ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 272
Avg Goals 3.28
Avg Home 1.77
Avg Away 1.51
Home Win % 44.9%
Draw % 19.1%
Away Win % 36.0%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 272
Avg Brier Score 0.5241
Pick Accuracy 61.8%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.5280
Market Brier 0.5245
Blended Model Beats Market? Yes
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 6
Value Bet Hit Rate 0.0%
ROI (flat stake) -100.0%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • 66.7% of value bets are on 'home' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 6 of 272 matches had at least one · staked 6.00, profit -6.00 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 4 0.0% 4.00 -4.00 -100.0%
draw 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
away 2 0.0% 2.00 -2.00 -100.0%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 7.8% 9.5% 21
10–20% 15.9% 11.3% 142
20–30% 23.4% 18.8% 303
30–40% 34.7% 38.5% 96
40–50% 44.5% 48.3% 87
50–60% 55.2% 67.1% 79
60–70% 64.5% 62.0% 50
70–80% 74.0% 93.5% 31
80–90% 84.4% 71.4% 7
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
12.08.23 Mallbackens IF (W) vs Gamla Upsala (W) 3-1 31% 36% -13.8 24% 29% -14.7 44% 48% -7.0
12.08.23 Umeå IK (W) vs Bollstanäs SK (W) 2-3 56% 65% -13.6 22% 24% -9.8 22% 23% -2.1
13.08.23 Trelleborgs FF (W) vs Alingsaas FC United (W) 3-1 33% 32% 0.9 26% 30% -14.9 42% 50% -16.7
14.08.23 BK Häcken II (W) vs Jitex BK (W) 2-5 25% 29% -16.3 21% 25% -14.3 54% 58% -6.7
19.08.23 Alingsaas FC United (W) vs IFO Bromolla IF (W) 2-1 74% 79% -7.3 17% 20% -16.8 10% 11% -14.4
19.08.23 Gamla Upsala (W) vs Jitex BK (W) 3-0 50% 58% -14.5 23% 26% -10.8 27% 29% -4.1
19.08.23 Trelleborgs FF (W) vs Mallbackens IF (W) 4-1 64% 69% -7.7 20% 23% -13.4 16% 18% -12.4
20.08.23 Bollstanäs SK (W) vs BK Häcken II (W) 0-0 60% 66% -9.1 21% 24% -13.2 19% 22% -14.0
20.08.23 Sundsvalls DFF (W) vs Umeå IK (W) 0-1 17% 20% -16.1 20% 25% -18.4 63% 67% -5.8
26.08.23 IFO Bromolla IF (W) vs Gamla Upsala (W) 6-2 20% 23% -12.4 22% 26% -15.6 58% 63% -8.1
26.08.23 IK Rosso Uddevalla (W) vs Umeå IK (W) 0-3 24% 28% -12.7 23% 27% -15.1 53% 57% -7.6
26.08.23 Jitex BK (W) vs Bollstanäs SK (W) 5-1 51% 57% -11.3 24% 27% -12.5 26% 28% -7.6
27.08.23 Eskilstuna United DFF (W) vs Trelleborgs FF (W) 2-3 23% 24% -4.1 24% 28% -14.4 53% 60% -12.3
02.09.23 Alingsaas FC United (W) vs Mallbackens IF (W) 1-0 64% 68% -6.0 21% 25% -17.7 15% 18% -17.1
02.09.23 Gamla Upsala (W) vs Eskilstuna United DFF (W) 2-2 53% 59% -9.9 23% 27% -13.5 24% 26% -10.2
02.09.23 Trelleborgs FF (W) vs IFO Bromolla IF (W) 3-0 73% 78% -7.2 17% 20% -16.5 11% 13% -16.4
02.09.23 Umeå IK (W) vs Jitex BK (W) 1-2 49% 56% -12.6 23% 27% -11.9 27% 29% -6.8
08.09.23 Gamla Upsala (W) vs Bollstanäs SK (W) 2-2 57% 65% -12.0 22% 26% -12.6 21% 22% -6.3
09.09.23 BK Häcken II (W) vs Trelleborgs FF (W) 1-2 11% 12% -10.1 16% 18% -14.6 74% 80% -8.0
09.09.23 Eskilstuna United DFF (W) vs Umeå IK (W) 3-2 35% 40% -11.7 25% 29% -13.5 40% 43% -8.1
09.09.23 IFO Bromolla IF (W) vs Jitex BK (W) 3-4 31% 37% -17.2 24% 28% -15.0 46% 48% -3.9
09.09.23 IK Rosso Uddevalla (W) vs Alingsaas FC United (W) 1-2 15% 16% -9.1 20% 24% -17.1 65% 71% -8.0
16.09.23 Alingsaas FC United (W) vs Gamla Upsala (W) 3-3 61% 64% -3.8 22% 27% -19.9 17% 22% -21.4
16.09.23 Jitex BK (W) vs Eskilstuna United DFF (W) 3-3 50% 58% -12.9 24% 27% -12.6 26% 28% -6.2
16.09.23 Lidköpings FK (W) vs BK Häcken II (W) 2-2 68% 76% -10.1 17% 19% -9.7 15% 17% -12.1
16.09.23 Trelleborgs FF (W) vs AIK Solna (W) 1-4 24% 29% -19.6 23% 28% -18.5 54% 56% -3.3
17.09.23 Umeå IK (W) vs IFO Bromolla IF (W) 2-0 58% 64% -8.7 22% 25% -13.3 20% 23% -12.7
30.09.23 AIK Solna (W) vs Alingsaas FC United (W) 1-0 73% 81% -10.5 17% 18% -8.5 11% 11% 0.7
30.09.23 BK Häcken II (W) vs Sundsvalls DFF (W) 1-3 40% 43% -7.4 24% 27% -11.9 36% 42% -13.8
30.09.23 Gamla Upsala (W) vs Umeå IK (W) 1-1 37% 41% -8.3 24% 28% -12.5 38% 43% -12.0
30.09.23 Mallbackens IF (W) vs Jitex BK (W) 2-3 36% 41% -13.0 24% 28% -12.9 40% 43% -7.3
07.10.23 Alingsaas FC United (W) vs Eskilstuna United DFF (W) 2-0 56% 60% -6.3 23% 28% -16.4 21% 25% -16.0
07.10.23 Jitex BK (W) vs AIK Solna (W) 1-6 12% 17% -25.7 16% 21% -23.8 72% 74% -2.4
07.10.23 Umeå IK (W) vs Mallbackens IF (W) 1-2 63% 73% -13.3 20% 22% -8.4 17% 17% 0.9
08.10.23 Lidköpings FK (W) vs Trelleborgs FF (W) 1-1 27% 31% -12.5 23% 27% -13.8 50% 55% -9.1
12.10.23 Jitex BK (W) vs Lidköpings FK (W) 2-5 46% 53% -13.2 22% 25% -10.0 32% 35% -8.6
14.10.23 Gamla Upsala (W) vs AIK Solna (W) 0-7 8% 11% -24.4 13% 17% -23.9 79% 83% -4.2
14.10.23 Trelleborgs FF (W) vs Umeå IK (W) 3-0 63% 71% -11.5 20% 22% -9.9 17% 18% -5.3
15.10.23 BK Häcken II (W) vs Mallbackens IF (W) 0-3 23% 24% -6.6 21% 24% -11.1 56% 64% -12.0
20.10.23 IK Rosso Uddevalla (W) vs Jitex BK (W) 1-2 22% 24% -9.1 21% 24% -11.9 57% 64% -10.8
21.10.23 Bollstanäs SK (W) vs Trelleborgs FF (W) 0-0 21% 23% -10.5 21% 25% -14.2 58% 64% -9.1
21.10.23 Lidköpings FK (W) vs Gamla Upsala (W) 3-1 49% 54% -9.2 24% 27% -12.6 27% 31% -11.3
21.10.23 Sundsvalls DFF (W) vs Alingsaas FC United (W) 0-0 16% 18% -13.9 19% 23% -16.6 65% 70% -6.9
02.11.23 Jitex BK (W) vs Alingsaas FC United (W) 3-2 30% 32% -8.2 22% 25% -10.9 48% 56% -13.4
04.11.23 Lidköpings FK (W) vs Umeå IK (W) 3-3 42% 49% -13.9 24% 28% -12.6 34% 36% -5.6
12.11.23 Alingsaas FC United (W) vs Lidköpings FK (W) 0-0 48% 52% -6.7 23% 26% -11.8 29% 34% -15.8
12.11.23 Sundsvalls DFF (W) vs Jitex BK (W) 3-0 40% 48% -16.2 24% 27% -12.1 36% 37% -1.9
05.05.24 IFK Kalmar (W) vs Jitex BK (W) 3-3 32% 42% -23.1 23% 28% -16.9 44% 43% 4.5
11.05.24 Jitex BK (W) vs Orebro SK (W) 4-2 47% 60% -21.5 24% 28% -13.3 29% 24% 17.4
18.05.24 Alingsaas FC United (W) vs Umeå IK (W) 3-0 43% 51% -14.5 25% 29% -13.4 32% 33% -3.8
18.05.24 Jitex BK (W) vs Mallbackens IF (W) 0-2 41% 49% -15.5 23% 27% -12.2 35% 38% -6.3
24.05.24 Gamla Upsala (W) vs IFK Uppsala (W) 1-6 44% 51% -13.4 25% 29% -13.7 32% 34% -6.8
25.05.24 Bollstanäs SK (W) vs Umeå IK (W) 4-5 21% 24% -11.3 22% 26% -14.9 57% 62% -8.7
25.05.24 Eskilstuna United DFF (W) vs Alingsaas FC United (W) 1-1 24% 24% 2.0 23% 26% -11.2 53% 62% -15.3
25.05.24 Sundsvalls DFF (W) vs Jitex BK (W) 1-1 23% 27% -13.0 22% 26% -14.6 55% 60% -8.9
08.06.24 Alingsaas FC United (W) vs Sundsvalls DFF (W) 10-0 84% 93% -9.7 10% 10% 0.0 6% 6% 0.7
08.06.24 Bollstanäs SK (W) vs Gamla Upsala (W) 1-2 41% 48% -14.3 23% 26% -10.7 36% 39% -7.5
08.06.24 Malmo FF (W) vs Orebro SK (W) 3-1 60% 70% -14.9 20% 21% -6.0 21% 21% -0.8
08.06.24 Umeå IK (W) vs Mallbackens IF (W) 5-0 59% 65% -10.4 21% 23% -10.4 21% 23% -10.4
13.06.24 Orebro SK (W) vs IFK Uppsala (W) 1-0 23% 23% -0.9 22% 25% -11.6 55% 65% -14.7
15.06.24 Gamla Upsala (W) vs Malmo FF (W) 1-2 22% 25% -13.7 21% 25% -15.0 57% 62% -8.5
15.06.24 Jitex BK (W) vs Sunnanå SK (W) 1-2 63% 66% -4.9 19% 23% -16.2 18% 23% -22.1
15.06.24 Lidköpings FK (W) vs Umeå IK (W) 1-2 21% 24% -15.7 20% 23% -14.1 60% 64% -6.4
20.06.24 Eskilstuna United DFF (W) vs Orebro SK (W) 2-0 64% 72% -11.5 19% 21% -8.6 17% 18% -6.1
20.06.24 IFK Kalmar (W) vs Gamla Upsala (W) 0-4 17% 19% -10.3 19% 22% -13.4 64% 70% -8.9
20.06.24 IFK Uppsala (W) vs Alingsaas FC United (W) 0-1 19% 17% 12.1 20% 22% -7.6 61% 74% -16.7
20.06.24 Umeå IK (W) vs Sundsvalls DFF (W) 0-1 89% 96% -7.5 8% 9% -10.2 3% 3% -5.8
29.06.24 Gamla Upsala (W) vs Sunnanå SK (W) 1-2 62% 66% -5.5 21% 25% -17.8 17% 22% -20.4
29.06.24 Malmo FF (W) vs Alingsaas FC United (W) 2-2 32% 35% -7.2 23% 27% -12.1 44% 51% -13.8
04.07.24 Alingsaas FC United (W) vs Jitex BK (W) 3-1 84% 93% -8.9 10% 10% -0.8 6% 6% -0.2
16.08.24 IFK Uppsala (W) vs Gamla Upsala (W) 1-0 42% 43% -3.5 24% 28% -13.2 34% 41% -16.9
16.08.24 Lidköpings FK (W) vs Jitex BK (W) 1-0 39% 47% -15.5 24% 27% -12.5 37% 39% -5.6
18.08.24 Alingsaas FC United (W) vs Eskilstuna United DFF (W) 2-1 77% 83% -8.2 15% 17% -12.5 9% 10% -11.1
18.08.24 Sundsvalls DFF (W) vs Orebro SK (W) 1-2 37% 44% -16.2 25% 29% -15.0 38% 39% -3.7
23.08.24 Gamla Upsala (W) vs Eskilstuna United DFF (W) 2-0 47% 53% -11.6 24% 28% -13.1 29% 32% -9.1
24.08.24 Jitex BK (W) vs Sundsvalls DFF (W) 2-0 52% 58% -10.6 23% 26% -12.2 25% 27% -9.0
25.08.24 Umeå IK (W) vs IFK Uppsala (W) 1-2 65% 71% -8.6 20% 23% -14.0 15% 17% -12.8
31.08.24 Lidköpings FK (W) vs Orebro SK (W) 0-4 36% 42% -14.7 25% 29% -14.0 39% 42% -5.4
07.09.24 Alingsaas FC United (W) vs IFK Uppsala (W) 1-2 67% 74% -8.3 19% 22% -14.0 14% 16% -13.2
07.09.24 Bollstanäs SK (W) vs Orebro SK (W) 1-0 43% 49% -11.5 24% 28% -13.0 33% 36% -10.2
07.09.24 Gamla Upsala (W) vs IFK Kalmar (W) 2-1 69% 74% -7.4 18% 21% -15.2 14% 17% -17.7
13.09.24 Orebro SK (W) vs Eskilstuna United DFF (W) 1-1 42% 47% -9.5 25% 29% -14.1 33% 36% -10.2
14.09.24 Bollstanäs SK (W) vs Jitex BK (W) 5-4 44% 49% -10.1 24% 27% -12.0 32% 36% -11.0
15.09.24 Umeå IK (W) vs Alingsaas FC United (W) 1-3 31% 36% -12.4 25% 29% -14.2 44% 48% -7.2
21.09.24 Gamla Upsala (W) vs Sundsvalls DFF (W) 3-0 67% 76% -10.9 19% 21% -10.7 14% 14% -4.0
21.09.24 Jitex BK (W) vs Malmo FF (W) 0-5 11% 12% -11.3 15% 17% -14.5 74% 81% -8.5
05.10.24 Gamla Upsala (W) vs Bollstanäs SK (W) 2-3 41% 44% -7.2 24% 27% -12.1 35% 41% -14.2
12.10.24 Jitex BK (W) vs Gamla Upsala (W) 4-2 37% 42% -12.2 23% 26% -11.5 40% 44% -9.7
12.10.24 Umeå IK (W) vs Bollstanäs SK (W) 0-0 62% 67% -7.0 21% 25% -15.8 17% 20% -15.2
13.10.24 Alingsaas FC United (W) vs Sunnanå SK (W) 2-0 81% 85% -4.3 12% 16% -24.8 7% 10% -27.9
10.11.24 Alingsaas FC United (W) vs Malmo FF (W) 0-4 33% 32% 2.5 25% 29% -13.3 42% 51% -17.8
10.11.24 Jitex BK (W) vs IFK Kalmar (W) 2-1 64% 71% -10.7 19% 21% -10.2 18% 20% -12.5
13.04.25 Orebro SK (W) vs Team TG FF (W) 2-2 55% 63% -13.3 22% 24% -9.4 24% 25% -5.6
18.04.25 IF Elfsborg (W) vs IFK Uppsala (W) 2-2 29% 23% 25.1 22% 25% -10.1 49% 64% -23.6
18.04.25 Jitex BK (W) vs Gamla Upsala (W) 4-3 49% 57% -13.6 23% 26% -10.7 28% 29% -5.8
19.04.25 KIF Örebro DFF (W) vs Trelleborgs FF (W) 1-2 42% 41% 1.7 24% 28% -13.9 35% 43% -20.5
20.04.25 BK Häcken II (W) vs Umeå IK (W) 1-1 17% 20% -15.2 20% 24% -17.0 63% 68% -7.0
25.04.25 BK Häcken II (W) vs Jitex BK (W) 0-1 30% 34% -11.1 23% 26% -12.3 47% 52% -9.7
26.04.25 Gamla Upsala (W) vs Trelleborgs FF (W) 1-2 14% 12% 17.4 17% 18% -4.5 69% 81% -14.7
01.05.25 Jitex BK (W) vs Mallbackens IF (W) 4-3 43% 50% -14.9 24% 27% -11.9 34% 35% -4.2
Showing the 100 most recent of 272 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

14 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 IFK Göteborg (W) 1542.93
2 IF Elfsborg (W) 1448.35
3 KIF Örebro DFF (W) 1428.84
4 Linköpings FC (W) 1423.61
5 Umeå IK (W) 1415.51
6 Trelleborgs FF (W) 1343.84
7 Husqvarna FF (W) 1306.45
8 Orebro SK (W) 1282.77
9 Jitex BK (W) 1246.23
10 Enskede IK (W) 1177.65
11 Alingsaas FC United (W) 1137.26
12 Gamla Upsala (W) 1128.00
13 Sandvikens IF (W) 1068.12
14 BK Häcken II (W) 1032.35

Away Ratings

14 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Linköpings FC (W) 1493.08
2 IF Elfsborg (W) 1485.70
3 KIF Örebro DFF (W) 1443.86
4 IFK Göteborg (W) 1436.08
5 Umeå IK (W) 1326.18
6 Enskede IK (W) 1262.72
7 Trelleborgs FF (W) 1242.98
8 Jitex BK (W) 1238.07
9 Orebro SK (W) 1220.81
10 Gamla Upsala (W) 1212.57
11 Alingsaas FC United (W) 1152.61
12 Husqvarna FF (W) 1147.98
13 BK Häcken II (W) 1111.04
14 Sandvikens IF (W) 1077.11