11.23 FC Famalicao vs Gil Vicente 3-1 47% 49% -3.7 28% 29% -5.3 25% 29% -11.9
04.11.23 GD Chaves vs Benfica Lisboa 0-2 8% 11% -26.6 15% 17% -14.0 77% 78% -1.1
04.11.23 Sporting Braga vs Portimonense SC 6-1 79% 80% -1.6 14% 16% -14.8 8% 11% -27.0
05.11.23 Casa Pia AC vs FC Vizela 0-1 45% 48% -6.0 29% 30% -5.6 27% 29% -9.5
05.11.23 Moreirense FC vs Vitoria Guimaraes 1-0 34% 36% -5.8 30% 32% -6.6 36% 39% -9.2
05.11.23 Rio Ave vs Boavista Porto 2-0 34% 40% -14.0 29% 31% -5.5 37% 37% -1.4
05.11.23 Sporting Lisboa vs CF Estrela 3-2 82% 83% -0.9 12% 15% -21.7 6% 9% -30.3
06.11.23 SC Farense vs FC Arouca 2-0 41% 43% -3.2 29% 31% -6.6 30% 34% -12.6
10.11.23 Estoril Praia vs Casa Pia AC 4-0 37% 41% -9.3 30% 32% -6.4 33% 34% -4.9
11.11.23 CF Estrela vs Moreirense FC 0-1 37% 38% -2.7 29% 31% -5.5 34% 39% -12.8
11.11.23 FC Vizela vs FC Famalicao 0-0 43% 45% -4.7 30% 32% -7.8 27% 30% -11.0
11.11.23 Vitoria Guimaraes vs FC Porto 1-2 17% 21% -20.7 25% 29% -12.1 58% 58% -0.2
12.11.23 Benfica Lisboa vs Sporting Lisboa 2-1 34% 38% -12.3 29% 31% -5.4 37% 38% -3.4
12.11.23 FC Arouca vs Sporting Braga 0-1 19% 23% -18.2 24% 26% -6.6 57% 59% -2.3
12.11.23 Gil Vicente vs Rio Ave 1-1 44% 48% -6.7 28% 29% -4.5 27% 30% -9.4
02.12.23 Casa Pia AC vs Portimonense SC 1-0 49% 52% -6.1 28% 29% -5.8 24% 26% -10.1
02.12.23 FC Famalicao vs FC Porto 0-3 12% 16% -23.4 22% 25% -13.9 66% 66% 0.6
02.12.23 Rio Ave vs CF Estrela 1-1 45% 49% -8.0 28% 29% -3.9 27% 29% -6.0
02.12.23 SC Farense vs Vitoria Guimaraes 1-2 28% 31% -9.7 28% 29% -3.4 44% 48% -7.2
03.12.23 Boavista Porto vs FC Arouca 0-4 37% 38% -3.2 30% 32% -6.9 33% 37% -11.6
03.12.23 Moreirense FC vs Benfica Lisboa 0-0 14% 18% -23.7 21% 23% -11.1 66% 66% -1.0
03.12.23 Sporting Braga vs Estoril Praia 3-1 71% 72% -1.5 17% 19% -9.0 12% 15% -23.4
04.12.23 Sporting Lisboa vs Gil Vicente 3-1 87% 88% -1.6 9% 11% -20.9 4% 6% -30.0
Showing the 100 most recent of 903 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

18 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Benfica Lisboa 2444.50
2 FC Porto 2359.34
3 Sporting Lisboa 2307.58
4 Sporting Braga 2147.21
5 FC Famalicao 2067.74
6 Santa Clara 2057.08
7 Gil Vicente 2050.37
8 Vitoria Guimaraes 2030.11
9 FC Alverca 2013.29
10 CF Estrela 2004.40
11 Estoril Praia 1982.79
12 FC Arouca 1979.58
13 Academico Viseu 1952.00
14 Rio Ave 1925.95
15 Maritimo Funchal 1914.60
16 Nacional Madeira 1904.97
17 Casa Pia AC 1884.97
18 Moreirense FC 1882.65

Away Ratings

18 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Benfica Lisboa 2368.78
2 Sporting Lisboa 2256.11
3 FC Porto 2220.37
4 Sporting Braga 2162.29
5 Vitoria Guimaraes 2076.65
6 Gil Vicente 2000.97
7 FC Famalicao 1999.48
8 FC Alverca 1994.80
9 Santa Clara 1994.22
10 Academico Viseu 1978.70
11 FC Arouca 1934.78
12 Estoril Praia 1916.87
13 CF Estrela 1905.84
14 Casa Pia AC 1842.24
15 Nacional Madeira 1840.87
16 Moreirense FC 1839.78
17 Rio Ave 1831.59
18 Maritimo Funchal 1812.33