ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 504
Avg Goals 2.57
Avg Home 1.38
Avg Away 1.18
Home Win % 40.9%
Draw % 27.4%
Away Win % 31.7%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
Calculating…
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 504
Avg Brier Score 0.6213
Pick Accuracy 46.4%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.6250
Market Brier 0.6200
Blended Model Beats Market? No
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 21
Value Bet Hit Rate 0.0%
ROI (flat stake) -100.0%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • The blended model's Brier score does not beat the market's — ROI may reflect leftover model bias rather than genuine skill.
  • 76.2% of value bets are on 'away' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 18 of 504 matches had at least one · staked 21.00, profit -21.00 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 2 0.0% 2.00 -2.00 -100.0%
draw 3 0.0% 3.00 -3.00 -100.0%
away 16 0.0% 16.00 -16.00 -100.0%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 8.9% 0.0% 1
10–20% 17.0% 12.5% 80
20–30% 26.7% 25.9% 704
30–40% 34.5% 34.8% 379
40–50% 44.5% 46.0% 213
50–60% 54.2% 56.2% 105
60–70% 63.8% 74.1% 27
70–80% 72.5% 100.0% 3
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
04.08.23 Arbroath FC vs Dundee United 0-4 27% 29% -6.8 30% 32% -7.9 44% 49% -10.5
05.08.23 Dunfermline AFC vs Airdrieonians FC 2-1 44% 51% -13.8 28% 29% -5.0 28% 29% -5.3
05.08.23 Greenock Morton FC vs Ayr United 3-1 37% 43% -12.7 29% 30% -5.6 34% 37% -7.5
05.08.23 Inverness Caledonian Thistle vs Queens Park 1-2 40% 47% -13.5 28% 29% -4.3 32% 33% -5.1
05.08.23 Partick Thistle vs Raith Rovers Kirkcaldy 2-2 50% 56% -10.9 27% 29% -6.1 23% 25% -8.8
12.08.23 Airdrieonians FC vs Partick Thistle 2-1 29% 31% -8.2 27% 29% -4.1 44% 50% -12.2
12.08.23 Ayr United vs Inverness Caledonian Thistle 1-0 44% 51% -13.9 28% 29% -4.4 28% 29% -2.9
12.08.23 Dundee United vs Dunfermline AFC 1-1 50% 58% -14.5 27% 28% -3.2 23% 23% 0.1
12.08.23 Queens Park vs Arbroath FC 2-1 49% 58% -15.1 26% 27% -2.2 24% 24% -0.8
12.08.23 Raith Rovers Kirkcaldy vs Greenock Morton FC 3-2 37% 42% -11.4 29% 31% -6.5 34% 37% -8.6
19.08.23 Arbroath FC vs Queens Park 0-1 29% 31% -7.9 28% 30% -6.2 43% 49% -12.3
26.08.23 Airdrieonians FC vs Inverness Caledonian Thistle 2-1 42% 49% -14.6 28% 29% -4.4 30% 31% -3.4
26.08.23 Ayr United vs Dundee United 0-3 31% 34% -9.5 29% 31% -6.4 41% 45% -10.9
26.08.23 Dunfermline AFC vs Raith Rovers Kirkcaldy 0-1 38% 42% -9.6 29% 31% -6.2 33% 37% -10.9
26.08.23 Greenock Morton FC vs Arbroath FC 0-3 50% 60% -15.7 27% 28% -3.0 23% 22% 3.1
26.08.23 Partick Thistle vs Queens Park 3-1 44% 51% -12.5 27% 29% -4.1 28% 31% -7.7
02.09.23 Arbroath FC vs Ayr United 2-1 34% 39% -12.1 30% 32% -7.6 36% 38% -7.2
02.09.23 Dundee United vs Airdrieonians FC 2-0 55% 65% -15.7 25% 25% -0.2 20% 19% 4.7
02.09.23 Greenock Morton FC vs Partick Thistle 1-4 32% 36% -11.4 28% 30% -6.0 39% 43% -9.6
02.09.23 Inverness Caledonian Thistle vs Dunfermline AFC 1-1 38% 43% -11.7 29% 31% -6.3 33% 36% -7.2
02.09.23 Raith Rovers Kirkcaldy vs Queens Park 3-2 41% 48% -13.4 28% 29% -3.5 31% 33% -6.4
15.09.23 Ayr United vs Partick Thistle 0-4 28% 30% -6.9 28% 29% -5.1 44% 51% -13.1
16.09.23 Arbroath FC vs Airdrieonians FC 4-0 35% 39% -11.7 29% 31% -6.5 36% 39% -7.8
16.09.23 Dundee United vs Greenock Morton FC 1-1 54% 65% -16.0 25% 26% -0.6 20% 19% 6.6
16.09.23 Queens Park vs Dunfermline AFC 0-2 39% 44% -13.3 29% 30% -5.9 33% 36% -7.7
16.09.23 Raith Rovers Kirkcaldy vs Inverness Caledonian Thistle 1-0 46% 54% -14.5 27% 29% -3.9 26% 27% -2.7
22.09.23 Queens Park vs Ayr United 2-5 42% 50% -15.5 27% 29% -4.2 30% 32% -5.8
23.09.23 Airdrieonians FC vs Raith Rovers Kirkcaldy 1-0 35% 39% -11.0 29% 31% -6.1 36% 40% -9.5
23.09.23 Dunfermline AFC vs Greenock Morton FC 3-1 43% 50% -14.7 28% 30% -6.0 29% 30% -4.7
23.09.23 Partick Thistle vs Arbroath FC 0-3 55% 65% -14.3 25% 26% -2.5 20% 20% -1.4
30.09.23 Arbroath FC vs Inverness Caledonian Thistle 2-3 38% 43% -12.5 29% 31% -6.4 33% 35% -6.7
30.09.23 Ayr United vs Raith Rovers Kirkcaldy 1-2 32% 35% -8.1 29% 31% -6.5 39% 43% -11.4
30.09.23 Dundee United vs Queens Park 4-1 56% 67% -15.7 24% 24% 1.2 20% 19% 3.4
30.09.23 Greenock Morton FC vs Airdrieonians FC 0-1 39% 45% -13.2 28% 29% -4.5 32% 35% -6.8
30.09.23 Partick Thistle vs Dunfermline AFC 3-0 42% 48% -11.0 28% 29% -5.4 30% 33% -10.7
07.10.23 Airdrieonians FC vs Ayr United 1-2 42% 48% -12.5 28% 29% -4.4 30% 32% -6.3
07.10.23 Queens Park vs Greenock Morton FC 0-0 40% 47% -14.2 27% 29% -3.9 33% 35% -7.0
07.10.23 Raith Rovers Kirkcaldy vs Dundee United 1-1 31% 34% -8.7 29% 30% -5.8 40% 45% -12.0
20.10.23 Airdrieonians FC vs Queens Park 1-1 43% 50% -14.0 27% 28% -2.9 30% 32% -6.9
21.10.23 Dunfermline AFC vs Ayr United 0-1 45% 53% -14.3 28% 29% -5.3 27% 29% -5.3
27.10.23 Dundee United vs Arbroath FC 6-0 61% 72% -15.3 22% 22% 3.5 16% 15% 9.1
27.10.23 Queens Park vs Partick Thistle 2-2 33% 37% -11.2 27% 29% -4.0 40% 44% -10.7
28.10.23 Ayr United vs Greenock Morton FC 0-1 40% 47% -13.9 29% 30% -5.7 31% 33% -5.8
28.10.23 Inverness Caledonian Thistle vs Airdrieonians FC 1-0 40% 47% -14.0 28% 29% -4.6 32% 34% -5.9
28.10.23 Raith Rovers Kirkcaldy vs Dunfermline AFC 1-0 43% 49% -12.5 28% 29% -4.6 29% 31% -6.4
31.10.23 Airdrieonians FC vs Dundee United 0-2 21% 20% 2.9 25% 24% 0.6 55% 65% -16.0
31.10.23 Greenock Morton FC vs Raith Rovers Kirkcaldy 1-2 32% 35% -9.2 30% 32% -7.5 38% 43% -9.9
31.10.23 Partick Thistle vs Ayr United 2-2 46% 53% -13.8 26% 27% -2.3 27% 29% -6.5
03.11.23 Greenock Morton FC vs Dunfermline AFC 1-2 37% 42% -12.2 29% 30% -5.8 34% 38% -8.8
04.11.23 Arbroath FC vs Partick Thistle 1-3 33% 37% -12.0 27% 29% -4.1 40% 44% -10.0
04.11.23 Ayr United vs Queens Park 2-2 39% 44% -12.4 28% 29% -4.5 33% 36% -7.8
04.11.23 Raith Rovers Kirkcaldy vs Airdrieonians FC 1-1 50% 59% -14.2 26% 27% -2.5 24% 24% -3.6
10.11.23 Dunfermline AFC vs Dundee United 1-2 22% 22% 0.2 27% 28% -3.6 51% 60% -14.4
11.11.23 Airdrieonians FC vs Arbroath FC 2-0 41% 47% -12.3 28% 29% -4.3 31% 33% -6.8
11.11.23 Inverness Caledonian Thistle vs Ayr United 3-1 37% 43% -12.2 29% 31% -6.3 33% 36% -6.6
11.11.23 Partick Thistle vs Greenock Morton FC 2-1 47% 55% -14.7 27% 28% -3.0 26% 27% -3.0
11.11.23 Queens Park vs Raith Rovers Kirkcaldy 2-3 33% 37% -11.3 29% 31% -6.4 38% 43% -9.9
18.11.23 Dunfermline AFC vs Inverness Caledonian Thistle 1-1 39% 43% -11.1 29% 31% -6.1 32% 36% -9.1
28.11.23 Dunfermline AFC vs Arbroath FC 3-0 46% 53% -14.0 27% 29% -4.0 27% 28% -4.3
02.12.23 Inverness Caledonian Thistle vs Raith Rovers Kirkcaldy 1-2 32% 36% -10.3 31% 35% -9.7 36% 39% -7.0
02.12.23 Partick Thistle vs Airdrieonians FC 2-1 48% 56% -15.2 27% 28% -4.5 26% 28% -7.1
08.12.23 Raith Rovers Kirkcaldy vs Partick Thistle 4-3 40% 45% -12.6 28% 29% -5.1 32% 36% -9.4
09.12.23 Airdrieonians FC vs Dunfermline AFC 1-2 35% 38% -9.6 29% 30% -5.4 37% 41% -10.5
09.12.23 Arbroath FC vs Greenock Morton FC 1-2 33% 37% -9.7 29% 31% -6.6 37% 42% -10.4
09.12.23 Dundee United vs Ayr United 1-0 65% 76% -15.3 21% 19% 8.6 15% 13% 13.5
09.12.23 Queens Park vs Inverness Caledonian Thistle 1-4 43% 50% -14.8 28% 30% -6.0 29% 30% -4.6
12.12.23 Greenock Morton FC vs Inverness Caledonian Thistle 2-1 33% 36% -8.2 29% 31% -6.1 37% 42% -10.6
13.12.23 Arbroath FC vs Raith Rovers Kirkcaldy 1-2 21% 20% 2.8 25% 26% -1.1 54% 64% -15.1
16.12.23 Ayr United vs Airdrieonians FC 1-0 39% 44% -11.7 30% 32% -7.6 31% 33% -7.2
16.12.23 Dundee United vs Raith Rovers Kirkcaldy 0-1 52% 60% -14.4 27% 28% -3.9 22% 22% -0.0
16.12.23 Dunfermline AFC vs Partick Thistle 1-2 37% 42% -11.8 28% 29% -4.4 35% 38% -8.6
16.12.23 Greenock Morton FC vs Queens Park 1-0 41% 48% -13.2 28% 29% -3.5 31% 33% -6.7
16.12.23 Inverness Caledonian Thistle vs Arbroath FC 1-2 54% 64% -15.2 25% 26% -1.0 21% 20% 3.1
22.12.23 Queens Park vs Dundee United 0-0 17% 17% 2.4 23% 23% 1.2 60% 69% -13.7
22.12.23 Raith Rovers Kirkcaldy vs Ayr United 4-4 55% 65% -15.0 25% 26% -1.2 20% 19% 4.0
23.12.23 Airdrieonians FC vs Greenock Morton FC 0-0 41% 48% -13.4 29% 30% -5.8 30% 32% -6.4
23.12.23 Arbroath FC vs Dunfermline AFC 1-1 25% 26% -4.1 27% 28% -3.3 48% 56% -13.7
30.12.23 Ayr United vs Dunfermline AFC 2-2 35% 40% -11.6 29% 30% -5.4 36% 39% -8.2
30.12.23 Inverness Caledonian Thistle vs Greenock Morton FC 0-0 41% 47% -12.3 30% 33% -8.6 29% 30% -5.2
30.12.23 Queens Park vs Airdrieonians FC 1-2 36% 40% -11.2 29% 30% -5.8 36% 40% -10.2
30.12.23 Raith Rovers Kirkcaldy vs Arbroath FC 2-2 62% 72% -14.2 22% 21% 4.3 16% 15% 7.0
02.01.24 Airdrieonians FC vs Inverness Caledonian Thistle 2-0 39% 44% -12.7 30% 32% -7.5 31% 33% -6.0
02.01.24 Arbroath FC vs Dundee United 0-3 11% 9% 19.0 17% 15% 15.2 72% 84% -14.2
02.01.24 Dunfermline AFC vs Raith Rovers Kirkcaldy 1-2 30% 32% -8.6 27% 29% -4.5 43% 50% -13.6
02.01.24 Greenock Morton FC vs Ayr United 3-0 41% 48% -13.3 29% 30% -5.8 30% 32% -6.5
02.01.24 Partick Thistle vs Queens Park 3-2 59% 71% -16.8 22% 21% 6.9 19% 17% 7.8
05.01.24 Queens Park vs Dunfermline AFC 2-1 31% 34% -9.6 27% 28% -3.0 42% 48% -12.0
06.01.24 Airdrieonians FC vs Raith Rovers Kirkcaldy 1-0 31% 35% -10.2 29% 31% -6.7 39% 43% -9.5
06.01.24 Ayr United vs Inverness Caledonian Thistle 1-3 39% 45% -14.3 29% 31% -6.9 32% 34% -5.7
06.01.24 Dundee United vs Greenock Morton FC 2-3 63% 73% -13.8 22% 22% 0.8 15% 14% 6.8
06.01.24 Partick Thistle vs Arbroath FC 4-0 60% 71% -15.5 22% 21% 5.0 18% 17% 3.4
13.01.24 Arbroath FC vs Ayr United 0-0 30% 32% -8.0 27% 29% -3.8 43% 49% -12.2
13.01.24 Greenock Morton FC vs Partick Thistle 1-1 37% 42% -13.3 28% 29% -4.8 35% 38% -8.0
13.01.24 Raith Rovers Kirkcaldy vs Queens Park 1-2 57% 67% -14.6 24% 23% 2.7 19% 18% 4.5
23.01.24 Ayr United vs Arbroath FC 2-0 53% 62% -15.5 26% 26% -2.2 22% 22% 0.1
27.01.24 Airdrieonians FC vs Partick Thistle 1-1 33% 37% -10.7 29% 31% -5.9 38% 42% -8.8
27.01.24 Dundee United vs Dunfermline AFC 0-0 64% 74% -14.3 22% 22% 1.2 14% 12% 12.1
27.01.24 Greenock Morton FC vs Arbroath FC 3-0 59% 69% -15.5 24% 23% 1.9 18% 17% 6.7
27.01.24 Queens Park vs Ayr United 1-2 37% 43% -13.2 28% 29% -4.6 35% 38% -7.3
27.01.24 Raith Rovers Kirkcaldy vs Inverness Caledonian Thistle 2-3 48% 56% -15.2 28% 29% -5.0 24% 24% 0.1
Showing the 100 most recent of 504 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

10 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Partick Thistle 1841.21
2 Livingston FC 1826.77
3 Dunfermline AFC 1792.76
4 Inverness Caledonian Thistle 1786.18
5 Raith Rovers Kirkcaldy 1745.35
6 Ayr United 1653.62
7 Arbroath FC 1630.89
8 Stenhousemuir FC 1617.19
9 Queens Park 1540.22
10 Greenock Morton FC 1522.50

Away Ratings

10 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Livingston FC 1811.33
2 Partick Thistle 1797.95
3 Dunfermline AFC 1764.25
4 Raith Rovers Kirkcaldy 1760.44
5 Inverness Caledonian Thistle 1700.58
6 Ayr United 1628.31
7 Stenhousemuir FC 1596.00
8 Arbroath FC 1526.28
9 Greenock Morton FC 1487.87
10 Queens Park 1469.94