ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 1122
Avg Goals 2.66
Avg Home 1.50
Avg Away 1.15
Home Win % 45.9%
Draw % 25.7%
Away Win % 28.4%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
Calculating…
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 1122
Avg Brier Score 0.5622
Pick Accuracy 55.1%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.5664
Market Brier 0.5641
Blended Model Beats Market? Yes
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 0
Value Bet Hit Rate -
ROI (flat stake) -
ROI Trustworthy? No
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 0 of 1122 matches had at least one · staked 0.00, profit 0.00 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
draw 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
away 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 7.6% 4.7% 128
10–20% 15.8% 13.3% 487
20–30% 26.0% 24.8% 1154
30–40% 33.6% 33.7% 712
40–50% 45.0% 46.9% 350
50–60% 55.0% 58.4% 257
60–70% 64.4% 66.9% 133
70–80% 74.7% 82.2% 107
80–90% 83.5% 89.5% 38
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
11.08.23 Sevilla FC vs FC Valencia 1-2 47% 51% -7.0 29% 31% -5.8 24% 24% -1.6
11.08.23 UD Almeria vs Rayo Vallecano 0-2 37% 38% -4.7 30% 32% -6.5 33% 36% -7.1
12.08.23 Athletic Bilbao vs Real Madrid 0-2 28% 31% -8.8 28% 29% -3.9 43% 45% -4.8
12.08.23 Real Sociedad vs Girona FC 1-1 56% 58% -2.6 26% 28% -7.5 18% 20% -9.9
12.08.23 UD Las Palmas vs RCD Mallorca 1-1 37% 40% -7.3 32% 35% -7.9 31% 31% 0.2
13.08.23 Celta de Vigo vs CA Osasuna 0-2 46% 49% -5.9 29% 31% -6.2 25% 26% -3.3
13.08.23 Getafe CF vs FC Barcelona 0-0 13% 15% -13.5 24% 26% -7.5 63% 65% -2.4
13.08.23 Villarreal CF vs Betis Sevilla 1-2 56% 58% -3.5 24% 26% -4.7 19% 22% -10.6
14.08.23 Atletico Madrid vs Granada CF 3-1 76% 76% -0.7 16% 18% -14.2 9% 11% -22.6
14.08.23 Cadiz CF vs CD Alaves 1-0 44% 44% -0.0 31% 34% -10.0 25% 27% -9.2
18.08.23 FC Valencia vs UD Las Palmas 1-0 63% 63% -0.3 23% 26% -10.8 14% 17% -15.7
18.08.23 RCD Mallorca vs Villarreal CF 0-1 32% 37% -14.6 29% 31% -6.0 39% 38% 3.4
19.08.23 CA Osasuna vs Athletic Bilbao 0-2 32% 34% -6.9 31% 34% -7.5 37% 38% -3.1
19.08.23 Real Sociedad vs Celta de Vigo 1-1 57% 58% -1.8 27% 29% -9.4 17% 18% -8.8
19.08.23 UD Almeria vs Real Madrid 1-3 14% 16% -13.0 20% 20% 0.8 66% 69% -5.1
20.08.23 Betis Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid 0-0 24% 27% -9.9 28% 29% -5.0 48% 50% -4.0
20.08.23 FC Barcelona vs Cadiz CF 2-0 79% 79% -0.7 14% 17% -14.0 7% 9% -21.1
20.08.23 Girona FC vs Getafe CF 3-0 52% 51% 1.5 29% 32% -10.9 19% 22% -11.6
21.08.23 CD Alaves vs Sevilla FC 4-3 25% 29% -14.0 31% 34% -9.5 45% 43% 3.0
21.08.23 Granada CF vs Rayo Vallecano 0-2 33% 37% -9.9 31% 33% -7.1 36% 36% -0.2
25.08.23 Celta de Vigo vs Real Madrid 0-1 20% 23% -13.4 25% 26% -4.1 55% 56% -3.1
25.08.23 UD Las Palmas vs Real Sociedad 0-0 19% 23% -15.8 28% 31% -9.8 52% 51% 2.1
26.08.23 Granada CF vs RCD Mallorca 3-2 34% 37% -8.6 32% 34% -7.9 34% 34% -0.3
26.08.23 Sevilla FC vs Girona FC 1-2 47% 52% -9.3 28% 29% -3.3 25% 26% -0.9
27.08.23 Athletic Bilbao vs Betis Sevilla 4-2 51% 52% -0.9 27% 29% -7.8 22% 24% -11.8
27.08.23 FC Valencia vs CA Osasuna 1-2 54% 57% -5.3 28% 30% -8.5 18% 19% -4.6
27.08.23 Villarreal CF vs FC Barcelona 3-4 26% 31% -14.3 27% 28% -3.8 47% 48% -1.5
28.08.23 Getafe CF vs CD Alaves 1-0 44% 42% 4.4 33% 38% -13.2 23% 26% -11.8
28.08.23 Rayo Vallecano vs Atletico Madrid 0-7 23% 26% -11.3 29% 31% -7.2 48% 49% -1.1
01.09.23 Cadiz CF vs Villarreal CF 3-1 28% 31% -10.6 28% 29% -3.0 44% 45% -2.4
01.09.23 UD Almeria vs Celta de Vigo 2-3 33% 36% -9.0 29% 31% -5.1 38% 40% -4.3
02.09.23 Betis Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano 1-0 47% 49% -4.5 28% 29% -4.6 25% 27% -6.1
02.09.23 CD Alaves vs FC Valencia 1-0 28% 32% -12.6 32% 35% -9.2 40% 39% 2.5
02.09.23 Real Madrid vs Getafe CF 2-1 74% 73% 1.9 18% 22% -19.1 8% 11% -23.9
02.09.23 Real Sociedad vs Granada CF 5-3 69% 69% -0.2 20% 23% -12.8 11% 13% -18.6
03.09.23 CA Osasuna vs FC Barcelona 1-2 14% 17% -13.5 22% 23% -3.7 63% 66% -3.7
03.09.23 Girona FC vs UD Las Palmas 1-0 57% 58% -1.1 25% 27% -8.2 18% 21% -13.6
03.09.23 RCD Mallorca vs Athletic Bilbao 0-0 29% 32% -9.8 31% 34% -7.5 40% 39% 0.9
15.09.23 Rayo Vallecano vs CD Alaves 2-0 47% 49% -2.7 29% 32% -8.6 23% 25% -7.8
16.09.23 Athletic Bilbao vs Cadiz CF 3-0 62% 63% -1.4 24% 27% -10.9 14% 16% -13.6
16.09.23 Celta de Vigo vs RCD Mallorca 0-1 47% 49% -3.6 30% 32% -7.7 23% 24% -4.8
16.09.23 FC Barcelona vs Betis Sevilla 5-0 75% 76% -0.6 16% 18% -12.5 9% 11% -21.0
16.09.23 FC Valencia vs Atletico Madrid 3-0 27% 29% -9.3 29% 31% -6.0 44% 45% -3.3
17.09.23 Getafe CF vs CA Osasuna 3-2 39% 40% -3.7 33% 36% -10.1 29% 30% -5.0
17.09.23 Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad 2-1 59% 60% -1.4 24% 26% -8.4 17% 19% -13.3
17.09.23 Sevilla FC vs UD Las Palmas 1-0 61% 64% -4.2 23% 25% -6.6 16% 17% -10.3
17.09.23 Villarreal CF vs UD Almeria 2-1 64% 67% -3.6 20% 21% -3.2 16% 18% -14.4
18.09.23 Granada CF vs Girona FC 2-4 32% 36% -10.5 28% 29% -3.6 40% 41% -2.8
22.09.23 CD Alaves vs Athletic Bilbao 0-2 22% 24% -10.5 30% 33% -9.3 48% 49% -1.7
23.09.23 CA Osasuna vs Sevilla FC 0-0 39% 43% -10.6 30% 31% -5.2 31% 31% 0.7
23.09.23 FC Barcelona vs Celta de Vigo 3-2 79% 80% -1.7 14% 16% -11.6 7% 9% -20.2
23.09.23 Girona FC vs RCD Mallorca 5-3 50% 53% -5.2 28% 30% -6.5 22% 23% -4.3
23.09.23 UD Almeria vs FC Valencia 2-2 32% 35% -10.2 29% 30% -4.6 40% 41% -3.0
24.09.23 Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid 3-1 33% 37% -11.4 29% 30% -4.4 38% 38% -0.6
24.09.23 Betis Sevilla vs Cadiz CF 1-1 55% 56% -1.1 26% 29% -8.0 19% 21% -10.9
24.09.23 Rayo Vallecano vs Villarreal CF 1-1 35% 40% -12.0 28% 29% -3.8 36% 37% -1.4
24.09.23 Real Sociedad vs Getafe CF 4-3 60% 60% 0.3 26% 30% -13.7 13% 15% -12.7
26.09.23 RCD Mallorca vs FC Barcelona 2-2 12% 15% -20.9 21% 24% -11.1 67% 67% 0.0
26.09.23 Sevilla FC vs UD Almeria 5-1 58% 61% -4.9 24% 26% -5.3 18% 20% -9.6
27.09.23 Athletic Bilbao vs Getafe CF 2-2 64% 65% -1.9 23% 26% -11.3 13% 14% -12.4
27.09.23 Cadiz CF vs Rayo Vallecano 0-0 36% 38% -7.5 31% 33% -7.1 33% 34% -2.9
27.09.23 FC Valencia vs Real Sociedad 0-1 37% 41% -9.0 31% 34% -7.4 31% 31% 0.6
27.09.23 Real Madrid vs UD Las Palmas 2-0 82% 83% -1.4 12% 14% -12.8 6% 7% -21.7
27.09.23 Villarreal CF vs Girona FC 1-2 45% 48% -5.9 27% 28% -2.9 28% 31% -8.2
28.09.23 CA Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid 0-2 22% 25% -12.2 28% 30% -6.9 50% 51% -1.3
28.09.23 Celta de Vigo vs CD Alaves 1-1 60% 61% -2.4 25% 27% -8.8 16% 17% -10.9
28.09.23 Granada CF vs Betis Sevilla 1-1 31% 35% -10.3 28% 29% -3.3 40% 41% -1.8
29.09.23 FC Barcelona vs Sevilla FC 1-0 72% 73% -1.8 17% 19% -8.6 11% 13% -18.3
30.09.23 Getafe CF vs Villarreal CF 0-0 34% 38% -10.2 30% 32% -6.0 36% 36% 0.2
30.09.23 Girona FC vs Real Madrid 0-3 22% 26% -16.6 25% 26% -3.6 53% 53% -0.3
30.09.23 Rayo Vallecano vs RCD Mallorca 2-2 48% 51% -5.1 29% 31% -6.8 23% 24% -3.6
30.09.23 Real Sociedad vs Athletic Bilbao 3-0 42% 44% -5.2 30% 32% -6.3 28% 29% -3.3
01.10.23 Atletico Madrid vs Cadiz CF 3-2 74% 75% -0.9 17% 19% -12.0 9% 11% -19.1
01.10.23 Betis Sevilla vs FC Valencia 3-0 44% 48% -6.9 29% 31% -5.6 26% 27% -1.8
01.10.23 CD Alaves vs CA Osasuna 0-2 37% 41% -9.1 31% 34% -7.4 32% 31% 0.8
02.10.23 UD Las Palmas vs Celta de Vigo 2-1 33% 35% -7.3 30% 32% -6.0 37% 38% -3.4
06.10.23 Athletic Bilbao vs UD Almeria 3-0 73% 75% -2.8 17% 18% -5.9 10% 11% -14.1
07.10.23 Cadiz CF vs Girona FC 0-1 28% 31% -10.2 29% 30% -5.0 43% 44% -2.9
07.10.23 RCD Mallorca vs FC Valencia 1-1 36% 41% -10.7 31% 34% -7.4 32% 31% 2.9
07.10.23 Real Madrid vs CA Osasuna 4-0 78% 79% -1.6 15% 17% -11.1 8% 10% -19.5
07.10.23 Sevilla FC vs Rayo Vallecano 2-2 52% 53% -1.6 27% 29% -7.0 21% 24% -11.4
08.10.23 Atletico Madrid vs Real Sociedad 2-1 50% 51% -2.0 28% 31% -7.9 22% 24% -9.2
08.10.23 CD Alaves vs Betis Sevilla 1-1 32% 38% -14.7 30% 32% -6.7 38% 36% 5.7
08.10.23 Celta de Vigo vs Getafe CF 2-2 49% 51% -3.3 28% 31% -7.8 23% 25% -8.8
08.10.23 Granada CF vs FC Barcelona 2-2 12% 15% -21.4 19% 20% -7.3 70% 70% -0.2
08.10.23 Villarreal CF vs UD Las Palmas 1-2 59% 62% -4.6 24% 25% -5.4 17% 19% -10.1
20.10.23 CA Osasuna vs Granada CF 2-0 56% 60% -7.3 25% 26% -4.3 19% 20% -5.1
21.10.23 Celta de Vigo vs Atletico Madrid 0-3 25% 29% -12.4 28% 29% -5.1 47% 48% -1.2
21.10.23 Getafe CF vs Betis Sevilla 1-1 37% 42% -11.8 30% 32% -5.9 32% 31% 3.8
21.10.23 Real Sociedad vs RCD Mallorca 1-0 63% 63% -0.0 24% 27% -11.7 13% 15% -13.3
21.10.23 Sevilla FC vs Real Madrid 1-1 20% 23% -11.2 25% 26% -2.4 55% 57% -4.1
22.10.23 FC Barcelona vs Athletic Bilbao 1-0 57% 58% -2.1 24% 26% -7.4 19% 22% -14.4
22.10.23 Girona FC vs UD Almeria 5-2 69% 72% -4.7 19% 20% -4.0 12% 14% -11.4
22.10.23 UD Las Palmas vs Rayo Vallecano 0-1 36% 38% -6.1 31% 33% -6.8 33% 34% -3.1
22.10.23 Villarreal CF vs CD Alaves 1-1 49% 51% -2.8 28% 30% -7.8 23% 26% -10.4
23.10.23 FC Valencia vs Cadiz CF 2-0 57% 58% -3.1 26% 28% -7.0 18% 19% -8.0
27.10.23 Girona FC vs Celta de Vigo 1-0 55% 58% -6.2 24% 25% -2.0 21% 22% -7.0
28.10.23 Cadiz CF vs Sevilla FC 2-2 25% 27% -9.3 29% 31% -5.8 46% 48% -2.4
28.10.23 FC Barcelona vs Real Madrid 1-2 39% 40% -3.5 28% 29% -4.2 33% 37% -10.2
28.10.23 RCD Mallorca vs Getafe CF 0-0 41% 43% -5.8 32% 34% -8.1 27% 28% -1.5
Showing the 100 most recent of 1122 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

20 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 FC Barcelona 2623.87
2 Real Madrid 2568.53
3 Atletico Madrid 2387.83
4 Betis Sevilla 2308.89
5 Athletic Bilbao 2298.26
6 Villarreal CF 2263.94
7 Sevilla FC 2199.26
8 CD Alaves 2196.48
9 Real Sociedad 2193.90
10 Celta de Vigo 2183.95
11 Getafe CF 2159.28
12 CA Osasuna 2152.84
13 Rayo Vallecano 2139.81
14 FC Valencia 2133.77
15 Espanyol Barcelona 2132.75
16 UD Levante Valencia 2131.67
17 Deportivo La Coruna 2130.67
18 Elche CF 2113.18
19 Malaga CF 2112.98
20 Racing Santander 2105.14

Away Ratings

20 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Real Madrid 2504.60
2 FC Barcelona 2500.47
3 Atletico Madrid 2335.12
4 Athletic Bilbao 2266.77
5 Real Sociedad 2230.60
6 Villarreal CF 2220.65
7 Betis Sevilla 2214.80
8 CD Alaves 2157.82
9 Sevilla FC 2137.55
10 Celta de Vigo 2103.96
11 Rayo Vallecano 2057.10
12 Racing Santander 2051.23
13 CA Osasuna 2051.05
14 UD Levante Valencia 2050.00
15 FC Valencia 2046.75
16 Getafe CF 2036.21
17 Deportivo La Coruna 2013.68
18 Espanyol Barcelona 2013.22
19 Malaga CF 2001.40
20 Elche CF 2000.32