ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 655
Avg Goals 2.49
Avg Home 1.33
Avg Away 1.17
Home Win % 39.8%
Draw % 27.8%
Away Win % 32.4%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 655
Avg Brier Score 0.6483
Pick Accuracy 42.4%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.6493
Market Brier 0.6487
Blended Model Beats Market? Yes
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 26
Value Bet Hit Rate 11.5%
ROI (flat stake) -34.6%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • 73.1% of value bets are on 'away' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 26 of 655 matches had at least one · staked 26.00, profit -9.00 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 7 0.0% 7.00 -7.00 -100.0%
draw 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
away 19 15.8% 19.00 -2.00 -10.5%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
10–20% 18.3% 6.7% 15
20–30% 27.6% 26.9% 840
30–40% 34.2% 34.9% 742
40–50% 43.9% 44.0% 309
50–60% 52.6% 56.1% 57
60–70% 61.9% 50.0% 2
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
04.08.23 FC Seoul vs Pohang Steelers 2-2 35% 37% -5.6 30% 31% -4.6 35% 38% -8.4
04.08.23 Gwangju FC vs Daejeon Citizen 3-0 42% 47% -10.0 30% 31% -5.2 29% 29% -2.9
05.08.23 Daegu vs Ulsan Hyundai 0-0 31% 32% -4.7 29% 31% -4.3 40% 44% -10.4
06.08.23 Jeju United vs Gangwon FC 1-1 47% 53% -12.5 28% 29% -2.9 26% 26% 0.4
06.08.23 Jeonbuk Motors vs Incheon United 2-0 43% 49% -11.4 29% 30% -4.6 28% 29% -2.4
12.08.23 Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai 2-0 24% 24% 2.7 28% 29% -1.8 48% 55% -13.5
12.08.23 Jeju United vs Suwon FC 3-0 49% 56% -13.3 26% 26% 1.1 25% 25% 1.6
12.08.23 Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon Bluewings 1-1 52% 60% -14.0 27% 27% -1.6 22% 20% 7.8
13.08.23 Daejeon Citizen vs FC Seoul 4-3 33% 34% -5.5 29% 29% -2.9 39% 43% -10.7
13.08.23 Incheon United vs Daegu 3-1 37% 41% -8.4 31% 33% -7.4 32% 34% -6.4
13.08.23 Pohang Steelers vs Gwangju FC 1-1 47% 54% -12.8 28% 29% -3.8 25% 24% 3.1
18.08.23 Incheon United vs Gwangju FC 2-2 36% 38% -6.7 31% 33% -7.0 33% 36% -7.3
18.08.23 Suwon Bluewings vs Jeju United 1-0 33% 35% -5.5 29% 31% -4.5 37% 42% -10.1
19.08.23 FC Seoul vs Daegu 2-2 42% 48% -11.4 29% 31% -5.1 29% 29% -2.7
19.08.23 Gangwon FC vs Suwon FC 1-2 41% 47% -11.1 28% 29% -3.1 30% 31% -3.5
19.08.23 Ulsan Hyundai vs Jeonbuk Motors 1-0 40% 44% -10.9 29% 30% -5.0 32% 34% -6.8
20.08.23 Pohang Steelers vs Daejeon Citizen 4-3 52% 60% -14.5 26% 26% 0.2 23% 22% 4.9
25.08.23 Jeonbuk Motors vs Daejeon Citizen 1-1 51% 60% -14.1 26% 26% 0.3 23% 22% 4.2
25.08.23 Suwon FC vs Incheon United 1-2 35% 38% -9.7 28% 29% -1.6 37% 40% -7.0
26.08.23 Daegu vs Jeju United 1-0 40% 44% -9.9 29% 31% -4.8 31% 32% -5.0
26.08.23 Gangwon FC vs Pohang Steelers 1-1 29% 30% -4.3 29% 30% -4.3 42% 48% -11.8
27.08.23 FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai 2-2 35% 38% -7.9 28% 29% -3.3 37% 41% -9.8
27.08.23 Gwangju FC vs Suwon Bluewings 4-0 46% 53% -12.8 29% 31% -5.4 25% 24% 2.9
01.09.23 Daegu vs Gangwon FC 1-0 43% 49% -11.4 30% 32% -6.5 27% 27% -0.2
01.09.23 Daejeon Citizen vs Suwon FC 0-1 45% 52% -12.6 26% 26% 0.7 28% 29% -1.2
02.09.23 Incheon United vs Pohang Steelers 0-2 32% 34% -5.2 29% 31% -4.2 38% 43% -9.8
02.09.23 Suwon Bluewings vs FC Seoul 0-1 30% 31% -2.9 30% 32% -5.7 40% 44% -10.7
03.09.23 Jeju United vs Jeonbuk Motors 0-0 33% 36% -6.9 29% 31% -4.8 37% 42% -10.1
03.09.23 Ulsan Hyundai vs Gwangju FC 0-2 46% 53% -12.8 28% 29% -3.9 26% 26% 0.7
16.09.23 Incheon United vs Jeju United 2-1 38% 42% -9.7 29% 30% -4.6 33% 36% -7.9
16.09.23 Jeonbuk Motors vs Gangwon FC 1-3 50% 58% -14.0 27% 28% -2.5 23% 22% 4.3
16.09.23 Pohang Steelers vs Suwon FC 2-0 56% 67% -15.6 23% 22% 6.0 21% 19% 8.7
16.09.23 Ulsan Hyundai vs Daejeon Citizen 1-1 50% 57% -13.4 26% 26% 0.6 25% 24% 1.3
17.09.23 FC Seoul vs Gwangju FC 0-1 40% 44% -9.8 29% 30% -4.0 31% 32% -4.5
23.09.23 Daejeon Citizen vs Suwon Bluewings 3-1 42% 48% -11.1 28% 29% -2.6 30% 31% -4.5
23.09.23 Jeju United vs FC Seoul 1-3 35% 37% -6.7 28% 29% -3.5 37% 42% -11.0
24.09.23 Daegu vs Pohang Steelers 0-0 32% 34% -4.9 30% 32% -6.0 37% 42% -10.1
24.09.23 Gangwon FC vs Incheon United 1-1 38% 42% -9.9 30% 32% -6.1 32% 34% -5.1
24.09.23 Gwangju FC vs Jeonbuk Motors 0-1 35% 39% -10.5 29% 30% -4.1 36% 38% -6.8
24.09.23 Suwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai 2-3 24% 23% 4.0 25% 24% 4.0 51% 60% -14.9
30.09.23 Incheon United vs Suwon Bluewings 2-0 46% 54% -14.0 28% 29% -3.8 25% 24% 3.4
30.09.23 Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu 1-3 41% 45% -10.4 30% 32% -6.6 29% 30% -3.9
30.09.23 Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai 0-0 36% 39% -8.1 29% 30% -3.9 35% 38% -7.7
30.09.23 Suwon FC vs FC Seoul 1-1 28% 28% -0.1 27% 27% 0.7 45% 53% -13.7
01.10.23 Gangwon FC vs Daejeon Citizen 1-1 38% 43% -9.8 29% 30% -4.4 33% 35% -7.0
01.10.23 Jeju United vs Gwangju FC 1-2 35% 37% -6.1 30% 31% -5.1 36% 39% -9.3
08.10.23 Daejeon Citizen vs Jeju United 1-0 38% 42% -9.2 28% 29% -2.1 34% 37% -7.7
08.10.23 FC Seoul vs Jeonbuk Motors 0-2 39% 43% -10.7 29% 29% -3.0 33% 34% -5.3
08.10.23 Gwangju FC vs Gangwon FC 1-0 45% 51% -12.0 28% 29% -3.7 27% 27% -0.4
08.10.23 Suwon Bluewings vs Pohang Steelers 1-0 25% 25% 0.4 28% 29% -2.0 47% 54% -13.2
08.10.23 Ulsan Hyundai vs Incheon United 0-0 47% 54% -13.8 27% 28% -1.7 26% 26% 1.8
20.10.23 Pohang Steelers vs Incheon United 1-1 45% 52% -12.4 29% 30% -4.3 26% 25% 2.4
21.10.23 Daegu vs Jeonbuk Motors 1-2 33% 34% -3.8 30% 32% -5.6 37% 41% -9.5
21.10.23 Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai 1-0 32% 34% -4.4 29% 31% -4.3 38% 43% -10.4
22.10.23 Daejeon Citizen vs Suwon FC 1-1 43% 49% -11.8 28% 29% -2.7 29% 30% -3.8
22.10.23 FC Seoul vs Gangwon FC 2-1 48% 55% -13.1 28% 29% -3.1 25% 24% 1.7
22.10.23 Jeju United vs Suwon Bluewings 2-0 45% 51% -11.8 28% 29% -2.4 27% 27% -0.4
28.10.23 Gangwon FC vs Jeju United 1-1 35% 38% -7.0 30% 32% -6.1 35% 38% -8.3
28.10.23 Gwangju FC vs Incheon United 0-2 50% 60% -16.7 27% 28% -1.1 22% 19% 17.3
28.10.23 Jeonbuk Motors vs Pohang Steelers 1-1 39% 43% -10.5 29% 31% -4.6 32% 33% -4.8
29.10.23 Suwon Bluewings vs Daejeon Citizen 2-2 36% 38% -7.4 28% 29% -1.9 36% 40% -9.2
29.10.23 Suwon FC vs FC Seoul 3-4 29% 29% -2.7 27% 28% -1.6 44% 51% -14.1
29.10.23 Ulsan Hyundai vs Daegu 2-0 49% 56% -13.9 27% 28% -1.9 24% 23% 4.4
11.11.23 Daegu vs Gwangju FC 1-1 33% 35% -4.4 30% 32% -5.7 36% 40% -9.3
11.11.23 Daejeon Citizen vs Gangwon FC 0-1 40% 44% -10.0 28% 29% -3.1 32% 33% -5.5
11.11.23 Jeju United vs FC Seoul 0-0 35% 38% -7.2 29% 30% -3.9 36% 39% -8.6
12.11.23 Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors 1-1 32% 34% -5.0 30% 31% -5.0 38% 43% -10.4
12.11.23 Ulsan Hyundai vs Pohang Steelers 3-2 39% 43% -8.3 29% 30% -4.3 32% 34% -7.2
24.11.23 Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai 3-1 35% 38% -7.5 30% 31% -4.4 35% 38% -6.6
25.11.23 FC Seoul vs Suwon Bluewings 0-1 50% 58% -13.9 26% 26% -0.6 24% 23% 2.9
25.11.23 Gangwon FC vs Suwon FC 2-0 43% 49% -11.7 29% 30% -4.6 28% 29% -2.0
25.11.23 Jeju United vs Daejeon Citizen 0-2 42% 48% -11.5 27% 28% -1.7 31% 32% -5.3
25.11.23 Jeonbuk Motors vs Gwangju FC 2-0 42% 47% -9.4 29% 31% -4.6 28% 29% -3.1
25.11.23 Pohang Steelers vs Daegu 1-0 44% 49% -10.1 29% 31% -5.3 27% 28% -2.8
02.12.23 Daejeon Citizen vs FC Seoul 2-2 39% 43% -10.8 27% 28% -1.3 34% 36% -7.0
02.12.23 Suwon Bluewings vs Gangwon FC 0-0 37% 41% -9.2 29% 30% -4.5 34% 37% -8.2
02.12.23 Suwon FC vs Jeju United 1-1 38% 43% -10.4 28% 29% -2.1 34% 36% -6.7
03.12.23 Daegu vs Incheon United 2-1 36% 39% -7.4 29% 30% -4.0 35% 38% -8.4
03.12.23 Gwangju FC vs Pohang Steelers 0-0 47% 55% -15.2 27% 28% -1.6 26% 25% 4.2
03.12.23 Ulsan Hyundai vs Jeonbuk Motors 1-0 37% 40% -6.8 28% 29% -2.2 35% 38% -9.6
09.12.23 Gangwon FC vs Gimpo FC 2-1 51% 60% -13.9 28% 29% -4.0 21% 18% 12.8
01.03.24 Jeonbuk Motors vs Daejeon Citizen 1-1 52% 60% -13.4 26% 27% -1.3 22% 21% 5.1
01.03.24 Ulsan Hyundai vs Pohang Steelers 1-0 48% 56% -15.1 27% 28% -1.8 25% 24% 5.1
02.03.24 Gangwon FC vs Jeju United 1-1 35% 38% -7.0 32% 35% -8.0 33% 35% -5.7
02.03.24 Gwangju FC vs FC Seoul 2-0 38% 42% -9.2 30% 31% -5.4 32% 34% -6.8
02.03.24 Incheon United vs Suwon FC 0-1 45% 51% -11.3 28% 29% -4.2 26% 27% -2.5
03.03.24 Daegu vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0-1 41% 45% -9.5 30% 31% -5.1 29% 30% -3.5
09.03.24 Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai 2-3 31% 33% -7.2 30% 32% -6.1 39% 43% -8.9
09.03.24 Pohang Steelers vs Daegu 3-1 37% 39% -6.0 31% 33% -7.3 32% 35% -8.1
09.03.24 Suwon FC vs Jeonbuk Motors 1-1 30% 31% -4.0 29% 29% -3.1 42% 48% -11.9
10.03.24 FC Seoul vs Incheon United 0-0 37% 40% -7.2 30% 32% -6.5 33% 36% -8.4
10.03.24 Gwangju FC vs Gangwon FC 4-2 47% 53% -12.1 30% 32% -6.6 23% 22% 6.1
10.03.24 Jeju United vs Daejeon Citizen 3-1 39% 43% -10.1 29% 31% -4.7 32% 33% -5.2
16.03.24 Daejeon Citizen vs Gangwon FC 1-1 41% 45% -10.2 30% 31% -5.3 30% 31% -3.9
16.03.24 FC Seoul vs Jeju United 2-0 40% 43% -8.9 29% 31% -5.8 31% 33% -7.2
17.03.24 Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors 1-0 32% 33% -5.4 29% 30% -3.6 39% 43% -9.7
17.03.24 Pohang Steelers vs Gwangju FC 1-0 36% 39% -7.3 30% 32% -6.3 33% 36% -8.1
17.03.24 Ulsan Hyundai vs Incheon United 3-3 47% 54% -13.4 29% 30% -5.2 24% 24% 2.6
30.03.24 Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen 2-0 43% 49% -11.1 29% 30% -4.7 28% 29% -2.8
30.03.24 Jeju United vs Pohang Steelers 0-2 36% 38% -7.3 30% 32% -5.7 34% 36% -6.7
Showing the 100 most recent of 655 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

12 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 FC Seoul 2015.30
2 Gangwon FC 2002.98
3 Daejeon Citizen 1988.81
4 Jeonbuk Motors 1956.53
5 Ulsan Hyundai 1924.74
6 Incheon United 1901.79
7 Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1856.59
8 FC Anyang 1853.36
9 Pohang Steelers 1847.10
10 Jeju United 1830.15
11 Bucheon FC 1995 1774.26
12 Gwangju FC 1723.01

Away Ratings

12 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 FC Seoul 2005.91
2 Daejeon Citizen 1953.08
3 Ulsan Hyundai 1933.61
4 Jeonbuk Motors 1931.14
5 Incheon United 1865.18
6 Gangwon FC 1861.17
7 Jeju United 1843.73
8 Pohang Steelers 1783.70
9 Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1775.00
10 FC Anyang 1741.80
11 Bucheon FC 1995 1731.11
12 Gwangju FC 1706.61