ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 871
Avg Goals 2.83
Avg Home 1.53
Avg Away 1.30
Home Win % 42.5%
Draw % 22.6%
Away Win % 34.9%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
Calculating…
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 700
Avg Brier Score 0.5965
Pick Accuracy 50.7%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.5968
Market Brier 0.5975
Blended Model Beats Market? Yes
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 2
Value Bet Hit Rate 0.0%
ROI (flat stake) -100.0%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • 100.0% of value bets are on 'away' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 2 of 700 matches had at least one · staked 2.00, profit -2.00 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
draw 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
away 2 0.0% 2.00 -2.00 -100.0%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 8.2% 0.0% 13
10–20% 16.3% 14.4% 216
20–30% 25.0% 24.5% 920
30–40% 35.0% 35.1% 370
40–50% 44.6% 45.9% 292
50–60% 54.7% 56.9% 160
60–70% 64.3% 64.9% 97
70–80% 73.9% 79.3% 29
80–90% 82.9% 100.0% 3
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
17.07.23 Djurgardens IF vs Malmö FF 2-0 36% 40% -9.5 27% 30% -11.8 37% 37% 0.1
17.07.23 Varbergs BoIS FC vs AIK Solna 1-2 25% 26% -5.4 27% 31% -13.4 48% 51% -4.0
21.07.23 IF Brommapojkarna vs Hammarby IF 1-0 32% 34% -6.1 26% 29% -10.3 43% 44% -4.3
22.07.23 Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg 0-4 41% 45% -9.8 26% 29% -11.5 33% 33% -1.1
22.07.23 IFK Värnamo vs BK Häcken 1-0 21% 23% -8.1 22% 24% -9.7 57% 60% -5.2
23.07.23 AIK Solna vs Malmö FF 0-0 30% 33% -9.6 27% 31% -13.0 43% 43% -0.9
23.07.23 IFK Göteborg vs Halmstads BK 0-0 46% 49% -6.5 27% 31% -12.6 28% 28% -1.0
23.07.23 IFK Norrköping FK vs Degerfors IF 1-0 57% 62% -8.5 22% 24% -8.4 20% 20% 2.3
23.07.23 Kalmar FF vs Varbergs BoIS FC 1-0 51% 53% -3.8 26% 29% -13.0 23% 24% -4.7
24.07.23 IK Sirius FK vs Mjällby AIF 2-3 43% 45% -5.6 27% 31% -13.2 30% 31% -4.1
29.07.23 BK Häcken vs IF Elfsborg 3-1 37% 40% -8.3 24% 27% -8.7 39% 41% -4.5
29.07.23 Degerfors IF vs IF Brommapojkarna 2-0 33% 35% -6.9 25% 28% -9.8 42% 44% -4.9
29.07.23 Halmstads BK vs Varbergs BoIS FC 0-5 47% 49% -3.8 26% 30% -13.2 27% 29% -6.2
30.07.23 Hammarby IF vs IFK Norrköping FK 2-1 46% 49% -6.6 26% 29% -11.1 28% 29% -0.8
30.07.23 IFK Göteborg vs Kalmar FF 2-0 42% 45% -8.0 28% 32% -13.9 30% 31% -1.1
30.07.23 Mjällby AIF vs Djurgardens IF 0-1 29% 31% -5.9 27% 31% -12.6 43% 44% -2.6
31.07.23 IK Sirius FK vs AIK Solna 0-1 31% 32% -3.1 26% 29% -10.9 43% 45% -6.4
31.07.23 Malmö FF vs IFK Värnamo 3-1 71% 77% -7.2 17% 19% -8.8 11% 11% 4.0
05.08.23 IF Brommapojkarna vs IFK Värnamo 0-2 44% 47% -5.7 25% 29% -10.8 31% 32% -5.0
06.08.23 IF Elfsborg vs IK Sirius FK 1-0 72% 76% -5.6 16% 18% -9.7 12% 13% -6.5
06.08.23 Kalmar FF vs AIK Solna 1-1 32% 33% -5.1 28% 32% -13.5 40% 42% -4.1
07.08.23 IFK Norrköping FK vs IFK Göteborg 3-0 46% 49% -5.9 26% 30% -12.7 28% 29% -3.3
07.08.23 Malmö FF vs Halmstads BK 3-0 73% 78% -6.3 16% 18% -9.5 10% 10% 0.9
07.08.23 Varbergs BoIS FC vs Mjällby AIF 0-3 33% 35% -4.6 28% 32% -13.1 38% 40% -3.8
12.08.23 AIK Solna vs IF Brommapojkarna 2-2 55% 58% -5.7 24% 27% -11.5 22% 22% -3.1
13.08.23 BK Häcken vs Varbergs BoIS FC 2-0 70% 76% -8.2 17% 18% -5.4 13% 13% 2.8
13.08.23 Halmstads BK vs IFK Norrköping FK 1-3 39% 41% -4.9 27% 31% -12.3 34% 35% -3.6
13.08.23 Hammarby IF vs IF Elfsborg 1-0 30% 33% -11.5 26% 29% -12.7 45% 45% -1.4
13.08.23 IFK Göteborg vs Djurgardens IF 2-1 27% 29% -6.7 27% 31% -13.1 46% 48% -3.8
13.08.23 IK Sirius FK vs Kalmar FF 3-0 44% 48% -7.2 26% 29% -11.7 30% 31% -3.1
14.08.23 IFK Värnamo vs Degerfors IF 0-1 56% 60% -7.9 23% 26% -9.5 21% 21% 1.2
14.08.23 Mjällby AIF vs Malmö FF 1-0 23% 25% -9.6 25% 29% -13.9 52% 53% -2.6
19.08.23 Degerfors IF vs IFK Göteborg 1-2 32% 34% -5.0 27% 30% -12.0 41% 43% -5.4
19.08.23 IF Brommapojkarna vs Halmstads BK 3-1 48% 51% -7.1 25% 29% -11.3 27% 28% -2.7
20.08.23 BK Häcken vs IK Sirius FK 3-2 61% 67% -9.1 20% 21% -4.9 19% 19% 1.7
20.08.23 IF Elfsborg vs Mjällby AIF 2-0 64% 68% -5.6 21% 23% -10.8 15% 15% -1.3
20.08.23 Kalmar FF vs Hammarby IF 0-0 34% 36% -6.1 27% 31% -12.3 39% 40% -2.4
20.08.23 Malmö FF vs Djurgardens IF 0-0 60% 66% -9.2 22% 24% -9.3 18% 17% 6.3
21.08.23 IFK Norrköping FK vs AIK Solna 3-1 36% 38% -7.5 27% 30% -12.1 38% 39% -3.6
27.08.23 Djurgardens IF vs Degerfors IF 4-1 73% 77% -5.2 17% 19% -12.2 10% 11% -4.3
27.08.23 IF Brommapojkarna vs Kalmar FF 2-3 46% 48% -4.2 26% 29% -11.3 28% 29% -3.8
27.08.23 IFK Göteborg vs BK Häcken 4-2 30% 31% -4.0 24% 27% -9.5 46% 50% -8.0
27.08.23 IFK Värnamo vs Halmstads BK 0-0 48% 52% -7.8 25% 29% -10.8 27% 27% 0.2
27.08.23 Mjällby AIF vs Hammarby IF 0-3 33% 34% -3.2 28% 32% -12.7 38% 40% -3.8
28.08.23 AIK Solna vs Varbergs BoIS FC 3-0 68% 72% -6.0 19% 22% -10.8 13% 13% 0.5
28.08.23 IF Elfsborg vs IFK Norrköping FK 3-2 61% 65% -4.8 21% 24% -11.8 18% 19% -7.8
28.08.23 IK Sirius FK vs Malmö FF 1-3 20% 22% -8.6 22% 25% -10.8 57% 60% -4.8
02.09.23 Halmstads BK vs IK Sirius FK 2-1 34% 35% -3.9 26% 29% -11.3 40% 43% -7.1
02.09.23 IFK Värnamo vs IF Elfsborg 1-0 29% 31% -8.7 26% 29% -11.9 46% 47% -2.0
03.09.23 Degerfors IF vs BK Häcken 1-0 21% 22% -4.2 21% 23% -6.8 58% 62% -7.2
03.09.23 Hammarby IF vs AIK Solna 4-2 43% 45% -6.2 27% 30% -11.8 31% 31% -2.0
03.09.23 IFK Norrköping FK vs Djurgardens IF 0-2 33% 35% -6.4 27% 31% -12.3 40% 42% -3.6
03.09.23 Kalmar FF vs Mjällby AIF 0-2 40% 43% -5.6 28% 32% -13.0 32% 32% -1.5
03.09.23 Malmö FF vs IFK Göteborg 2-2 68% 71% -4.4 19% 21% -11.1 13% 14% -5.6
03.09.23 Varbergs BoIS FC vs IF Brommapojkarna 4-3 28% 29% -3.3 25% 28% -9.9 47% 51% -6.3
16.09.23 Djurgardens IF vs IFK Värnamo 1-2 56% 60% -7.1 23% 26% -11.2 21% 21% -1.9
16.09.23 IFK Göteborg vs IF Brommapojkarna 1-0 51% 56% -8.8 24% 27% -10.1 25% 25% -0.9
16.09.23 IK Sirius FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC 7-0 66% 71% -7.2 19% 21% -7.8 15% 15% 1.0
17.09.23 BK Häcken vs Halmstads BK 3-2 68% 75% -8.3 18% 19% -6.3 14% 13% 2.9
17.09.23 Hammarby IF vs Malmö FF 1-3 33% 36% -8.0 27% 30% -12.1 41% 42% -2.8
17.09.23 IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF 0-3 63% 67% -5.6 21% 23% -11.0 17% 17% -5.1
18.09.23 AIK Solna vs Degerfors IF 2-0 65% 68% -5.0 20% 22% -11.1 16% 17% -6.5
18.09.23 IFK Norrköping FK vs Mjällby AIF 0-2 46% 50% -7.1 26% 30% -12.8 27% 28% -2.4
23.09.23 Degerfors IF vs Malmö FF 1-2 13% 14% -3.4 18% 20% -8.0 68% 72% -5.8
23.09.23 IF Brommapojkarna vs IFK Norrköping FK 2-2 44% 49% -10.4 25% 28% -9.3 31% 30% 2.6
24.09.23 AIK Solna vs Djurgardens IF 2-0 37% 38% -4.7 26% 29% -10.8 37% 39% -5.3
24.09.23 Kalmar FF vs BK Häcken 1-0 27% 29% -4.2 24% 27% -9.6 48% 52% -7.0
24.09.23 Mjällby AIF vs IFK Göteborg 0-1 36% 37% -2.5 28% 32% -12.9 36% 38% -5.2
24.09.23 Varbergs BoIS FC vs Hammarby IF 0-1 16% 16% -2.6 21% 23% -9.6 64% 68% -6.8
25.09.23 Halmstads BK vs IF Elfsborg 0-1 21% 23% -8.2 23% 26% -11.7 56% 58% -4.5
25.09.23 IFK Värnamo vs IK Sirius FK 0-1 37% 39% -5.5 26% 29% -10.6 37% 40% -6.5
30.09.23 Djurgardens IF vs Halmstads BK 1-0 63% 67% -5.4 21% 23% -11.1 16% 17% -4.2
30.09.23 IFK Norrköping FK vs Kalmar FF 1-0 47% 49% -3.6 26% 29% -12.6 27% 29% -7.2
01.10.23 BK Häcken vs AIK Solna 2-0 48% 53% -9.1 24% 27% -9.5 28% 28% -0.4
01.10.23 Hammarby IF vs IFK Göteborg 1-1 52% 55% -5.0 25% 29% -12.7 23% 24% -5.2
01.10.23 IK Sirius FK vs Degerfors IF 3-2 61% 63% -4.2 21% 24% -11.5 18% 20% -8.4
01.10.23 Mjällby AIF vs IFK Värnamo 2-3 40% 42% -5.1 28% 32% -13.9 33% 34% -5.2
02.10.23 IF Elfsborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC 2-1 81% 85% -5.5 12% 13% -8.3 7% 7% -1.6
02.10.23 Malmö FF vs IF Brommapojkarna 2-1 71% 78% -8.4 17% 17% -4.5 12% 12% 5.2
07.10.23 AIK Solna vs Mjällby AIF 1-0 54% 58% -6.1 25% 29% -12.8 21% 21% -1.2
07.10.23 Halmstads BK vs Degerfors IF 0-0 49% 52% -5.5 26% 29% -12.5 25% 26% -3.8
07.10.23 IFK Göteborg vs IK Sirius FK 0-1 46% 50% -7.7 26% 29% -11.9 28% 29% -2.1
08.10.23 Hammarby IF vs BK Häcken 2-2 37% 37% 0.1 25% 28% -9.9 38% 43% -10.9
08.10.23 IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg 0-3 30% 34% -11.3 25% 28% -11.2 45% 47% -2.7
08.10.23 Kalmar FF vs Malmö FF 1-0 22% 23% -4.8 24% 27% -11.1 54% 57% -5.6
08.10.23 Varbergs BoIS FC vs Djurgardens IF 0-1 16% 16% -2.6 21% 23% -9.9 64% 68% -6.5
21.10.23 Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF 1-3 37% 38% -4.9 27% 31% -12.5 36% 38% -4.4
21.10.23 IK Sirius FK vs IF Brommapojkarna 3-2 44% 48% -7.2 25% 27% -8.9 31% 32% -3.3
22.10.23 BK Häcken vs IFK Norrköping FK 4-1 66% 73% -9.4 18% 19% -3.9 16% 15% 5.1
22.10.23 Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby IF 0-0 47% 49% -3.9 26% 29% -12.5 27% 29% -6.9
22.10.23 Halmstads BK vs Mjällby AIF 1-1 40% 43% -6.7 28% 32% -13.0 32% 32% -0.1
22.10.23 Malmö FF vs Varbergs BoIS FC 5-0 86% 92% -5.9 9% 9% -1.2 5% 4% 9.0
23.10.23 IF Elfsborg vs AIK Solna 3-0 51% 56% -7.5 25% 29% -12.2 24% 24% -1.3
23.10.23 IFK Värnamo vs IFK Göteborg 3-1 34% 35% -4.1 27% 31% -12.2 39% 42% -5.6
28.10.23 IF Brommapojkarna vs Djurgardens IF 1-2 28% 30% -6.0 25% 28% -10.7 47% 50% -6.6
28.10.23 Varbergs BoIS FC vs Degerfors IF 1-1 28% 29% -3.8 25% 28% -10.0 47% 50% -6.6
29.10.23 AIK Solna vs Halmstads BK 1-1 55% 59% -5.8 24% 28% -12.7 20% 21% -2.5
29.10.23 IFK Norrköping FK vs Malmö FF 0-1 17% 18% -7.1 20% 22% -9.2 63% 67% -5.6
29.10.23 Kalmar FF vs IFK Värnamo 1-3 41% 43% -6.4 27% 30% -12.1 33% 34% -3.7
29.10.23 Mjällby AIF vs BK Häcken 2-1 24% 24% -3.5 23% 26% -9.0 53% 57% -7.1
Showing the 100 most recent of 700 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

17 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Hammarby IF 2339.01
2 Djurgardens IF 2243.93
3 BK Häcken 2180.44
4 IF Elfsborg 2126.41
5 IK Sirius FK 2123.19
6 Malmö FF 2071.49
7 Gais Göteborg 2065.90
8 IFK Göteborg 2056.54
9 Kalmar FF 2055.96
10 Västeras SK FK 1995.70
11 Mjällby AIF 1977.39
12 AIK Solna 1970.17
13 Vasteras SK FK 1963.85
14 IF Brommapojkarna 1918.69
15 Degerfors IF 1889.05
16 Halmstads BK 1876.57
17 Örgryte IS 1827.11

Away Ratings

17 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Hammarby IF 2227.60
2 Djurgardens IF 2169.40
3 BK Häcken 2115.06
4 IK Sirius FK 2094.68
5 IF Elfsborg 2064.10
6 Malmö FF 2050.87
7 IFK Göteborg 2029.53
8 Gais Göteborg 2016.45
9 Kalmar FF 1952.82
10 Västeras SK FK 1950.21
11 AIK Solna 1931.59
12 Vasteras SK FK 1923.78
13 Degerfors IF 1907.81
14 Mjällby AIF 1877.08
15 IF Brommapojkarna 1876.86
16 Örgryte IS 1851.89
17 Halmstads BK 1814.38