ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 708
Avg Goals 2.21
Avg Home 1.31
Avg Away 0.90
Home Win % 44.8%
Draw % 31.1%
Away Win % 24.2%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
Calculating…
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 708
Avg Brier Score 0.6234
Pick Accuracy 47.5%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.6241
Market Brier 0.6243
Blended Model Beats Market? Yes
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 6
Value Bet Hit Rate 16.7%
ROI (flat stake) 166.7%
ROI Trustworthy? Yes
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 6 of 708 matches had at least one · staked 6.00, profit 10.00 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 3 0.0% 3.00 -3.00 -100.0%
draw 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
away 3 33.3% 3.00 13.00 433.3%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 8.7% 14.3% 7
10–20% 16.7% 14.8% 176
20–30% 26.3% 25.8% 716
30–40% 33.1% 32.6% 709
40–50% 44.5% 47.2% 307
50–60% 54.4% 53.7% 162
60–70% 63.4% 68.3% 41
70–80% 72.2% 83.3% 6
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
05.08.23 FK Jedinstvo Ub vs RFK Novi Sad 1921 4-0 60% 69% -13.3 23% 23% -1.0 17% 19% -11.2
05.08.23 FK Metalac Gornji Milanovac vs FK Graficar Beograd 1-3 41% 48% -14.4 30% 32% -7.1 29% 33% -12.1
05.08.23 FK Smederevo vs FK Indjija 2-0 31% 37% -16.5 33% 36% -9.8 36% 39% -7.5
05.08.23 OFK Vrsac vs FK Kolubara Lazarevac 1-0 35% 38% -9.8 32% 34% -8.3 34% 39% -14.1
06.08.23 FK Macva Sabac vs FK Tekstilac Odzaci 0-0 44% 51% -15.2 30% 32% -6.6 26% 29% -7.7
06.08.23 Radnicki Novi Beograd vs Gfk Dubocica 2-0 47% 50% -5.8 28% 31% -9.7 25% 31% -19.9
11.08.23 FK Graficar Beograd vs FK Jedinstvo Ub 3-0 44% 50% -12.5 28% 30% -6.5 28% 33% -16.2
12.08.23 FK Indjija vs Gfk Dubocica 2-2 46% 52% -11.4 29% 32% -8.6 25% 29% -13.8
12.08.23 FK Smederevo vs FK Mladost GAT Novi Sad 1-1 37% 47% -20.4 31% 33% -6.9 32% 32% -0.9
12.08.23 FK Tekstilac Odzaci vs FK Sloboda Uzice 3-1 36% 41% -11.5 31% 33% -7.5 33% 38% -14.1
12.08.23 Radnicki Sremska Mitrovica vs OFK Vrsac 0-0 47% 51% -7.6 30% 34% -12.1 23% 28% -17.9
13.08.23 FK Kolubara Lazarevac vs FK Macva Sabac 3-2 57% 65% -12.6 26% 28% -7.0 17% 19% -10.7
18.08.23 OFK Vrsac vs FK Smederevo 1-1 45% 51% -12.5 30% 32% -8.2 26% 29% -13.2
19.08.23 FK Macva Sabac vs Radnicki Sremska Mitrovica 3-0 40% 45% -11.8 32% 35% -9.7 28% 32% -12.5
19.08.23 FK Metalac Gornji Milanovac vs FK Tekstilac Odzaci 0-0 49% 56% -11.5 29% 32% -9.1 22% 24% -11.8
20.08.23 FK Jedinstvo Ub vs OFK Belgrade 0-3 42% 44% -5.1 30% 33% -10.3 28% 35% -19.8
20.08.23 Radnicki Novi Beograd vs FK Graficar Beograd 1-1 29% 29% -3.0 29% 31% -4.5 42% 52% -18.8
21.08.23 Gfk Dubocica vs RFK Novi Sad 1921 2-1 68% 78% -12.2 22% 23% -5.6 10% 10% -1.2
26.08.23 FK Smederevo vs FK Macva Sabac 0-0 45% 54% -15.8 29% 31% -5.9 25% 27% -7.1
27.08.23 FK Graficar Beograd vs Gfk Dubocica 1-2 53% 60% -12.0 28% 30% -8.5 19% 22% -11.4
27.08.23 FK Mladost GAT Novi Sad vs OFK Vrsac 1-2 53% 60% -11.2 28% 30% -9.1 20% 23% -13.8
27.08.23 FK Tekstilac Odzaci vs FK Jedinstvo Ub 0-0 38% 43% -10.5 31% 33% -8.2 31% 37% -15.5
02.09.23 FK Jedinstvo Ub vs FK Kolubara Lazarevac 3-2 38% 43% -9.7 31% 33% -8.4 31% 37% -16.2
02.09.23 FK Macva Sabac vs FK Mladost GAT Novi Sad 2-0 42% 50% -15.1 31% 34% -8.2 26% 29% -7.4
02.09.23 FK Sloboda Uzice vs FK Smederevo 1-1 40% 45% -10.9 31% 33% -8.4 29% 34% -14.5
02.09.23 OFK Vrsac vs FK Indjija 0-1 39% 43% -10.2 32% 35% -9.2 29% 34% -13.5
03.09.23 Gfk Dubocica vs OFK Belgrade 3-5 32% 33% -4.8 30% 31% -5.4 39% 48% -18.8
03.09.23 Radnicki Novi Beograd vs FK Tekstilac Odzaci 1-3 45% 51% -11.6 31% 35% -10.8 23% 26% -11.2
03.09.23 RFK Novi Sad 1921 vs FK Graficar Beograd 2-2 22% 25% -10.9 28% 29% -3.9 49% 58% -15.4
08.09.23 OFK Vrsac vs FK Macva Sabac 0-0 42% 48% -11.0 31% 34% -9.0 27% 31% -13.0
09.09.23 FK Indjija vs FK Graficar Beograd 0-0 43% 50% -14.8 29% 31% -5.8 28% 31% -10.5
09.09.23 FK Smederevo vs FK Metalac Gornji Milanovac 2-1 40% 44% -10.7 32% 35% -9.1 28% 32% -11.8
09.09.23 Radnicki Sremska Mitrovica vs FK Jedinstvo Ub 4-0 43% 48% -10.2 31% 34% -9.6 27% 31% -14.9
10.09.23 FK Tekstilac Odzaci vs Gfk Dubocica 1-0 46% 53% -13.3 30% 32% -7.9 24% 27% -10.5
16.09.23 FK Macva Sabac vs FK Indjija 2-1 39% 44% -13.3 32% 36% -9.5 29% 32% -9.6
16.09.23 FK Sloboda Uzice vs OFK Vrsac 1-1 41% 44% -8.6 32% 36% -10.7 27% 32% -14.8
16.09.23 Gfk Dubocica vs FK Kolubara Lazarevac 1-1 32% 35% -8.4 32% 35% -8.6 36% 43% -15.4
17.09.23 FK Graficar Beograd vs OFK Belgrade 0-5 33% 34% -4.9 27% 28% -1.6 40% 50% -20.3
17.09.23 RFK Novi Sad 1921 vs FK Tekstilac Odzaci 1-0 26% 29% -10.4 31% 33% -7.3 43% 50% -14.5
18.09.23 FK Jedinstvo Ub vs FK Smederevo 0-0 53% 60% -11.8 28% 30% -8.6 19% 22% -11.9
22.09.23 FK Macva Sabac vs FK Sloboda Uzice 0-0 49% 56% -12.7 30% 33% -9.8 21% 24% -10.0
23.09.23 FK Mladost GAT Novi Sad vs FK Jedinstvo Ub 3-4 48% 54% -11.8 30% 32% -8.4 23% 26% -11.2
23.09.23 FK Smederevo vs Radnicki Novi Beograd 2-1 50% 58% -13.3 28% 30% -6.9 21% 24% -10.2
23.09.23 FK Tekstilac Odzaci vs FK Graficar Beograd 4-0 40% 45% -10.9 30% 32% -7.1 30% 34% -14.4
23.09.23 OFK Vrsac vs FK Metalac Gornji Milanovac 1-0 42% 47% -10.4 32% 35% -10.0 27% 31% -13.1
23.09.23 Radnicki Sremska Mitrovica vs Gfk Dubocica 1-1 57% 65% -12.6 26% 29% -7.8 17% 18% -9.2
30.09.23 FK Macva Sabac vs FK Jedinstvo Ub 1-0 41% 48% -13.1 32% 35% -9.4 27% 30% -10.7
01.10.23 FK Indjija vs FK Tekstilac Odzaci 1-0 45% 51% -11.8 31% 34% -9.8 25% 29% -13.0
01.10.23 FK Smederevo vs RFK Novi Sad 1921 1-0 64% 74% -13.0 23% 24% -4.4 13% 14% -7.1
01.10.23 OFK Vrsac vs Radnicki Novi Beograd 0-1 54% 62% -13.0 27% 29% -7.2 18% 20% -8.5
01.10.23 Radnicki Sremska Mitrovica vs FK Graficar Beograd 2-1 45% 51% -11.8 30% 33% -9.5 25% 29% -13.9
02.10.23 FK Mladost GAT Novi Sad vs Gfk Dubocica 1-1 54% 61% -11.5 28% 30% -8.7 19% 21% -11.3
07.10.23 FK Jedinstvo Ub vs FK Sloboda Uzice 1-0 51% 57% -10.2 28% 31% -8.8 20% 23% -12.4
08.10.23 FK Tekstilac Odzaci vs FK Kolubara Lazarevac 0-1 41% 45% -10.4 32% 36% -10.3 27% 31% -12.8
08.10.23 Gfk Dubocica vs OFK Vrsac 1-0 39% 43% -10.6 31% 34% -8.9 30% 36% -15.3
08.10.23 Radnicki Novi Beograd vs FK Macva Sabac 1-1 34% 38% -11.6 33% 36% -9.8 33% 38% -12.0
09.10.23 FK Graficar Beograd vs FK Smederevo 1-2 46% 51% -9.7 28% 30% -6.7 26% 31% -16.4
15.10.23 FK Macva Sabac vs Gfk Dubocica 0-1 53% 60% -11.8 29% 31% -8.7 18% 20% -8.2
15.10.23 FK Metalac Gornji Milanovac vs FK Jedinstvo Ub 0-0 43% 49% -11.6 31% 34% -9.1 26% 29% -10.6
15.10.23 FK Smederevo vs OFK Belgrade 1-2 23% 24% -3.7 29% 31% -4.5 48% 58% -17.5
16.10.23 FK Mladost GAT Novi Sad vs FK Graficar Beograd 0-0 53% 60% -12.5 27% 29% -6.8 20% 22% -10.5
16.10.23 OFK Vrsac vs RFK Novi Sad 1921 1-0 64% 72% -11.5 23% 25% -6.8 13% 14% -9.0
16.10.23 Radnicki Sremska Mitrovica vs FK Tekstilac Odzaci 1-0 28% 29% -4.2 31% 34% -7.5 40% 49% -17.1
21.10.23 FK Jedinstvo Ub vs FK Indjija 1-1 41% 47% -11.7 32% 35% -9.9 27% 31% -12.6
21.10.23 Gfk Dubocica vs FK Sloboda Uzice 1-0 43% 49% -10.9 31% 35% -10.3 25% 29% -12.3
22.10.23 FK Graficar Beograd vs OFK Vrsac 1-2 46% 51% -10.8 30% 32% -8.3 25% 29% -13.6
22.10.23 RFK Novi Sad 1921 vs FK Macva Sabac 1-0 24% 26% -8.9 31% 33% -7.2 45% 53% -14.3
23.10.23 FK Tekstilac Odzaci vs FK Smederevo 1-0 54% 58% -8.3 28% 31% -11.2 19% 22% -16.1
27.10.23 FK Metalac Gornji Milanovac vs Gfk Dubocica 0-0 45% 50% -10.3 30% 34% -10.6 25% 29% -15.5
27.10.23 OFK Vrsac vs OFK Belgrade 1-1 23% 25% -6.1 30% 32% -6.0 46% 55% -15.9
28.10.23 FK Jedinstvo Ub vs Radnicki Novi Beograd 2-1 58% 65% -11.8 26% 28% -7.7 17% 19% -12.0
28.10.23 FK Macva Sabac vs FK Graficar Beograd 0-0 45% 51% -10.9 30% 33% -9.2 25% 29% -13.3
28.10.23 FK Mladost GAT Novi Sad vs FK Tekstilac Odzaci 0-0 42% 48% -11.6 32% 35% -9.3 26% 29% -10.7
28.10.23 FK Smederevo vs FK Kolubara Lazarevac 0-0 35% 38% -9.4 32% 35% -8.9 33% 39% -14.9
05.11.23 FK Graficar Beograd vs FK Sloboda Uzice 5-1 53% 60% -11.7 28% 30% -8.0 19% 21% -10.0
05.11.23 FK Tekstilac Odzaci vs OFK Vrsac 1-0 51% 55% -7.6 30% 34% -13.1 19% 23% -15.3
05.11.23 Gfk Dubocica vs FK Jedinstvo Ub 1-0 40% 44% -10.7 32% 36% -11.0 28% 32% -13.3
05.11.23 OFK Belgrade vs FK Macva Sabac 2-1 68% 78% -11.7 21% 22% -4.8 10% 11% -4.1
06.11.23 Radnicki Sremska Mitrovica vs FK Smederevo 0-0 50% 56% -11.5 29% 32% -9.3 21% 24% -11.6
11.11.23 FK Indjija vs FK Smederevo 1-2 48% 53% -9.7 29% 32% -9.1 23% 27% -14.4
11.11.23 FK Tekstilac Odzaci vs FK Macva Sabac 1-0 46% 50% -8.5 32% 37% -13.2 22% 26% -13.7
12.11.23 FK Graficar Beograd vs FK Metalac Gornji Milanovac 1-1 53% 61% -13.3 28% 29% -6.5 19% 21% -8.3
12.11.23 FK Kolubara Lazarevac vs OFK Vrsac 4-0 49% 53% -8.3 30% 33% -11.1 22% 26% -15.6
12.11.23 RFK Novi Sad 1921 vs FK Jedinstvo Ub 0-2 27% 31% -11.3 31% 33% -7.3 42% 49% -14.2
18.11.23 FK Jedinstvo Ub vs FK Graficar Beograd 3-1 44% 50% -11.0 29% 31% -7.3 27% 31% -15.1
18.11.23 FK Macva Sabac vs FK Kolubara Lazarevac 1-0 41% 45% -10.2 33% 38% -12.0 26% 29% -11.7
18.11.23 FK Sloboda Uzice vs FK Tekstilac Odzaci 0-2 33% 36% -8.6 33% 37% -10.5 34% 39% -14.2
18.11.23 OFK Vrsac vs Radnicki Sremska Mitrovica 1-0 40% 43% -9.1 32% 36% -10.4 28% 33% -14.5
21.11.23 Gfk Dubocica vs FK Smederevo 2-1 44% 49% -10.5 31% 34% -9.3 26% 29% -13.1
22.11.23 FK Graficar Beograd vs FK Kolubara Lazarevac 1-0 42% 47% -10.8 29% 31% -6.0 29% 34% -14.2
22.11.23 FK Jedinstvo Ub vs OFK Vrsac 1-1 49% 54% -9.3 29% 32% -9.2 22% 25% -13.2
22.11.23 OFK Belgrade vs FK Tekstilac Odzaci 2-0 61% 68% -10.1 25% 27% -7.9 14% 16% -10.8
23.11.23 FK Metalac Gornji Milanovac vs FK Macva Sabac 1-2 40% 47% -13.4 34% 38% -11.9 26% 28% -6.9
26.11.23 FK Graficar Beograd vs Radnicki Novi Beograd 4-2 61% 70% -12.6 24% 26% -5.6 15% 16% -8.3
26.11.23 FK Smederevo vs OFK Vrsac 1-0 45% 51% -10.8 32% 36% -11.3 23% 26% -11.7
26.11.23 FK Tekstilac Odzaci vs FK Metalac Gornji Milanovac 1-2 52% 59% -11.3 29% 32% -9.9 19% 21% -9.9
26.11.23 OFK Belgrade vs FK Jedinstvo Ub 3-0 64% 71% -11.0 23% 25% -7.2 13% 15% -10.7
27.11.23 Radnicki Sremska Mitrovica vs FK Macva Sabac 1-0 43% 49% -11.8 32% 36% -10.4 25% 28% -10.1
27.11.23 RFK Novi Sad 1921 vs Gfk Dubocica 0-0 32% 35% -10.0 32% 35% -8.6 36% 42% -13.8
02.12.23 FK Jedinstvo Ub vs FK Tekstilac Odzaci 1-1 40% 44% -9.1 31% 34% -9.9 29% 34% -15.8
Showing the 100 most recent of 708 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

22 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Backa Topola 1707.75
2 Javor Ivanjica 1707.04
3 FK Spartak Subotica 1640.36
4 FK Vozdovac Beograd 1633.71
5 FK Smederevo 1610.85
6 FK Loznica 1596.08
7 OFK Vrsac 1578.35
8 Napredak Krusevac 1565.53
9 FK Borac Cacak 1563.44
10 FK Dinamo Jug 1557.98
11 FK Tekstilac Odzaci 1530.97
12 FK Kabel Novi Sad 1517.65
13 FK Naftagas Elemir 1510.29
14 Gfk Dubocica 1510.00
15 FK Trayal Krusevac 1503.59
16 FK Graficar Beograd 1482.98
17 FK Metalac Gornji Milanovac 1470.47
18 FK FAP Priboj 1470.15
19 FK Jedinstvo Ub 1460.22
20 FK Bor 1919 1440.52
21 FK Teleoptik Zemun 1392.85
22 FK Usce Novi Beograd 1281.51

Away Ratings

22 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Backa Topola 1666.92
2 FK Borac Cacak 1601.60
3 Javor Ivanjica 1597.98
4 FK Spartak Subotica 1554.26
5 FK Vozdovac Beograd 1530.97
6 FK Smederevo 1520.53
7 OFK Vrsac 1507.27
8 Napredak Krusevac 1506.65
9 FK Loznica 1484.96
10 FK Tekstilac Odzaci 1461.41
11 FK Graficar Beograd 1435.72
12 Gfk Dubocica 1413.62
13 FK Kabel Novi Sad 1396.62
14 FK FAP Priboj 1389.70
15 FK Naftagas Elemir 1387.49
16 FK Metalac Gornji Milanovac 1384.06
17 FK Jedinstvo Ub 1377.29
18 FK Dinamo Jug 1372.71
19 FK Bor 1919 1367.61
20 FK Trayal Krusevac 1337.30
21 FK Teleoptik Zemun 1317.98
22 FK Usce Novi Beograd 1179.29