ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 524
Avg Goals 2.87
Avg Home 1.56
Avg Away 1.31
Home Win % 43.5%
Draw % 23.5%
Away Win % 33.0%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 524
Avg Brier Score 0.5822
Pick Accuracy 53.2%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.5812
Market Brier 0.5838
Blended Model Beats Market? Yes
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 1
Value Bet Hit Rate 0.0%
ROI (flat stake) -100.0%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • 100.0% of value bets are on 'away' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 1 of 524 matches had at least one · staked 1.00, profit -1.00 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
draw 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
away 1 0.0% 1.00 -1.00 -100.0%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 8.6% 0.0% 22
10–20% 15.9% 13.7% 256
20–30% 25.7% 26.3% 643
30–40% 34.9% 33.6% 211
40–50% 44.8% 46.2% 169
50–60% 55.0% 52.8% 125
60–70% 64.5% 71.2% 104
70–80% 73.6% 73.2% 41
80–90% 81.7% 100.0% 1
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
22.07.23 NK Bravo vs NK Rogaska 2-0 49% 53% -8.6 28% 30% -9.2 24% 26% -9.3
22.07.23 NK Koper vs NK Olimpija Ljubljana 2-1 29% 34% -14.1 28% 31% -8.7 43% 45% -5.8
22.07.23 NS Mura vs NK Domzale 2-3 48% 56% -14.3 27% 29% -6.4 26% 26% -2.5
23.07.23 Aluminij Kidricevo vs NK Celje 2-2 20% 24% -16.8 25% 27% -8.5 55% 58% -5.5
23.07.23 NK Radomlje vs NK Maribor 0-4 16% 20% -20.3 22% 25% -10.8 62% 65% -4.3
29.07.23 NK Koper vs NK Radomlje 1-0 57% 61% -7.0 25% 28% -10.7 18% 21% -13.0
29.07.23 NK Olimpija Ljubljana vs NK Rogaska 5-0 67% 75% -10.3 20% 20% -1.8 13% 13% -3.3
30.07.23 NK Celje vs NS Mura 5-0 48% 51% -7.2 27% 29% -8.8 26% 29% -13.0
30.07.23 NK Domzale vs NK Bravo 1-1 42% 48% -11.9 29% 31% -8.5 29% 31% -5.8
30.07.23 NK Maribor vs Aluminij Kidricevo 1-0 66% 72% -8.4 20% 22% -6.4 13% 15% -10.1
12.08.23 NK Olimpija Ljubljana vs NK Domzale 2-1 54% 62% -12.3 25% 26% -5.0 21% 21% -2.6
12.08.23 NK Radomlje vs Aluminij Kidricevo 0-2 38% 43% -11.1 28% 31% -7.6 34% 36% -7.3
13.08.23 NK Celje vs NK Rogaska 2-0 65% 72% -9.8 21% 22% -5.2 14% 15% -8.6
13.08.23 NK Maribor vs NK Bravo 2-1 60% 65% -8.9 23% 26% -8.5 17% 19% -10.7
14.08.23 NK Koper vs NS Mura 1-3 46% 52% -11.5 27% 29% -7.1 27% 29% -6.2
18.08.23 NK Bravo vs NK Koper 0-3 31% 34% -9.5 28% 31% -8.0 41% 45% -9.8
19.08.23 Aluminij Kidricevo vs NK Olimpija Ljubljana 4-5 18% 21% -14.1 24% 26% -8.0 58% 62% -7.7
19.08.23 NS Mura vs NK Radomlje 0-2 52% 56% -8.7 26% 29% -8.7 22% 25% -10.8
20.08.23 NK Domzale vs NK Celje 1-2 31% 36% -12.4 28% 31% -8.1 40% 43% -7.0
20.08.23 NK Rogaska vs NK Maribor 2-2 17% 20% -16.8 22% 23% -6.2 62% 67% -7.5
25.08.23 Aluminij Kidricevo vs NS Mura 0-1 36% 42% -14.1 27% 29% -7.1 37% 40% -7.8
26.08.23 NK Maribor vs NK Domzale 1-1 58% 63% -8.1 23% 25% -6.9 19% 21% -11.8
27.08.23 NK Olimpija Ljubljana vs NK Celje 2-4 41% 44% -7.5 28% 30% -7.9 31% 35% -11.7
27.08.23 NK Radomlje vs NK Bravo 1-2 34% 38% -9.6 29% 32% -9.1 37% 40% -8.6
02.09.23 NK Bravo vs Aluminij Kidricevo 2-0 47% 52% -8.9 27% 29% -7.3 26% 28% -8.0
02.09.23 NK Domzale vs NK Koper 1-2 36% 41% -10.9 29% 31% -8.5 35% 38% -8.9
03.09.23 NK Celje vs NK Maribor 2-0 41% 45% -9.4 27% 29% -6.9 31% 35% -10.4
03.09.23 NK Rogaska vs NK Radomlje 1-1 38% 43% -11.7 27% 29% -6.9 34% 38% -9.4
03.09.23 NS Mura vs NK Olimpija Ljubljana 1-3 25% 29% -15.1 26% 28% -6.9 49% 53% -6.6
16.09.23 Aluminij Kidricevo vs NK Rogaska 1-2 44% 49% -10.0 27% 29% -6.8 29% 31% -8.2
16.09.23 NK Olimpija Ljubljana vs NK Maribor 2-1 45% 52% -13.2 26% 27% -3.6 29% 31% -6.1
16.09.23 NS Mura vs NK Bravo 1-1 42% 47% -9.4 28% 31% -8.0 30% 32% -8.4
17.09.23 NK Koper vs NK Celje 1-1 27% 29% -8.8 31% 35% -11.4 42% 45% -6.9
17.09.23 NK Radomlje vs NK Domzale 3-1 30% 33% -11.1 28% 31% -7.9 42% 45% -7.5
22.09.23 NK Domzale vs Aluminij Kidricevo 2-1 54% 60% -9.8 25% 26% -6.6 22% 24% -10.8
23.09.23 NK Bravo vs NK Olimpija Ljubljana 4-2 23% 27% -15.7 26% 28% -7.8 52% 55% -6.1
23.09.23 NK Celje vs NK Radomlje 1-0 65% 68% -5.2 21% 24% -11.3 14% 17% -17.4
23.09.23 NK Rogaska vs NS Mura 0-2 33% 38% -11.5 28% 29% -6.2 39% 42% -7.5
24.09.23 NK Maribor vs NK Koper 0-1 45% 48% -6.3 27% 29% -7.6 28% 32% -12.5
27.09.23 NK Celje vs Aluminij Kidricevo 1-3 70% 75% -6.5 19% 21% -10.1 11% 13% -14.8
27.09.23 NK Domzale vs NS Mura 0-2 43% 48% -8.9 27% 29% -6.1 30% 33% -10.6
27.09.23 NK Rogaska vs NK Bravo 2-0 34% 38% -10.4 29% 31% -8.1 37% 41% -8.2
28.09.23 NK Maribor vs NK Radomlje 3-1 66% 71% -7.2 20% 22% -9.3 14% 16% -15.4
28.09.23 NK Olimpija Ljubljana vs NK Koper 1-1 51% 57% -10.0 26% 28% -7.7 23% 26% -10.5
30.09.23 NK Bravo vs NK Domzale 3-2 37% 42% -11.2 29% 32% -9.7 34% 37% -8.6
30.09.23 NS Mura vs NK Celje 0-2 25% 29% -13.7 27% 29% -8.2 48% 51% -7.2
01.10.23 Aluminij Kidricevo vs NK Maribor 1-0 19% 23% -15.9 24% 26% -7.8 56% 60% -6.5
01.10.23 NK Radomlje vs NK Koper 1-1 25% 29% -11.6 28% 30% -8.6 47% 51% -8.2
01.10.23 NK Rogaska vs NK Olimpija Ljubljana 0-2 17% 20% -16.4 23% 25% -8.0 60% 64% -5.4
07.10.23 NK Celje vs NK Bravo 2-1 61% 66% -6.9 23% 26% -10.8 15% 17% -12.2
07.10.23 NK Maribor vs NS Mura 3-1 57% 62% -8.4 24% 26% -7.7 19% 22% -12.3
08.10.23 NK Domzale vs NK Rogaska 3-0 50% 53% -7.0 27% 29% -9.1 24% 27% -11.9
08.10.23 NK Koper vs Aluminij Kidricevo 4-1 57% 61% -7.3 25% 28% -10.4 18% 21% -12.4
08.10.23 NK Olimpija Ljubljana vs NK Radomlje 1-1 67% 72% -7.7 20% 22% -8.5 13% 15% -14.1
21.10.23 NK Domzale vs NK Olimpija Ljubljana 0-2 25% 29% -14.5 26% 28% -6.7 49% 53% -7.1
21.10.23 NK Rogaska vs NK Celje 0-4 16% 18% -13.3 23% 25% -7.6 61% 66% -7.7
22.10.23 Aluminij Kidricevo vs NK Radomlje 0-2 39% 43% -11.0 28% 29% -6.5 34% 37% -8.8
22.10.23 NK Bravo vs NK Maribor 2-1 23% 26% -12.7 26% 29% -7.7 51% 55% -7.8
22.10.23 NS Mura vs NK Koper 2-2 31% 34% -9.2 28% 29% -6.5 42% 47% -10.3
27.10.23 NK Celje vs NK Domzale 3-1 66% 72% -8.9 20% 22% -6.4 14% 16% -11.7
28.10.23 NK Koper vs NK Bravo 1-1 52% 56% -7.1 26% 29% -10.0 22% 25% -12.4
28.10.23 NK Maribor vs NK Rogaska 2-1 72% 78% -6.5 17% 19% -9.1 10% 12% -15.4
29.10.23 NK Olimpija Ljubljana vs Aluminij Kidricevo 0-0 67% 73% -8.0 20% 21% -6.2 13% 15% -11.4
29.10.23 NK Radomlje vs NS Mura 1-1 37% 42% -10.9 27% 29% -5.2 36% 39% -8.7
04.11.23 NK Domzale vs NK Maribor 1-2 26% 31% -15.9 26% 29% -7.7 47% 51% -6.2
04.11.23 NK Rogaska vs NK Koper 0-1 23% 27% -12.9 26% 29% -7.7 50% 55% -7.8
04.11.23 NS Mura vs Aluminij Kidricevo 1-0 46% 50% -8.6 28% 30% -8.5 27% 29% -9.7
05.11.23 NK Bravo vs NK Radomlje 0-2 46% 52% -10.5 27% 29% -7.4 26% 29% -7.6
05.11.23 NK Celje vs NK Olimpija Ljubljana 0-1 44% 51% -12.3 27% 29% -7.0 28% 30% -6.5
10.11.23 Aluminij Kidricevo vs NK Bravo 1-1 33% 36% -9.4 29% 32% -8.8 38% 41% -7.8
11.11.23 NK Koper vs NK Domzale 0-1 54% 60% -9.7 25% 27% -6.9 21% 23% -8.7
11.11.23 NK Radomlje vs NK Rogaska 1-3 51% 58% -11.2 25% 27% -5.8 23% 25% -7.2
12.11.23 NK Maribor vs NK Celje 0-1 37% 42% -11.9 29% 31% -8.1 34% 36% -6.2
12.11.23 NK Olimpija Ljubljana vs NS Mura 1-0 64% 69% -7.5 21% 23% -7.1 15% 17% -12.0
25.11.23 NK Radomlje vs NK Olimpija Ljubljana 0-2 20% 23% -14.4 24% 26% -7.2 56% 60% -7.4
25.11.23 NK Rogaska vs NK Domzale 1-2 31% 36% -14.2 28% 30% -8.0 41% 43% -5.9
26.11.23 Aluminij Kidricevo vs NK Koper 3-2 25% 29% -11.2 28% 30% -8.2 47% 51% -7.3
26.11.23 NK Bravo vs NK Celje 0-2 23% 27% -15.5 27% 29% -9.3 50% 53% -5.1
26.11.23 NS Mura vs NK Maribor 0-0 29% 31% -6.0 27% 29% -6.0 44% 51% -13.8
02.12.23 NK Celje vs NK Koper 0-0 55% 61% -10.1 24% 26% -5.2 21% 22% -7.7
02.12.23 NK Domzale vs NK Radomlje 3-0 43% 47% -8.1 28% 31% -9.1 29% 33% -12.2
03.12.23 NK Bravo vs NS Mura 2-0 40% 44% -9.3 29% 31% -8.3 31% 34% -8.4
03.12.23 NK Maribor vs NK Olimpija Ljubljana 3-1 39% 43% -11.4 27% 29% -5.5 34% 38% -8.7
05.12.23 NK Radomlje vs NK Celje 0-4 18% 21% -14.7 26% 29% -10.3 56% 60% -5.2
06.12.23 Aluminij Kidricevo vs NK Domzale 0-5 32% 36% -9.2 28% 30% -7.6 40% 44% -10.9
06.12.23 NK Koper vs NK Maribor 3-3 34% 38% -10.8 28% 30% -7.2 38% 42% -8.3
07.12.23 NK Olimpija Ljubljana vs NK Bravo 1-1 62% 68% -9.2 22% 24% -6.0 15% 17% -7.2
07.12.23 NS Mura vs NK Rogaska 3-1 53% 57% -7.9 25% 28% -8.4 22% 25% -12.3
09.12.23 Aluminij Kidricevo vs NK Celje 1-3 11% 13% -12.8 20% 21% -6.4 69% 76% -8.6
10.12.23 NK Bravo vs NK Rogaska 3-2 50% 56% -9.9 27% 29% -7.9 23% 24% -6.1
10.12.23 NK Koper vs NK Olimpija Ljubljana 2-4 31% 35% -11.7 27% 29% -5.8 42% 47% -9.0
10.12.23 NS Mura vs NK Domzale 1-0 39% 41% -5.4 28% 31% -8.9 33% 39% -14.9
11.12.23 NK Radomlje vs NK Maribor 2-2 17% 19% -11.3 23% 24% -4.8 60% 67% -9.9
14.12.23 NK Celje vs NK Koper 2-0 59% 64% -7.6 23% 25% -7.8 18% 21% -13.2
16.12.23 NK Rogaska vs Aluminij Kidricevo 0-1 37% 39% -6.3 29% 32% -9.8 34% 39% -12.9
10.02.24 NK Domzale vs NK Bravo 1-3 39% 43% -9.2 29% 32% -9.5 31% 34% -9.1
10.02.24 NK Koper vs NK Radomlje 0-1 51% 53% -4.6 27% 31% -12.1 22% 26% -15.6
10.02.24 NK Olimpija Ljubljana vs NK Rogaska 2-2 76% 82% -7.7 16% 17% -5.5 9% 10% -10.2
11.02.24 NK Celje vs NS Mura 4-1 67% 71% -6.0 20% 22% -10.2 13% 15% -16.1
11.02.24 NK Maribor vs Aluminij Kidricevo 7-0 72% 76% -5.5 17% 19% -9.8 11% 13% -17.5
Showing the 100 most recent of 524 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

10 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 NK Celje 1959.95
2 NK Maribor 1930.40
3 NK Koper 1898.57
4 NK Olimpija Ljubljana 1884.13
5 NK Bravo 1775.63
6 NS Mura 1759.56
7 NK Nafta Lendava 1747.07
8 Aluminij Kidricevo 1739.29
9 NK Radomlje 1718.01
10 Brinje Grosuplje 1717.80

Away Ratings

10 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 NK Maribor 1909.10
2 NK Olimpija Ljubljana 1889.34
3 NK Koper 1876.72
4 NK Celje 1871.11
5 NS Mura 1764.19
6 NK Bravo 1761.89
7 NK Nafta Lendava 1719.43
8 Aluminij Kidricevo 1719.22
9 Brinje Grosuplje 1682.21
10 NK Radomlje 1653.24