ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 586
Avg Goals 2.06
Avg Home 1.31
Avg Away 0.76
Home Win % 48.6%
Draw % 30.7%
Away Win % 20.6%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 586
Avg Brier Score 0.5903
Pick Accuracy 51.7%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.5930
Market Brier 0.5914
Blended Model Beats Market? Yes
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 2
Value Bet Hit Rate 0.0%
ROI (flat stake) -100.0%
ROI Trustworthy? Yes
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 1 of 586 matches had at least one · staked 2.00, profit -2.00 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 1 0.0% 1.00 -1.00 -100.0%
draw 1 0.0% 1.00 -1.00 -100.0%
away 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 7.4% 11.4% 35
10–20% 15.8% 11.4% 255
20–30% 25.7% 23.1% 454
30–40% 33.3% 34.8% 572
40–50% 45.2% 44.6% 175
50–60% 54.4% 62.2% 172
60–70% 64.2% 65.8% 73
70–80% 74.4% 70.0% 20
80–90% 81.5% 100.0% 2
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
07.10.23 CS Korba vs CS Msaken 2-0 51% 55% -5.9 30% 34% -11.7 19% 24% -21.7
08.10.23 CS Hammam Lif vs Jendouba Sport 1-0 57% 64% -10.0 27% 29% -7.9 16% 19% -18.1
08.10.23 SC Moknine vs EO Sidi Bouzid 1-1 38% 44% -13.8 32% 35% -7.4 29% 33% -12.4
08.10.23 Sporting Ben Arous vs ES Hammam Sousse 1-0 26% 29% -9.1 31% 33% -5.9 43% 51% -15.6
14.10.23 CS Msaken vs Sporting Ben Arous 2-0 48% 53% -10.6 31% 34% -8.8 21% 24% -14.9
14.10.23 ES Rades vs AS Ariana 2-0 50% 54% -8.0 31% 35% -10.5 19% 23% -17.0
14.10.23 JS Omrane vs CS Korba 0-0 53% 59% -9.1 29% 32% -9.4 17% 21% -17.9
14.10.23 Kalaa Sport vs CS Hammam Lif 0-0 28% 31% -10.9 34% 37% -9.1 39% 44% -13.3
15.10.23 AS Gabes vs SC Moknine 2-1 47% 56% -16.0 31% 32% -5.4 22% 24% -8.7
15.10.23 Club Olympique Medenine vs Stade Gabesien 0-0 43% 49% -11.2 32% 35% -8.2 24% 29% -14.5
15.10.23 EM Mahdia vs ES Djerba 0-1 45% 53% -15.2 32% 34% -7.2 23% 25% -8.3
15.10.23 EO Sidi Bouzid vs OC Kerkennah 1-0 56% 63% -10.8 28% 30% -8.4 16% 19% -17.2
15.10.23 ES Hammam Sousse vs Jendouba Sport 0-1 54% 61% -10.2 29% 31% -7.9 17% 20% -15.9
21.10.23 AS Ariana vs CS Tabarka 2-1 41% 47% -11.3 33% 36% -8.7 26% 29% -13.1
21.10.23 CS Hammam Lif vs ES Rades 2-1 58% 63% -8.0 27% 31% -11.2 14% 18% -20.6
21.10.23 CS Korba vs JS Kairouan 1-1 38% 43% -12.6 34% 37% -9.0 28% 32% -12.2
21.10.23 ES Hammam Sousse vs Kalaa Sport 1-0 46% 48% -3.3 31% 35% -11.5 23% 30% -23.8
21.10.23 Jendouba Sport vs CS Msaken 3-0 55% 59% -6.9 29% 32% -10.1 16% 20% -18.8
21.10.23 Sporting Ben Arous vs JS Omrane 0-1 35% 41% -13.6 34% 38% -9.2 30% 34% -10.1
22.10.23 AS Rejiche vs CS Chebba 1-2 33% 37% -10.2 33% 36% -8.3 33% 39% -14.9
28.10.23 AS Oued Ellil vs CS Korba 1-2 52% 56% -7.0 30% 34% -11.5 18% 22% -20.2
28.10.23 JS Kairouan vs Sporting Ben Arous 3-0 59% 66% -11.0 28% 30% -8.6 14% 16% -14.2
29.10.23 EM Mahdia vs CS Chebba 0-0 26% 31% -16.4 31% 34% -7.3 42% 47% -8.7
29.10.23 Kalaa Sport vs Jendouba Sport 1-3 46% 51% -9.6 31% 34% -8.9 23% 28% -17.5
29.10.23 SC Moknine vs Stade Gabesien 2-1 42% 48% -11.8 33% 36% -8.5 25% 29% -13.8
04.11.23 CS Chebba vs ES Zarzis 2-0 46% 48% -3.6 32% 36% -11.6 22% 28% -21.1
04.11.23 Jendouba Sport vs ES Rades 3-1 45% 51% -10.6 32% 35% -8.5 23% 27% -14.6
04.11.23 Kalaa Sport vs JS Omrane 0-0 34% 36% -4.0 31% 33% -6.1 34% 43% -20.8
04.11.23 Sporting Ben Arous vs AS Oued Ellil 0-1 35% 39% -10.4 34% 38% -9.1 31% 35% -13.0
05.11.23 Club Olympique Medenine vs EM Mahdia 2-0 50% 57% -11.8 31% 33% -8.0 19% 22% -13.0
05.11.23 CS Hammam Lif vs AS Ariana 3-1 74% 78% -4.6 20% 25% -19.0 6% 8% -24.9
05.11.23 CS Msaken vs JS Kairouan 1-0 37% 41% -10.5 34% 37% -9.0 30% 35% -14.5
05.11.23 ES Rogba vs SC Moknine 0-1 45% 51% -12.1 32% 34% -7.1 23% 27% -13.3
05.11.23 Stade Gabesien vs OC Kerkennah 1-1 65% 74% -12.1 25% 26% -5.4 10% 11% -8.3
11.11.23 CS Korba vs Kalaa Sport 1-0 53% 59% -10.3 31% 35% -10.8 16% 18% -12.5
11.11.23 ES Rades vs Sporting Ben Arous 1-0 59% 66% -10.3 27% 29% -8.2 14% 17% -16.1
11.11.23 JS Kairouan vs CS Hammam Lif 1-1 31% 36% -13.6 36% 41% -11.4 32% 35% -7.6
12.11.23 CS Msaken vs CS Tabarka 2-1 58% 67% -13.8 28% 29% -4.6 14% 15% -4.7
12.11.23 EM Mahdia vs OC Kerkennah 2-1 53% 63% -16.9 30% 31% -4.1 18% 18% -1.8
12.11.23 ES Zarzis vs Stade Gabesien 4-0 54% 62% -12.0 30% 32% -8.1 16% 18% -11.6
18.11.23 AS Ariana vs JS Kairouan 0-1 47% 56% -17.0 31% 33% -5.7 22% 23% -3.4
18.11.23 ES Rades vs CS Msaken 0-0 58% 65% -11.6 28% 30% -8.1 14% 17% -13.9
18.11.23 Jendouba Sport vs CS Korba 1-0 51% 58% -12.2 30% 32% -6.7 19% 21% -11.7
18.11.23 Kalaa Sport vs Sporting Ben Arous 0-0 53% 60% -10.8 30% 34% -10.0 16% 19% -13.8
19.11.23 Club Olympique Medenine vs AS Jelma 1-1 59% 68% -14.6 27% 28% -2.8 14% 15% -5.8
19.11.23 CS Hammam Lif vs AS Oued Ellil 4-0 65% 71% -7.9 24% 26% -9.9 11% 14% -20.4
19.11.23 OC Kerkennah vs ES Zarzis 1-1 18% 20% -12.2 29% 31% -6.9 54% 61% -12.3
19.11.23 SC Moknine vs EM Mahdia 0-0 49% 55% -11.5 31% 33% -7.5 21% 24% -13.7
19.11.23 Stade Gabesien vs AS Gabes 1-0 44% 50% -11.2 33% 37% -10.1 22% 26% -12.9
25.11.23 AS Oued Ellil vs AS Ariana 1-0 51% 56% -8.7 30% 33% -9.7 19% 23% -18.1
25.11.23 CS Korba vs ES Hammam Sousse 1-0 41% 48% -14.0 32% 35% -7.7 27% 30% -12.0
25.11.23 CS Msaken vs Kalaa Sport 0-0 55% 62% -12.6 29% 30% -5.8 17% 19% -11.8
26.11.23 AS Gabes vs OC Kerkennah 1-0 65% 68% -5.1 25% 29% -15.6 10% 13% -23.6
26.11.23 AS Jelma vs AS Rejiche 1-1 42% 50% -15.9 32% 34% -7.0 26% 29% -9.3
26.11.23 EM Mahdia vs EO Sidi Bouzid 1-1 53% 62% -14.5 30% 32% -6.0 16% 17% -2.5
26.11.23 ES Zarzis vs SC Moknine 2-1 63% 70% -9.9 25% 28% -9.5 11% 14% -17.4
27.11.23 Sporting Ben Arous vs Jendouba Sport 0-2 22% 24% -8.4 31% 32% -5.4 47% 56% -15.1
02.12.23 AS Ariana vs CS Msaken 1-0 42% 49% -12.9 32% 34% -5.8 26% 29% -10.4
02.12.23 ES Hammam Sousse vs JS Kairouan 1-0 42% 45% -7.1 31% 34% -9.0 26% 33% -20.8
02.12.23 Jendouba Sport vs AS Oued Ellil 1-0 69% 76% -8.3 23% 26% -11.6 8% 10% -17.1
03.12.23 CS Hammam Lif vs JS Omrane 0-1 60% 66% -8.4 27% 30% -11.4 13% 16% -19.4
03.12.23 ES Rades vs CS Korba 2-0 47% 55% -13.2 32% 34% -7.8 21% 23% -10.0
03.12.23 OC Kerkennah vs CS Chebba 1-1 22% 26% -13.2 31% 33% -7.5 47% 53% -12.3
03.12.23 SC Moknine vs AS Jelma 0-0 52% 60% -14.1 29% 31% -4.6 19% 21% -9.2
03.12.23 Stade Gabesien vs EM Mahdia 1-1 46% 53% -14.1 32% 34% -7.0 22% 24% -7.8
09.12.23 AS Oued Ellil vs Kalaa Sport 0-0 49% 56% -12.8 32% 35% -8.3 19% 20% -7.2
09.12.23 CS Korba vs CS Tabarka 4-1 61% 71% -14.1 27% 28% -4.0 12% 13% -3.7
09.12.23 JS Kairouan vs Jendouba Sport 1-1 36% 42% -13.7 33% 36% -8.2 31% 34% -11.1
09.12.23 JS Omrane vs ES Hammam Sousse 3-0 52% 56% -6.9 30% 33% -11.4 18% 23% -21.4
10.12.23 AS Jelma vs OC Kerkennah 3-2 47% 51% -8.7 33% 36% -10.4 21% 24% -15.5
10.12.23 CS Msaken vs CS Hammam Lif 1-0 24% 29% -16.2 33% 38% -11.3 43% 47% -8.4
10.12.23 EM Mahdia vs ES Rogba 0-1 49% 53% -7.5 31% 35% -10.4 19% 23% -17.3
10.12.23 ES Djerba vs SC Moknine 1-2 51% 55% -7.0 31% 35% -11.8 18% 22% -19.2
10.12.23 Sporting Ben Arous vs AS Ariana 1-1 46% 53% -12.1 33% 36% -8.9 21% 24% -11.2
16.12.23 AS Ariana vs CS Korba 0-0 41% 49% -16.2 34% 37% -8.8 25% 27% -5.0
16.12.23 CS Hammam Lif vs Sporting Ben Arous 2-0 79% 83% -4.7 18% 23% -21.3 3% 4% -22.9
16.12.23 ES Hammam Sousse vs CS Msaken 3-2 55% 60% -8.8 29% 32% -9.5 16% 19% -16.5
16.12.23 Jendouba Sport vs JS Omrane 2-2 47% 52% -8.5 33% 36% -10.6 20% 24% -15.6
16.12.23 Kalaa Sport vs JS Kairouan 2-2 38% 44% -13.6 35% 38% -9.8 27% 29% -8.6
17.12.23 AS Rejiche vs EM Mahdia 0-0 39% 43% -8.0 32% 34% -7.2 29% 35% -17.7
17.12.23 EO Sidi Bouzid vs AS Gabes 0-1 38% 43% -11.6 34% 38% -9.5 27% 31% -12.3
17.12.23 OC Kerkennah vs ES Djerba 1-0 38% 43% -9.8 34% 37% -9.5 28% 33% -15.8
20.12.23 AS Oued Ellil vs CS Msaken 1-0 50% 57% -12.5 32% 35% -9.1 18% 20% -9.4
20.12.23 CS Korba vs CS Hammam Lif 0-0 36% 44% -19.9 33% 36% -8.1 32% 32% -2.1
20.12.23 ES Hammam Sousse vs AS Ariana 3-0 57% 62% -9.3 27% 29% -7.8 16% 20% -19.1
20.12.23 ES Zarzis vs EM Mahdia 2-1 68% 76% -9.8 23% 24% -7.1 9% 11% -14.2
20.12.23 Jendouba Sport vs CS Tabarka 1-0 76% 85% -10.8 18% 18% -0.3 6% 7% -8.7
20.12.23 Kalaa Sport vs ES Rades 0-0 42% 48% -12.6 33% 36% -8.3 26% 29% -12.8
21.12.23 Club Olympique Medenine vs EO Sidi Bouzid 1-2 48% 56% -13.2 31% 34% -7.4 20% 23% -10.3
21.12.23 ES Djerba vs Stade Gabesien 1-0 46% 51% -11.1 32% 36% -9.3 22% 26% -14.0
21.12.23 ES Rogba vs OC Kerkennah 1-1 54% 60% -8.6 29% 33% -11.7 16% 20% -19.3
27.12.23 AS Ariana vs Jendouba Sport 1-0 31% 38% -19.0 33% 36% -8.7 36% 38% -5.8
27.12.23 CS Tabarka vs Kalaa Sport 1-1 36% 43% -14.2 33% 36% -8.1 30% 33% -9.8
28.12.23 AS Jelma vs ES Djerba 1-1 31% 35% -12.2 33% 36% -8.5 36% 42% -13.3
28.12.23 CS Hammam Lif vs ES Hammam Sousse 2-1 61% 66% -7.2 25% 29% -10.8 13% 17% -21.6
28.12.23 EM Mahdia vs AS Gabes 1-1 32% 36% -12.7 34% 37% -8.9 35% 39% -12.0
28.12.23 ES Zarzis vs EO Sidi Bouzid 3-0 68% 76% -10.0 23% 24% -7.3 9% 11% -15.1
28.12.23 OC Kerkennah vs AS Rejiche 1-0 54% 62% -12.9 29% 31% -6.4 17% 19% -11.9
28.12.23 SC Moknine vs Club Olympique Medenine 2-0 51% 60% -15.0 29% 29% -3.1 20% 23% -10.9
28.12.23 Sporting Ben Arous vs CS Korba 1-1 28% 34% -17.0 34% 38% -10.3 38% 41% -6.8
Showing the 100 most recent of 586 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

33 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 AS Kasserine 1688.38
2 JS Kairouan 1652.38
3 US Tataouine 1647.56
4 Sfax Railways Sports 1629.78
5 AS Slimane 1597.89
6 CS Korba 1585.75
7 Stade Gabesien 1583.69
8 US Bousalem 1548.15
9 Olympique du Kef 1545.53
10 Jendouba Sport 1539.57
11 Kalaa Sport 1537.84
12 Gawafel Gafsah 1535.61
13 ES Bouchamma 1524.75
14 EM Mahdia 1516.30
15 US Ksour Essef 1506.84
16 AS Ariana 1505.77
17 CS Redeyef 1504.06
18 AS Megrine 1500.89
19 AS Gabes 1498.79
20 Es Beni Khalled 1480.45
21 EO Sidi Bouzid 1474.81
22 AS Jelma 1474.11
23 OC Kerkennah 1469.51
24 CS Msaken 1468.64
25 SA Menzel Bourguiba 1467.84
26 CS Chebba 1461.51
27 Sporting Ben Arous 1459.69
28 BS Bouhajla 1447.43
29 AS Agareb 1431.29
30 Stade Soussien 1389.88
31 Etoile Sportive Beni-Khalled 1385.48
32 SC Moknine 1362.22
33 Club Olympique Medenine 1345.21

Away Ratings

33 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 JS Kairouan 1705.10
2 Etoile Sportive Beni-Khalled 1550.00
3 AS Kasserine 1541.61
4 Stade Gabesien 1534.25
5 AS Slimane 1509.37
6 US Tataouine 1496.23
7 Jendouba Sport 1495.03
8 US Ksour Essef 1475.28
9 ES Bouchamma 1468.87
10 CS Chebba 1463.94
11 CS Korba 1457.09
12 Kalaa Sport 1446.23
13 Olympique du Kef 1437.39
14 Gawafel Gafsah 1435.90
15 Sfax Railways Sports 1423.39
16 Sporting Ben Arous 1409.76
17 CS Redeyef 1407.71
18 BS Bouhajla 1397.74
19 SC Moknine 1382.43
20 Es Beni Khalled 1380.45
21 OC Kerkennah 1378.79
22 CS Msaken 1375.98
23 AS Megrine 1371.79
24 AS Ariana 1366.70
25 Stade Soussien 1353.70
26 AS Gabes 1348.23
27 Club Olympique Medenine 1345.31
28 EM Mahdia 1332.11
29 SA Menzel Bourguiba 1314.49
30 AS Agareb 1262.16
31 US Bousalem 1255.92
32 EO Sidi Bouzid 1251.26
33 AS Jelma 1216.97