ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 360
Avg Goals 3.65
Avg Home 1.97
Avg Away 1.68
Home Win % 44.7%
Draw % 16.7%
Away Win % 38.6%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
Calculating…
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 360
Avg Brier Score 0.5157
Pick Accuracy 62.8%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.5202
Market Brier 0.5204
Blended Model Beats Market? Yes
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 2
Value Bet Hit Rate 0.0%
ROI (flat stake) -100.0%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • 100.0% of value bets are on 'home' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 2 of 360 matches had at least one · staked 2.00, profit -2.00 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 2 0.0% 2.00 -2.00 -100.0%
draw 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
away 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 6.4% 10.0% 80
10–20% 16.1% 13.6% 257
20–30% 22.9% 21.2% 283
30–40% 34.9% 33.0% 109
40–50% 44.6% 45.4% 108
50–60% 55.0% 64.6% 82
60–70% 64.7% 68.4% 79
70–80% 75.2% 73.2% 41
80–90% 84.2% 90.0% 30
90–100% 91.8% 72.7% 11
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
04.08.23 IFK Östersund vs Frösö IF 0-2 82% 85% -3.5 12% 17% -29.6 6% 9% -28.5
05.08.23 Gottne IF vs Bergnäsets AIK 5-0 66% 67% -1.1 18% 24% -25.7 16% 21% -23.5
05.08.23 Notvikens IK vs Umea FF 0-4 5% 7% -26.8 11% 15% -28.3 84% 87% -3.5
05.08.23 Sandviks IK vs Skelleftea FF 0-3 10% 13% -21.6 15% 21% -25.9 74% 78% -4.0
05.08.23 Storfors AIK vs Friska Viljor FC 0-1 10% 13% -20.2 15% 20% -24.5 75% 78% -3.8
06.08.23 Kiruna FF vs IFK Lulea 2-1 23% 28% -18.5 22% 29% -23.8 56% 56% -1.0
11.08.23 Storfors AIK vs IFK Lulea 0-4 14% 17% -20.1 17% 22% -23.5 69% 72% -3.4
12.08.23 Algarna-Harnosand IF vs Umea FF 1-2 10% 14% -23.9 14% 19% -25.6 75% 79% -4.3
12.08.23 Gottne IF vs Skelleftea FF 1-0 28% 30% -7.6 23% 29% -20.8 49% 53% -7.7
12.08.23 Ytterhogdals IK vs Friska Viljor FC 0-3 8% 10% -23.9 13% 17% -26.3 79% 83% -3.9
13.08.23 IFK Östersund vs Sandviks IK 1-1 66% 67% -1.2 18% 25% -26.4 15% 20% -23.6
17.08.23 IFK Lulea vs Notvikens IK 2-0 91% 95% -4.3 7% 10% -31.5 2% 3% -31.0
17.08.23 Skelleftea FF vs Storfors AIK 4-0 90% 94% -4.3 7% 10% -30.1 3% 4% -29.9
18.08.23 Friska Viljor FC vs Algarna-Harnosand IF 5-1 80% 83% -3.2 11% 15% -26.0 9% 12% -27.8
19.08.23 Frösö IF vs Gottne IF 1-0 14% 17% -20.6 17% 23% -24.3 69% 71% -2.7
20.08.23 Umea FF vs IFK Östersund 0-2 76% 79% -4.7 15% 20% -25.4 9% 12% -19.5
25.08.23 Umea FF vs Friska Viljor FC 1-0 42% 41% 2.3 23% 29% -21.2 35% 42% -15.9
26.08.23 Gottne IF vs Sandviks IK 2-2 70% 72% -2.2 17% 23% -26.7 13% 17% -23.9
26.08.23 IFK Östersund vs Kiruna FF 0-1 58% 60% -4.4 21% 26% -22.0 22% 26% -14.7
26.08.23 Notvikens IK vs Skelleftea FF 0-4 3% 5% -31.2 7% 10% -30.6 90% 93% -4.1
26.08.23 Ytterhogdals IK vs IFK Lulea 1-10 7% 10% -28.3 12% 17% -29.0 81% 84% -3.2
27.08.23 Storfors AIK vs Frösö IF 1-1 31% 31% -0.3 22% 27% -19.2 47% 55% -13.1
02.09.23 Bergnäsets AIK vs Umea FF 0-1 13% 16% -16.4 17% 22% -23.0 70% 73% -4.8
02.09.23 Friska Viljor FC vs IFK Östersund 2-1 68% 69% -2.1 18% 24% -26.4 14% 19% -24.0
02.09.23 IFK Lulea vs Algarna-Harnosand IF 6-0 85% 89% -4.5 10% 13% -27.9 5% 7% -26.2
02.09.23 Kiruna FF vs Gottne IF 2-4 27% 31% -11.7 22% 29% -21.6 50% 53% -5.7
02.09.23 Sandviks IK vs Storfors AIK 6-3 57% 57% 0.3 21% 28% -24.1 22% 27% -20.0
02.09.23 Skelleftea FF vs Ytterhogdals IK 1-0 93% 97% -4.4 5% 7% -31.8 2% 3% -32.4
09.09.23 Algarna-Harnosand IF vs Skelleftea FF 2-2 7% 9% -26.3 11% 14% -26.4 83% 86% -4.0
09.09.23 Friska Viljor FC vs Bergnäsets AIK 4-1 81% 83% -3.0 12% 17% -30.2 7% 10% -29.6
09.09.23 IFK Östersund vs Gottne IF 0-1 41% 45% -10.7 23% 29% -20.8 36% 38% -4.3
09.09.23 Storfors AIK vs Kiruna FF 4-5 28% 32% -12.9 21% 26% -19.9 51% 53% -5.0
09.09.23 Umea FF vs IFK Lulea 1-1 40% 43% -6.2 24% 30% -21.5 36% 40% -9.3
16.09.23 Bergnäsets AIK vs IFK Östersund 2-1 41% 48% -13.2 23% 29% -19.9 36% 36% 0.2
16.09.23 Gottne IF vs Storfors AIK 1-0 87% 91% -4.2 9% 12% -27.5 4% 6% -26.1
16.09.23 IFK Lulea vs Friska Viljor FC 0-2 49% 53% -6.5 23% 29% -21.5 28% 30% -8.5
16.09.23 Skelleftea FF vs Umea FF 1-1 51% 51% -0.3 23% 30% -23.9 26% 31% -17.4
22.09.23 Storfors AIK vs Notvikens IK 6-1 53% 56% -6.0 21% 27% -21.0 26% 29% -12.0
23.09.23 Frösö IF vs Friska Viljor FC 1-2 9% 12% -23.9 15% 20% -26.9 76% 79% -3.3
23.09.23 Gottne IF vs Ytterhogdals IK 3-1 82% 85% -4.1 11% 15% -28.0 7% 10% -27.3
23.09.23 IFK Lulea vs IFK Östersund 4-1 75% 78% -4.4 15% 20% -24.3 10% 12% -18.4
23.09.23 Sandviks IK vs Umea FF 1-2 13% 16% -19.3 17% 22% -23.9 70% 72% -3.1
23.09.23 Skelleftea FF vs Bergnäsets AIK 3-1 81% 83% -3.3 12% 17% -28.8 8% 11% -28.5
30.09.23 Bergnäsets AIK vs IFK Lulea 2-1 14% 17% -21.4 17% 23% -25.0 69% 71% -2.7
30.09.23 IFK Östersund vs Storfors AIK 5-1 70% 71% -1.9 17% 22% -25.5 14% 18% -23.7
30.09.23 Umea FF vs Frösö IF 1-0 82% 85% -2.8 11% 15% -29.3 7% 10% -29.4
01.10.23 Friska Viljor FC vs Skelleftea FF 1-0 43% 45% -6.3 24% 30% -21.6 34% 37% -9.1
07.10.23 Skelleftea FF vs Frösö IF 5-0 85% 88% -3.5 10% 14% -31.1 5% 7% -31.1
08.10.23 Friska Viljor FC vs Gottne IF 5-2 53% 53% -1.0 22% 29% -23.1 25% 31% -17.6
08.10.23 Umea FF vs Storfors AIK 7-1 90% 93% -4.2 7% 11% -31.8 3% 5% -31.8
14.10.23 Frösö IF vs IFK Lulea 0-1 11% 15% -25.6 16% 22% -27.1 73% 74% -1.9
14.10.23 Gottne IF vs Umea FF 1-2 23% 24% -4.7 22% 27% -20.3 55% 61% -8.9
14.10.23 Kiruna FF vs Friska Viljor FC 0-2 17% 22% -21.3 18% 24% -23.8 65% 66% -2.2
14.10.23 Skelleftea FF vs IFK Östersund 1-4 74% 75% -1.7 16% 22% -28.5 10% 14% -26.2
14.10.23 Storfors AIK vs Algarna-Harnosand IF 3-3 42% 48% -11.8 22% 27% -19.5 36% 38% -5.8
22.10.23 Algarna-Harnosand IF vs Gottne IF 1-3 21% 26% -18.8 19% 24% -21.3 60% 62% -3.0
22.10.23 Friska Viljor FC vs Sandviks IK 6-1 89% 93% -4.3 8% 11% -27.5 4% 5% -25.2
22.10.23 IFK Lulea vs Skelleftea FF 2-2 44% 48% -7.6 22% 28% -19.9 34% 37% -8.8
22.10.23 IFK Östersund vs Notvikens IK 4-0 87% 90% -3.7 9% 12% -30.8 5% 7% -31.0
22.10.23 Umea FF vs Kiruna FF 5-0 94% 99% -4.8 4% 5% -26.6 2% 2% -26.6
22.10.23 Ytterhogdals IK vs Storfors AIK 11-3 79% 85% -6.5 12% 15% -19.4 9% 10% -13.8
28.03.24 Skelleftea FF vs IFK Östersund 6-1 64% 65% -0.5 18% 24% -25.2 18% 23% -23.9
04.05.24 Algarna-Harnosand IF vs Umea FC Akademi 3-3 41% 37% 11.6 20% 25% -19.9 39% 51% -23.5
04.05.24 Bergnäsets AIK vs Gottne IF 2-1 42% 47% -9.0 22% 27% -19.0 36% 38% -7.0
04.05.24 Frösö IF vs IFK Lulea 1-2 11% 11% -8.0 15% 19% -20.2 74% 80% -7.1
04.05.24 IFK Östersund vs Lucksta IF 2-1 53% 61% -13.2 21% 25% -17.8 26% 26% 2.3
04.05.24 Kiruna FF vs Umea FF 0-2 10% 14% -32.2 14% 20% -31.2 77% 76% 0.3
04.05.24 Skelleftea FF vs Bodens BK FF 2-2 48% 45% 5.1 21% 28% -23.1 31% 40% -22.9
04.05.24 Ytterhogdals IK vs Täftea IK 3-0 60% 65% -6.9 19% 24% -20.1 20% 23% -10.1
11.05.24 Bodens BK FF vs Ytterhogdals IK 1-3 60% 61% -1.8 20% 26% -23.0 21% 26% -19.2
11.05.24 IFK Lulea vs Gottne IF 1-3 48% 48% 1.4 22% 29% -22.4 30% 36% -18.8
11.05.24 Skelleftea FF vs Frösö IF 0-0 92% 96% -4.1 5% 8% -31.5 2% 3% -31.9
11.05.24 Täftea IK vs Kiruna FF 6-0 53% 58% -8.8 21% 26% -18.8 26% 28% -5.9
11.05.24 Umea FF vs Lucksta IF 7-1 83% 89% -6.9 10% 12% -16.8 7% 7% -8.6
18.05.24 IFK Östersund vs Bodens BK FF 1-2 39% 40% -2.5 23% 29% -20.1 38% 43% -12.2
18.05.24 Kiruna FF vs Skelleftea FF 0-3 15% 21% -30.0 17% 24% -29.0 68% 67% 2.5
18.05.24 Lucksta IF vs IFK Lulea 4-0 33% 36% -8.8 21% 26% -19.0 46% 50% -8.9
18.05.24 Ytterhogdals IK vs Umea FF 0-1 22% 29% -26.4 19% 26% -25.4 59% 57% 3.6
19.05.24 Bergnäsets AIK vs Umea FC Akademi 2-0 65% 62% 5.1 18% 25% -29.0 17% 25% -30.5
24.05.24 Täftea IK vs Umea FC Akademi 1-2 74% 75% -2.2 15% 20% -26.6 12% 16% -26.2
25.05.24 Bodens BK FF vs Algarna-Harnosand IF 3-1 90% 93% -4.1 6% 9% -28.6 4% 6% -29.8
25.05.24 Gottne IF vs Frösö IF 5-2 70% 73% -3.4 16% 22% -24.6 13% 17% -21.2
25.05.24 IFK Lulea vs Kiruna FF 3-1 66% 66% -0.9 18% 24% -25.2 17% 22% -23.7
25.05.24 Ytterhogdals IK vs IFK Östersund 1-6 52% 61% -13.4 21% 26% -18.6 27% 26% 1.4
26.05.24 Lucksta IF vs Bergnäsets AIK 2-4 35% 35% -1.2 23% 29% -20.2 43% 49% -12.8
26.05.24 Umea FF vs Skelleftea FF 2-2 50% 56% -10.1 22% 27% -19.4 28% 29% -3.9
01.06.24 Algarna-Harnosand IF vs Umea FF 2-2 4% 6% -32.3 6% 8% -30.3 90% 94% -4.4
01.06.24 Kiruna FF vs Gottne IF 0-0 29% 33% -14.3 21% 27% -20.6 50% 52% -3.6
01.06.24 Skelleftea FF vs IFK Lulea 1-0 68% 68% -0.4 18% 24% -27.6 14% 19% -26.0
02.06.24 Frösö IF vs Lucksta IF 6-2 50% 59% -15.7 21% 26% -18.1 29% 28% 5.8
02.06.24 IFK Östersund vs Täftea IK 3-1 58% 61% -6.2 19% 24% -19.3 23% 27% -12.9
02.06.24 Umea FC Akademi vs Bodens BK FF 2-3 16% 22% -25.3 18% 24% -26.1 66% 66% -0.1
06.06.24 IFK Östersund vs Bergnäsets AIK 1-1 48% 49% -2.6 22% 28% -20.9 30% 36% -14.6
08.06.24 IFK Lulea vs Algarna-Harnosand IF 2-1 74% 74% 1.0 14% 21% -30.9 11% 17% -32.0
08.06.24 Lucksta IF vs Kiruna FF 1-0 44% 49% -10.8 22% 27% -19.4 35% 38% -7.2
09.06.24 Gottne IF vs Skelleftea FF 0-2 24% 29% -18.8 21% 27% -22.6 55% 56% -0.7
09.06.24 Täftea IK vs Bodens BK FF 0-2 23% 27% -15.0 20% 26% -21.1 57% 60% -4.6
09.06.24 Umea FF vs Umea FC Akademi 8-0 84% 87% -2.8 9% 13% -31.6 6% 10% -32.9
12.06.24 Frösö IF vs IFK Östersund 1-2 24% 29% -15.9 20% 25% -20.6 56% 58% -4.0
15.06.24 Algarna-Harnosand IF vs Gottne IF 3-2 16% 21% -22.2 18% 23% -23.9 66% 67% -1.6
Showing the 100 most recent of 360 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

14 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Kubikenborgs IF 1581.28
2 Skelleftea FF 1580.98
3 IFK Östersund 1555.67
4 IFK Lulea 1475.52
5 Friska Viljor FC 1442.89
6 Täftea IK 1437.37
7 Gottne IF 1405.61
8 Umea FF 1391.17
9 Lucksta IF 1364.28
10 Bodens BK FF 1356.93
11 Fransta IK 1324.73
12 Umea FC Akademi 1274.29
13 Storfors AIK 1263.94
14 IFK Umea 1086.39

Away Ratings

14 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Skelleftea FF 1462.65
2 Kubikenborgs IF 1456.65
3 IFK Lulea 1438.66
4 IFK Östersund 1429.98
5 Umea FF 1403.35
6 Gottne IF 1401.95
7 Täftea IK 1397.30
8 Friska Viljor FC 1372.82
9 Bodens BK FF 1330.96
10 Lucksta IF 1316.35
11 Fransta IK 1267.46
12 Umea FC Akademi 1207.65
13 Storfors AIK 1199.15
14 IFK Umea 1029.58