ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 576
Avg Goals 1.92
Avg Home 1.13
Avg Away 0.78
Home Win % 45.5%
Draw % 29.5%
Away Win % 25.0%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
Calculating…
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 576
Avg Brier Score 0.5533
Pick Accuracy 55.6%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.5601
Market Brier 0.5560
Blended Model Beats Market? Yes
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 2
Value Bet Hit Rate 50.0%
ROI (flat stake) 2.5%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • 100.0% of value bets are on 'home' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 2 of 576 matches had at least one · staked 2.00, profit 0.05 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 2 50.0% 2.00 0.05 2.5%
draw 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
away 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 6.9% 4.6% 130
10–20% 15.2% 14.9% 329
20–30% 25.3% 24.7% 372
30–40% 34.2% 36.2% 439
40–50% 45.2% 43.0% 135
50–60% 55.1% 50.5% 111
60–70% 64.8% 67.6% 108
70–80% 75.1% 80.8% 73
80–90% 83.3% 76.7% 30
90–100% 90.1% 100.0% 1
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
19.08.23 AS Slimane vs Stade Tunisien 1-2 25% 29% -12.5 32% 34% -4.2 43% 51% -15.8
19.08.23 Esperance Tunis vs AS Marsa 1-0 75% 76% -1.5 17% 23% -24.7 8% 12% -34.5
20.08.23 CS Sfaxien vs CA Bizertin 2-0 61% 62% -1.0 27% 32% -17.4 12% 17% -29.6
23.08.23 Olympique Beja vs Etoile Sahel 2-1 9% 14% -32.1 22% 28% -21.2 69% 70% -1.7
26.08.23 Club Africain vs Gawafel Gafsah 0-0 69% 71% -2.3 21% 26% -19.9 10% 14% -32.5
27.08.23 AS Marsa vs CS Sfaxien 0-1 28% 34% -18.3 34% 37% -7.2 37% 41% -8.2
27.08.23 CA Bizertin vs US Monastir 0-2 31% 36% -12.3 34% 36% -5.9 34% 41% -15.6
27.08.23 US Tataouine vs Esperance Tunis 1-1 7% 11% -32.5 17% 22% -20.7 76% 78% -3.2
30.08.23 Stade Tunisien vs Olympique Beja 3-0 65% 66% -1.5 23% 29% -18.3 12% 17% -31.9
02.09.23 CS Sfaxien vs US Tataouine 3-0 79% 81% -2.4 15% 20% -25.5 6% 9% -34.3
02.09.23 Esperance Tunis vs ES Metlaoui 3-2 80% 83% -3.4 15% 20% -25.4 5% 8% -34.2
02.09.23 US Monastir vs AS Marsa 3-1 55% 59% -6.4 28% 31% -8.9 16% 22% -24.2
03.09.23 Gawafel Gafsah vs Etoile Sahel 0-3 14% 20% -31.0 26% 31% -17.8 61% 61% -0.1
03.09.23 Olympique Beja vs AS Slimane 2-1 57% 60% -4.4 28% 32% -13.2 15% 21% -27.5
16.09.23 Stade Tunisien vs Gawafel Gafsah 2-2 70% 75% -6.4 22% 25% -12.8 8% 11% -26.7
17.09.23 AS Marsa vs CA Bizertin 0-0 47% 50% -5.4 32% 35% -9.4 21% 28% -23.9
17.09.23 ES Metlaoui vs CS Sfaxien 1-0 21% 28% -24.4 31% 35% -10.1 48% 50% -4.7
17.09.23 US Tataouine vs US Monastir 2-2 11% 15% -26.4 23% 26% -10.7 66% 71% -6.7
21.09.23 Etoile Sahel vs Club Africain 1-1 55% 56% -3.3 29% 34% -13.2 16% 22% -26.7
23.09.23 Gawafel Gafsah vs AS Slimane 1-0 50% 52% -3.6 31% 34% -11.3 19% 26% -26.1
24.09.23 CA Bizertin vs US Tataouine 1-0 55% 53% 3.8 27% 33% -18.7 18% 26% -32.9
24.09.23 Club Africain vs Stade Tunisien 1-1 53% 55% -3.9 29% 33% -11.9 18% 24% -26.9
24.09.23 CS Sfaxien vs Esperance Tunis 0-1 28% 31% -11.1 35% 38% -7.0 37% 43% -14.7
24.09.23 US Monastir vs ES Metlaoui 3-2 72% 75% -4.3 19% 23% -16.1 9% 12% -30.8
07.10.23 AS Slimane vs Club Africain 1-2 14% 19% -25.7 29% 34% -14.5 56% 58% -3.0
07.10.23 Esperance Tunis vs US Monastir 2-0 62% 62% -0.5 24% 29% -17.6 14% 20% -31.9
07.10.23 Stade Tunisien vs Etoile Sahel 0-1 23% 30% -24.5 32% 35% -9.4 46% 48% -4.3
08.10.23 ES Metlaoui vs CA Bizertin 1-1 45% 50% -9.2 33% 36% -8.0 22% 27% -19.4
08.10.23 Olympique Beja vs Gawafel Gafsah 1-0 50% 55% -8.3 30% 32% -6.2 19% 24% -20.8
22.10.23 AS Marsa vs ES Metlaoui 1-1 45% 50% -9.8 32% 35% -6.9 22% 28% -19.1
22.10.23 Club Africain vs Olympique Beja 3-1 67% 68% -1.0 22% 27% -20.4 11% 17% -33.2
28.10.23 CA Bizertin vs CS Sfaxien 0-0 24% 29% -19.1 34% 37% -8.2 42% 45% -7.1
28.10.23 Etoile Sahel vs Olympique Beja 0-0 74% 74% -0.6 18% 24% -25.7 9% 13% -35.0
28.10.23 Stade Tunisien vs AS Slimane 1-0 72% 74% -2.8 19% 24% -19.2 9% 13% -32.3
29.10.23 US Tataouine vs ES Metlaoui 0-0 35% 43% -17.4 32% 33% -2.7 32% 36% -10.8
04.11.23 Gawafel Gafsah vs Club Africain 0-1 20% 27% -24.3 30% 32% -8.1 50% 53% -6.7
04.11.23 Olympique Beja vs Stade Tunisien 0-1 44% 51% -13.9 32% 34% -4.8 24% 28% -15.1
05.11.23 CS Sfaxien vs AS Marsa 3-0 66% 67% -1.9 23% 28% -18.1 11% 17% -31.7
05.11.23 US Ben Guerdane vs Etoile Sahel 0-0 20% 26% -22.0 31% 34% -7.5 48% 48% 0.2
05.11.23 US Monastir vs CA Bizertin 1-0 69% 72% -3.4 21% 25% -17.1 10% 14% -31.4
08.11.23 CA Bizertin vs Esperance Tunis 0-2 12% 17% -29.4 24% 29% -15.6 64% 67% -3.8
11.11.23 AS Marsa vs US Monastir 0-3 18% 23% -20.9 30% 32% -7.2 52% 56% -8.3
11.11.23 Etoile Sahel vs Gawafel Gafsah 2-1 75% 75% -0.3 18% 24% -27.8 7% 11% -35.2
11.11.23 US Tataouine vs CS Sfaxien 0-1 14% 20% -28.1 27% 31% -13.7 59% 61% -3.7
12.11.23 AS Slimane vs Olympique Beja 2-0 32% 38% -17.4 34% 36% -5.5 34% 38% -10.4
12.11.23 ES Metlaoui vs Esperance Tunis 0-2 10% 15% -31.6 22% 28% -19.7 68% 68% -1.4
12.11.23 Stade Tunisien vs US Ben Guerdane 2-1 56% 61% -7.8 30% 30% -2.6 15% 17% -12.5
25.11.23 CA Bizertin vs AS Marsa 3-1 51% 54% -5.1 31% 35% -11.2 18% 23% -23.9
25.11.23 CS Sfaxien vs ES Metlaoui 2-0 71% 74% -4.0 21% 25% -17.9 9% 13% -31.3
26.11.23 Gawafel Gafsah vs Stade Tunisien 1-3 31% 39% -19.9 34% 37% -7.0 34% 36% -6.1
26.11.23 US Ben Guerdane vs AS Slimane 2-1 60% 61% -1.4 27% 29% -9.7 14% 18% -24.8
26.11.23 US Monastir vs US Tataouine 3-0 82% 84% -3.0 13% 17% -26.3 6% 9% -35.0
05.12.23 AS Marsa vs Esperance Tunis 0-1 8% 12% -32.8 20% 26% -22.4 72% 74% -2.1
13.12.23 Esperance Tunis vs US Tataouine 3-0 85% 88% -2.7 10% 15% -32.1 5% 7% -35.9
14.12.23 Club Africain vs Etoile Sahel 0-1 47% 51% -9.3 34% 38% -9.4 19% 23% -16.4
26.12.23 AS Slimane vs Gawafel Gafsah 0-2 41% 44% -7.8 34% 37% -8.2 25% 31% -19.9
26.12.23 Olympique Beja vs US Ben Guerdane 1-1 39% 41% -6.1 35% 37% -4.3 26% 30% -12.8
26.12.23 Stade Tunisien vs Club Africain 2-1 31% 40% -21.4 33% 36% -6.3 35% 37% -5.3
27.12.23 ES Metlaoui vs US Monastir 0-3 14% 20% -27.8 27% 31% -13.3 59% 61% -4.0
27.12.23 Esperance Tunis vs CS Sfaxien 1-0 68% 70% -3.5 21% 25% -15.8 11% 16% -31.4
27.12.23 US Tataouine vs CA Bizertin 1-2 42% 49% -13.8 33% 35% -4.8 25% 29% -13.2
30.12.23 AS Marsa vs US Tataouine 0-1 53% 56% -5.5 29% 32% -9.4 18% 24% -25.1
30.12.23 CA Bizertin vs ES Metlaoui 4-2 49% 55% -10.2 31% 33% -6.8 20% 24% -19.6
30.12.23 Club Africain vs AS Slimane 1-0 81% 84% -3.7 13% 17% -23.5 6% 9% -34.2
30.12.23 Etoile Sahel vs Stade Tunisien 0-0 64% 68% -6.4 24% 27% -10.6 12% 17% -26.9
30.12.23 Gawafel Gafsah vs Olympique Beja 1-0 40% 44% -10.7 34% 36% -6.0 27% 32% -17.1
30.12.23 US Monastir vs Esperance Tunis 1-2 30% 34% -12.4 35% 37% -6.7 35% 42% -15.5
03.01.24 AS Slimane vs Etoile Sahel 1-2 9% 13% -29.5 22% 26% -16.7 69% 72% -4.1
03.01.24 CS Sfaxien vs US Monastir 0-0 42% 48% -11.9 33% 35% -6.0 25% 30% -17.3
03.01.24 ES Metlaoui vs AS Marsa 0-1 54% 59% -8.7 30% 32% -7.7 17% 21% -20.6
03.01.24 Esperance Tunis vs CA Bizertin 1-1 80% 82% -2.2 14% 19% -25.7 6% 9% -34.5
03.01.24 Olympique Beja vs Club Africain 0-1 21% 29% -25.1 31% 35% -10.3 47% 49% -3.0
03.01.24 US Ben Guerdane vs Gawafel Gafsah 5-0 59% 61% -2.1 26% 29% -8.7 14% 19% -24.6
06.02.24 CA Bizertin vs ES Metlaoui 2-0 56% 62% -9.8 30% 33% -9.9 14% 17% -18.5
06.02.24 US Tataouine vs AS Marsa 2-1 36% 41% -11.9 33% 35% -4.6 31% 37% -16.8
07.02.24 AS Slimane vs Olympique Beja 3-1 36% 41% -12.4 35% 38% -7.0 29% 34% -14.1
07.02.24 Gawafel Gafsah vs US Ben Guerdane 0-0 33% 37% -11.8 35% 36% -2.5 33% 35% -7.3
10.02.24 ES Metlaoui vs US Tataouine 0-0 54% 58% -6.7 28% 31% -7.5 18% 23% -23.9
11.02.24 AS Marsa vs Gawafel Gafsah 1-0 44% 49% -10.3 33% 35% -6.4 23% 29% -18.0
11.02.24 Olympique Beja vs CA Bizertin 0-0 39% 43% -10.4 35% 37% -6.6 26% 31% -15.4
11.02.24 US Ben Guerdane vs AS Slimane 1-0 64% 64% 0.8 25% 29% -15.8 11% 15% -28.4
17.02.24 CA Bizertin vs US Ben Guerdane 2-0 39% 43% -8.0 37% 40% -6.5 23% 25% -7.5
17.02.24 US Tataouine vs Olympique Beja 0-0 29% 32% -11.3 34% 35% -4.2 38% 44% -15.0
18.02.24 AS Slimane vs Gawafel Gafsah 2-0 47% 52% -10.2 32% 34% -5.8 22% 26% -18.1
18.02.24 ES Metlaoui vs AS Marsa 3-1 42% 48% -12.1 33% 35% -5.3 25% 29% -15.3
24.02.24 Gawafel Gafsah vs CA Bizertin 1-0 39% 47% -15.2 34% 36% -5.8 26% 29% -10.7
25.02.24 AS Marsa vs AS Slimane 0-1 46% 49% -6.2 32% 35% -7.4 22% 28% -20.9
25.02.24 Olympique Beja vs ES Metlaoui 2-1 54% 57% -5.4 30% 34% -11.5 16% 21% -24.3
25.02.24 US Ben Guerdane vs US Tataouine 0-0 65% 64% 2.2 23% 27% -16.4 12% 17% -30.3
02.03.24 CA Bizertin vs AS Slimane 2-0 52% 55% -5.0 31% 36% -12.5 17% 22% -24.4
03.03.24 ES Metlaoui vs US Ben Guerdane 3-1 31% 38% -16.6 35% 37% -4.5 33% 33% -0.6
03.03.24 Olympique Beja vs AS Marsa 3-0 58% 62% -5.4 28% 31% -10.9 14% 18% -24.4
05.03.24 Esperance Tunis vs Stade Tunisien 2-0 70% 72% -2.8 20% 25% -18.4 10% 14% -32.1
06.03.24 CS Sfaxien vs Club Africain 0-0 37% 43% -15.7 36% 39% -7.8 27% 29% -7.5
06.03.24 US Monastir vs Etoile Sahel 0-0 45% 50% -9.2 32% 35% -7.6 22% 28% -20.1
09.03.24 CA Bizertin vs AS Marsa 1-0 74% 79% -6.4 20% 23% -13.9 6% 9% -26.4
09.03.24 Club Africain vs US Monastir 1-0 43% 47% -7.5 35% 38% -10.0 22% 28% -19.5
09.03.24 Gawafel Gafsah vs ES Metlaoui 1-0 43% 51% -14.4 34% 36% -5.9 23% 26% -11.9
10.03.24 AS Slimane vs US Tataouine 1-3 53% 56% -5.3 30% 34% -11.2 17% 23% -25.1
10.03.24 Etoile Sahel vs Esperance Tunis 0-1 23% 27% -12.7 37% 42% -10.7 40% 44% -11.0
Showing the 100 most recent of 576 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

16 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Esperance Tunis 1959.96
2 Club Africain 1910.48
3 Stade Tunisien 1858.08
4 CS Sfaxien 1849.76
5 US Monastir 1793.95
6 ES Zarzis 1770.16
7 CA Bizertin 1759.13
8 Etoile Sahel 1750.72
9 US Ben Guerdane 1716.79
10 ES Metlaoui 1715.51
11 AS Marsa 1710.03
12 PS Sakiet Eddaier 1669.98
13 ES Hammam Sousse 1646.31
14 CS Hammam Lif 1620.83
15 Olympique Beja 1609.18
16 JS Omrane 1604.64

Away Ratings

16 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Esperance Tunis 1920.19
2 Club Africain 1837.10
3 CS Sfaxien 1790.27
4 Stade Tunisien 1739.95
5 US Monastir 1723.51
6 Etoile Sahel 1672.74
7 ES Zarzis 1666.53
8 CA Bizertin 1655.76
9 US Ben Guerdane 1647.08
10 PS Sakiet Eddaier 1646.22
11 JS Omrane 1541.21
12 AS Marsa 1538.88
13 ES Hammam Sousse 1531.40
14 ES Metlaoui 1514.10
15 CS Hammam Lif 1501.69
16 Olympique Beja 1486.95