ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 382
Avg Goals 2.10
Avg Home 1.20
Avg Away 0.90
Home Win % 43.7%
Draw % 28.3%
Away Win % 28.0%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 382
Avg Brier Score 0.6176
Pick Accuracy 47.9%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.6181
Market Brier 0.6172
Blended Model Beats Market? No
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 4
Value Bet Hit Rate 25.0%
ROI (flat stake) 112.5%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • The blended model's Brier score does not beat the market's — ROI may reflect leftover model bias rather than genuine skill.
  • 100.0% of value bets are on 'away' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 4 of 382 matches had at least one · staked 4.00, profit 4.50 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
draw 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
away 4 25.0% 4.00 4.50 112.5%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 9.2% 0.0% 5
10–20% 16.3% 11.2% 80
20–30% 26.3% 24.7% 372
30–40% 33.3% 32.4% 442
40–50% 44.3% 52.6% 135
50–60% 53.9% 57.3% 82
60–70% 63.7% 63.0% 27
70–80% 72.6% 100.0% 3
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
18.08.23 Gasogi United vs Rayon Sports FC 1-2 16% 14% 8.9 23% 23% -0.3 61% 74% -16.5
20.08.23 Etincelles FC vs Gorilla FC 1-1 43% 49% -11.7 29% 32% -9.2 28% 31% -11.7
20.08.23 Rwanda Police FC vs Sunrise FC 2-0 52% 59% -11.9 28% 31% -9.1 20% 22% -9.1
20.08.23 SC Kiyovu vs Muhazi United 0-0 58% 66% -11.9 25% 26% -6.8 18% 20% -12.3
21.08.23 AS Kigali vs Bugesera FC 1-0 42% 49% -14.6 30% 33% -10.1 28% 31% -7.9
25.08.23 Gasogi United vs Muhazi United 2-0 50% 58% -14.1 28% 30% -8.2 22% 24% -7.8
26.08.23 Mukura Victory vs Marines FC Gisenyi 1-0 45% 53% -16.0 29% 32% -8.7 26% 26% -2.6
26.08.23 Musanze FC vs Bugesera FC 1-0 34% 40% -15.0 29% 32% -9.1 37% 40% -8.3
26.08.23 SC Kiyovu vs AS Kigali 2-0 46% 51% -9.4 31% 36% -13.0 23% 26% -12.0
27.08.23 Gorilla FC vs Rayon Sports FC 0-0 32% 38% -17.3 29% 32% -10.2 39% 42% -7.1
28.08.23 Amagaju vs Etincelles FC 2-0 35% 39% -10.4 32% 36% -12.6 33% 38% -12.3
28.08.23 APR FC vs Rwanda Police FC 1-0 58% 65% -10.9 25% 27% -7.7 17% 19% -11.7
01.09.23 Rayon Sports FC vs Amagaju 1-1 65% 75% -13.9 23% 24% -3.9 12% 12% 2.0
02.09.23 AS Kigali vs Gasogi United 1-2 49% 56% -13.3 30% 33% -10.8 22% 23% -6.5
02.09.23 Bugesera FC vs SC Kiyovu 4-0 27% 29% -5.6 31% 35% -11.5 42% 49% -14.0
02.09.23 Etoile de l'Est vs APR FC 0-1 15% 15% -0.5 23% 23% -2.5 62% 72% -14.2
02.09.23 Marines FC Gisenyi vs Etincelles FC 1-0 42% 45% -7.2 30% 33% -10.6 28% 33% -16.0
02.09.23 Musanze FC vs Sunrise FC 2-1 40% 47% -13.1 31% 35% -10.9 28% 30% -6.5
03.09.23 Muhazi United vs Gorilla FC 1-1 34% 38% -11.1 33% 38% -13.1 34% 37% -9.1
03.09.23 Rwanda Police FC vs Mukura Victory 1-1 45% 53% -14.7 31% 35% -11.5 24% 25% -3.7
15.09.23 Gasogi United vs SC Kiyovu 1-1 36% 42% -14.1 29% 32% -8.9 35% 38% -9.5
16.09.23 Sunrise FC vs Bugesera FC 1-0 36% 43% -14.7 31% 36% -11.9 32% 34% -6.6
17.09.23 Etincelles FC vs Rwanda Police FC 1-0 29% 31% -4.3 30% 34% -10.2 40% 48% -15.8
17.09.23 Mukura Victory vs Etoile de l'Est 0-3 63% 76% -17.9 23% 23% 1.1 14% 12% 19.0
18.09.23 Gorilla FC vs AS Kigali 0-0 28% 31% -9.1 29% 31% -8.4 43% 50% -14.1
23.09.23 Marines FC Gisenyi vs APR FC 2-2 22% 22% -1.2 26% 28% -5.2 52% 62% -16.8
30.09.23 Bugesera FC vs Gasogi United 3-0 40% 47% -13.6 31% 35% -10.8 29% 31% -6.6
30.09.23 Etoile de l'Est vs Etincelles FC 1-0 36% 41% -10.9 30% 34% -10.6 33% 38% -13.3
30.09.23 Musanze FC vs Mukura Victory 0-0 45% 56% -19.7 30% 33% -9.9 25% 23% 7.5
01.10.23 AS Kigali vs Amagaju 1-1 55% 62% -11.2 27% 29% -8.9 18% 20% -9.8
01.10.23 Muhazi United vs Marines FC Gisenyi 0-0 31% 34% -10.6 31% 36% -12.0 38% 43% -11.3
02.10.23 SC Kiyovu vs Gorilla FC 1-0 50% 56% -11.1 29% 32% -10.6 21% 24% -10.9
06.10.23 APR FC vs Musanze FC 2-1 59% 69% -14.9 25% 26% -4.1 16% 17% -2.0
07.10.23 Marines FC Gisenyi vs Rayon Sports FC 2-2 27% 28% -4.3 29% 32% -9.2 44% 53% -16.1
10.10.23 APR FC vs Bugesera FC 1-1 57% 68% -15.6 25% 26% -3.3 18% 18% -2.1
10.10.23 Gorilla FC vs Gasogi United 2-2 34% 38% -11.8 32% 36% -11.8 35% 38% -10.1
10.10.23 Mukura Victory vs Sunrise FC 1-0 51% 62% -17.6 28% 29% -6.2 22% 21% 2.4
11.10.23 Amagaju vs SC Kiyovu 1-1 30% 34% -10.8 30% 34% -10.5 39% 44% -11.3
11.10.23 Marines FC Gisenyi vs AS Kigali 0-1 34% 38% -9.3 30% 33% -9.9 36% 42% -14.2
11.10.23 Rayon Sports FC vs Etoile de l'Est 2-1 57% 65% -12.2 26% 28% -8.0 18% 20% -10.9
11.10.23 Rwanda Police FC vs Muhazi United 2-1 51% 58% -12.0 28% 31% -8.7 21% 23% -8.9
13.10.23 APR FC vs Mukura Victory 1-0 51% 60% -15.6 27% 29% -6.8 22% 23% -4.3
14.10.23 Bugesera FC vs Gorilla FC 2-2 48% 56% -13.7 29% 31% -8.2 23% 25% -6.5
14.10.23 Gasogi United vs Amagaju 0-1 41% 45% -10.1 30% 34% -10.7 29% 33% -13.4
14.10.23 SC Kiyovu vs Marines FC Gisenyi 2-1 52% 62% -15.3 27% 29% -6.8 20% 21% -2.6
14.10.23 Sunrise FC vs Etincelles FC 0-1 51% 59% -14.0 28% 31% -8.2 21% 22% -4.9
15.10.23 AS Kigali vs Rwanda Police FC 0-1 44% 50% -11.0 30% 34% -11.8 25% 29% -12.1
15.10.23 Etoile de l'Est vs Muhazi United 0-1 37% 41% -9.0 31% 35% -10.8 32% 36% -11.7
15.10.23 Musanze FC vs Rayon Sports FC 1-0 32% 35% -10.0 32% 37% -12.9 36% 41% -11.4
20.10.23 Rwanda Police FC vs SC Kiyovu 3-1 41% 47% -12.9 32% 36% -11.2 28% 29% -5.5
21.10.23 Marines FC Gisenyi vs Gasogi United 0-1 39% 44% -12.1 30% 33% -10.1 31% 35% -11.8
21.10.23 Muhazi United vs Musanze FC 1-1 31% 34% -9.7 31% 35% -11.6 38% 43% -12.9
21.10.23 Mukura Victory vs Bugesera FC 2-1 39% 44% -13.0 31% 35% -11.1 30% 33% -9.0
21.10.23 Rayon Sports FC vs Sunrise FC 3-0 59% 69% -15.2 25% 27% -4.9 16% 15% 2.6
22.10.23 Amagaju vs Gorilla FC 0-1 46% 53% -13.3 30% 33% -10.6 25% 27% -9.0
22.10.23 Etincelles FC vs APR FC 0-3 25% 27% -5.9 27% 29% -6.5 47% 56% -15.2
22.10.23 Etoile de l'Est vs AS Kigali 0-0 30% 33% -10.5 30% 34% -10.7 40% 45% -12.2
27.10.23 Gorilla FC vs Marines FC Gisenyi 2-3 35% 39% -11.0 30% 32% -8.3 36% 40% -11.2
27.10.23 SC Kiyovu vs Etoile de l'Est 6-1 52% 61% -14.2 28% 30% -8.0 20% 21% -4.4
28.10.23 Bugesera FC vs Amagaju 2-2 46% 53% -12.5 30% 33% -10.6 24% 27% -9.4
28.10.23 Gasogi United vs Rwanda Police FC 0-1 34% 36% -7.2 32% 36% -11.4 35% 40% -13.4
28.10.23 Mukura Victory vs Etincelles FC 1-0 50% 58% -13.9 29% 32% -9.7 21% 22% -4.2
29.10.23 APR FC vs Rayon Sports FC 0-0 44% 50% -13.0 30% 33% -9.7 26% 29% -7.6
29.10.23 Musanze FC vs AS Kigali 1-0 33% 36% -9.6 32% 37% -12.7 35% 39% -11.3
29.10.23 Sunrise FC vs Muhazi United 1-2 43% 49% -12.1 31% 34% -11.2 26% 29% -10.0
03.11.23 Rwanda Police FC vs Gorilla FC 1-0 52% 60% -13.5 28% 30% -8.7 21% 23% -8.4
04.11.23 Marines FC Gisenyi vs Amagaju 1-0 42% 48% -12.6 30% 33% -10.4 29% 32% -11.6
04.11.23 Muhazi United vs APR FC 1-2 22% 22% -0.9 28% 31% -9.1 50% 60% -15.9
04.11.23 Musanze FC vs SC Kiyovu 1-0 42% 49% -14.7 30% 33% -9.8 28% 30% -6.6
04.11.23 Rayon Sports FC vs Mukura Victory 4-1 50% 58% -14.1 29% 31% -8.6 21% 22% -4.5
05.11.23 AS Kigali vs Sunrise FC 0-1 59% 69% -15.0 27% 29% -8.4 14% 13% 8.4
05.11.23 Etincelles FC vs Bugesera FC 3-2 32% 36% -10.7 31% 34% -11.0 37% 43% -12.1
05.11.23 Etoile de l'Est vs Gasogi United 1-0 35% 38% -9.4 31% 35% -11.3 34% 39% -13.2
24.11.23 Gorilla FC vs Etoile de l'Est 1-0 40% 45% -11.8 31% 34% -9.8 29% 32% -9.0
25.11.23 APR FC vs AS Kigali 1-1 50% 58% -14.7 30% 34% -11.0 20% 20% -0.3
25.11.23 Etincelles FC vs Rayon Sports FC 1-1 34% 39% -14.1 30% 33% -10.5 36% 41% -10.6
26.11.23 Gasogi United vs Musanze FC 2-0 34% 37% -7.9 32% 36% -12.2 34% 39% -13.4
28.11.23 Rwanda Police FC vs Rayon Sports FC 1-2 36% 40% -10.2 32% 36% -11.9 32% 36% -10.3
29.11.23 Sunrise FC vs APR FC 0-1 15% 14% 2.3 26% 29% -10.2 59% 68% -13.3
01.12.23 Rayon Sports FC vs Bugesera FC 1-0 48% 55% -13.2 31% 35% -11.4 21% 22% -2.2
02.12.23 Musanze FC vs Gorilla FC 0-1 50% 58% -13.6 28% 31% -8.3 22% 23% -6.7
02.12.23 Rwanda Police FC vs Marines FC Gisenyi 2-1 52% 61% -14.8 28% 31% -8.4 20% 21% -3.2
02.12.23 SC Kiyovu vs APR FC 1-1 31% 35% -11.4 30% 34% -10.5 39% 43% -10.8
02.12.23 Sunrise FC vs Gasogi United 0-1 35% 39% -10.4 32% 36% -11.3 33% 37% -10.4
03.12.23 AS Kigali vs Mukura Victory 1-1 44% 51% -12.7 31% 34% -10.8 25% 27% -6.9
03.12.23 Muhazi United vs Etincelles FC 3-1 46% 53% -13.5 32% 36% -12.7 22% 23% -3.3
05.12.23 Amagaju vs Musanze FC 0-2 38% 43% -11.5 32% 37% -12.8 29% 32% -9.3
05.12.23 APR FC vs Gasogi United 0-0 55% 62% -10.8 27% 30% -10.4 18% 20% -11.1
05.12.23 Bugesera FC vs Rwanda Police FC 4-2 25% 26% -1.8 29% 31% -8.3 46% 56% -16.9
05.12.23 Marines FC Gisenyi vs Etoile de l'Est 3-2 51% 60% -15.9 28% 30% -7.5 21% 22% -1.8
06.12.23 Etincelles FC vs AS Kigali 4-2 30% 34% -12.1 31% 36% -12.1 39% 43% -8.9
06.12.23 Mukura Victory vs SC Kiyovu 4-1 39% 44% -13.3 31% 35% -11.4 30% 33% -8.9
06.12.23 Rayon Sports FC vs Muhazi United 2-0 59% 69% -15.0 26% 28% -6.9 15% 15% 2.0
08.12.23 Etoile de l'Est vs Rwanda Police FC 0-3 22% 23% -3.2 28% 31% -8.6 50% 58% -15.3
09.12.23 AS Kigali vs Rayon Sports FC 2-1 30% 32% -7.4 32% 36% -12.0 38% 43% -12.3
09.12.23 Gasogi United vs Mukura Victory 2-4 36% 39% -9.2 32% 36% -11.8 33% 38% -12.8
09.12.23 Muhazi United vs Bugesera FC 1-0 45% 52% -14.0 30% 33% -10.4 26% 28% -8.0
09.12.23 Musanze FC vs Marines FC Gisenyi 3-0 47% 56% -15.8 28% 29% -6.5 25% 27% -6.7
09.12.23 SC Kiyovu vs Etincelles FC 2-1 60% 71% -15.8 25% 26% -3.5 15% 14% 5.7
12.12.23 Bugesera FC vs Etoile de l'Est 2-0 58% 70% -16.7 25% 26% -3.7 16% 15% 6.4
Showing the 100 most recent of 382 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

16 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Rayon Sports FC 1749.84
2 APR FC 1733.44
3 Marines FC Gisenyi 1654.51
4 Rwanda Police FC 1653.54
5 Amagaju 1649.81
6 SC Kiyovu 1576.33
7 Musanze FC 1567.78
8 Bugesera FC 1543.89
9 Gorilla FC 1517.75
10 Muhazi United 1511.59
11 AS Kigali 1505.08
12 Etincelles FC 1498.36
13 Rutsiro FC 1471.58
14 Vision FC 1434.76
15 Gasogi United 1391.58
16 Mukura Victory 1357.96

Away Ratings

16 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 APR FC 1710.58
2 Muhazi United 1592.80
3 SC Kiyovu 1565.38
4 Marines FC Gisenyi 1557.62
5 AS Kigali 1556.97
6 Musanze FC 1543.60
7 Rwanda Police FC 1516.91
8 Etincelles FC 1511.89
9 Bugesera FC 1499.27
10 Rayon Sports FC 1490.76
11 Gasogi United 1462.80
12 Amagaju 1453.74
13 Rutsiro FC 1408.73
14 Gorilla FC 1397.48
15 Mukura Victory 1351.30
16 Vision FC 1327.34