ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 51
Avg Goals 2.82
Avg Home 1.61
Avg Away 1.22
Home Win % 41.2%
Draw % 29.4%
Away Win % 29.4%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
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Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 51
Avg Brier Score 0.6075
Pick Accuracy 52.9%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.6422
Market Brier 0.6023
Blended Model Beats Market? No
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 6
Value Bet Hit Rate 33.3%
ROI (flat stake) 4.5%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • The blended model's Brier score does not beat the market's — ROI may reflect leftover model bias rather than genuine skill.
  • 83.3% of value bets are on 'away' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 5 of 51 matches had at least one · staked 6.00, profit 0.27 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
draw 1 0.0% 1.00 -1.00 -100.0%
away 5 40.0% 5.00 1.27 25.4%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 6.5% 12.5% 8
10–20% 14.4% 13.0% 23
20–30% 25.9% 28.6% 56
30–40% 33.6% 36.4% 22
40–50% 43.6% 50.0% 14
50–60% 55.1% 41.7% 12
60–70% 64.0% 50.0% 12
70–80% 76.0% 100.0% 2
80–90% 83.9% 75.0% 4
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
03.08.23 FC Fayzkand Vose vs CSKA Pamir 2-0 40% 50% -19.2 31% 33% -8.3 29% 29% -1.2
04.08.23 Kuktosh Rudaki vs Istiqlol Dushanbe 1-1 15% 21% -28.4 21% 24% -10.3 64% 67% -4.6
18.08.23 Kuktosh Rudaki vs Ravshan Kulob 0-2 33% 43% -24.4 29% 31% -7.3 39% 38% 0.4
09.12.23 Istiqlol Dushanbe vs Ravshan Kulob 2-0 59% 74% -20.4 24% 22% 5.8 18% 15% 18.1
01.06.24 CSKA Pamir vs Regar-TadAZ 3-1 49% 53% -7.0 28% 32% -12.0 23% 28% -18.3
19.06.24 Istiqlol Dushanbe vs Barkchi Hisor 9-1 86% 94% -8.5 9% 9% 3.3 4% 5% -10.5
26.06.24 Panjsher vs Istiqlol Dushanbe 0-3 6% 7% -15.9 15% 14% 4.7 79% 88% -10.2
30.06.24 CSKA Pamir vs Panjsher 0-0 87% 92% -5.3 10% 12% -21.4 3% 4% -25.2
09.08.24 Barkchi Hisor vs FC Istaravshan 1-0 29% 38% -23.4 27% 29% -5.2 44% 45% -3.2
11.08.24 CSKA Pamir vs FK Eskhata 0-0 49% 55% -11.2 29% 32% -9.9 22% 25% -11.4
11.08.24 Panjsher vs Ravshan Kulob 1-1 15% 23% -33.2 24% 31% -21.9 61% 58% 3.9
29.08.24 Barkchi Hisor vs Kuktosh Rudaki 1-0 45% 60% -24.7 27% 28% -2.1 27% 24% 15.2
08.09.24 CSKA Pamir vs FC Istaravshan 4-1 56% 66% -15.1 27% 29% -6.8 17% 17% -1.3
15.09.24 Panjsher vs FC Vakhsh 0-4 29% 43% -31.3 29% 35% -16.2 42% 35% 19.3
04.10.24 CSKA Pamir vs Kuktosh Rudaki 5-0 82% 93% -12.4 13% 11% 16.8 5% 4% 32.9
07.03.25 CSKA Pamir vs FK Khosilot Farkhor 2-1 42% 53% -20.4 29% 31% -6.0 28% 28% 1.8
09.03.25 Ravshan Kulob vs FC Istaravshan 1-1 58% 67% -13.1 26% 29% -7.5 15% 15% -0.8
10.03.25 Barkchi Hisor vs Regar-TadAZ 0-1 21% 24% -12.4 29% 31% -7.1 51% 58% -13.0
10.03.25 Panjsher vs Hulbuk Vose 0-2 35% 51% -31.2 28% 32% -12.9 37% 29% 26.3
14.03.25 FK Eskhata vs Ravshan Kulob 1-0 24% 30% -19.8 30% 33% -10.4 46% 50% -8.3
15.03.25 FK Khujand vs FC Vakhsh 1-2 60% 66% -9.3 26% 30% -13.4 14% 16% -12.1
16.03.25 FK Khosilot Farkhor vs Barkchi Hisor 0-3 61% 67% -8.7 24% 26% -9.7 15% 18% -15.4
28.03.25 Barkchi Hisor vs Panjsher 0-0 46% 56% -17.7 30% 32% -7.5 24% 24% 0.1
28.03.25 FC Vakhsh vs Regar-TadAZ 1-1 41% 45% -9.2 33% 38% -13.4 25% 29% -11.0
04.04.25 CSKA Pamir vs Barkchi Hisor 3-3 64% 70% -8.9 23% 26% -11.8 13% 15% -15.0
04.04.25 Hulbuk Vose vs FK Eskhata 2-5 35% 43% -18.7 29% 31% -6.2 35% 38% -6.3
06.04.25 FK Khujand vs FC Istaravshan 1-0 60% 66% -9.0 26% 29% -12.6 14% 16% -12.3
06.04.25 Panjsher vs Istiqlol Dushanbe 0-3 5% 7% -29.0 14% 17% -15.1 81% 85% -5.7
11.04.25 FC Vakhsh vs Panjsher 2-0 66% 72% -8.8 23% 27% -12.6 11% 12% -11.1
20.04.25 CSKA Pamir vs FC Vakhsh 1-2 36% 43% -14.4 33% 38% -11.7 30% 32% -6.1
28.04.25 Regar-TadAZ vs CSKA Pamir 0-1 41% 50% -17.3 30% 33% -9.0 28% 30% -6.6
02.05.25 FC Vakhsh vs Barkchi Hisor 2-2 57% 62% -8.1 26% 29% -11.9 17% 21% -16.8
09.05.25 Panjsher vs FK Eskhata 2-4 21% 27% -21.3 26% 27% -5.0 53% 58% -8.2
10.05.25 CSKA Pamir vs FC Istaravshan 4-1 51% 65% -20.2 26% 26% -0.3 22% 21% 6.9
11.05.25 Istiqlol Dushanbe vs FC Vakhsh 0-0 59% 66% -10.4 25% 28% -9.3 15% 17% -10.9
16.05.25 FC Vakhsh vs Hulbuk Vose 1-1 56% 67% -16.4 27% 28% -4.5 17% 17% 4.4
21.05.25 Barkchi Hisor vs FK Eskhata 1-0 33% 39% -15.7 32% 35% -9.4 35% 38% -8.0
23.05.25 CSKA Pamir vs FK Khujand 2-1 35% 47% -25.0 31% 34% -10.0 35% 32% 7.3
24.05.25 FC Vakhsh vs Ravshan Kulob 1-0 30% 38% -21.3 31% 34% -10.2 39% 40% -3.1
30.05.25 Panjsher vs Regar-TadAZ 1-2 12% 14% -18.6 25% 29% -11.3 63% 68% -8.0
21.06.25 CSKA Pamir vs Panjsher 5-1 66% 75% -12.0 21% 22% -4.6 13% 14% -8.4
22.06.25 Istiqlol Dushanbe vs Regar-TadAZ 2-1 42% 43% -2.3 29% 32% -10.7 29% 36% -21.0
28.06.25 Barkchi Hisor vs FK Khosilot Farkhor 0-1 29% 37% -22.5 31% 34% -10.9 41% 42% -2.7
14.08.25 Istiqlol Dushanbe vs FC Istaravshan 6-0 73% 81% -9.3 19% 21% -11.1 8% 10% -12.6
19.08.25 Barkchi Hisor vs CSKA Pamir 0-0 21% 27% -21.9 28% 31% -10.0 51% 55% -6.6
11.09.25 CSKA Pamir vs Istiqlol Dushanbe 3-3 22% 28% -21.5 28% 31% -8.9 50% 53% -6.2
18.09.25 Regar-TadAZ vs FC Istaravshan 4-2 64% 72% -10.8 23% 26% -9.3 13% 14% -9.1
24.09.25 Istiqlol Dushanbe vs Barkchi Hisor 2-1 68% 72% -6.0 20% 24% -15.5 12% 15% -23.2
17.10.25 Regar-TadAZ vs Hulbuk Vose 0-0 63% 71% -12.0 23% 25% -6.6 14% 15% -7.1
05.11.25 Regar-TadAZ vs Panjsher 1-2 69% 72% -4.6 20% 24% -17.8 11% 14% -24.1
10.11.25 Panjsher vs FK Khosilot Farkhor 1-1 30% 40% -25.5 29% 31% -8.7 42% 41% 2.1

Home Ratings

12 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Istiqlol Dushanbe 1827.86
2 Ravshan Kulob 1645.20
3 FK Khujand 1634.17
4 FK Khosilot Farkhor 1563.02
5 CSKA Pamir 1562.86
6 Regar-TadAZ 1557.18
7 FC Vakhsh 1529.20
8 Hulbuk Vose 1523.68
9 FC Istaravshan 1494.19
10 FK Eskhata 1420.40
11 Panjsher 1376.38
12 Barkchi Hisor 1354.32

Away Ratings

12 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Istiqlol Dushanbe 1886.08
2 Regar-TadAZ 1578.11
3 FK Khujand 1567.35
4 Ravshan Kulob 1536.01
5 CSKA Pamir 1478.96
6 FC Vakhsh 1472.58
7 Barkchi Hisor 1390.35
8 FK Khosilot Farkhor 1379.89
9 FK Eskhata 1375.56
10 Hulbuk Vose 1297.83
11 Panjsher 1275.10
12 FC Istaravshan 1266.18