ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 985
Avg Goals 2.79
Avg Home 1.57
Avg Away 1.22
Home Win % 45.9%
Draw % 25.8%
Away Win % 28.3%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
Calculating…
No rows yet Rows will be created automatically from the league size.
Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 985
Avg Brier Score 0.5543
Pick Accuracy 57.8%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.5541
Market Brier 0.5543
Blended Model Beats Market? No
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 1
Value Bet Hit Rate 0.0%
ROI (flat stake) -100.0%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • The blended model's Brier score does not beat the market's — ROI may reflect leftover model bias rather than genuine skill.
  • 100.0% of value bets are on 'home' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 1 of 985 matches had at least one · staked 1.00, profit -1.00 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 1 0.0% 1.00 -1.00 -100.0%
draw 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
away 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 7.6% 3.4% 87
10–20% 15.7% 11.6% 344
20–30% 26.0% 23.7% 1268
30–40% 34.7% 33.1% 441
40–50% 44.6% 49.3% 379
50–60% 54.4% 62.7% 212
60–70% 64.3% 73.0% 115
70–80% 75.4% 83.1% 89
80–90% 83.4% 84.2% 19
90–100% 92.0% 100.0% 1
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
11.08.23 Trabzonspor vs Antalyaspor 1-0 48% 54% -10.5 27% 28% -4.4 25% 26% -2.1
12.08.23 Kasimpasa Istanbul vs Ankaragücü 3-2 37% 38% -4.9 28% 30% -6.7 35% 39% -10.4
12.08.23 Kayserispor vs Galatasaray 0-0 16% 18% -13.4 21% 23% -5.5 63% 66% -5.2
12.08.23 Konyaspor vs Istanbulspor 1-1 49% 56% -12.7 26% 27% -3.3 25% 24% 1.8
13.08.23 Adana Demirspor vs Caykur Rizespor 2-1 61% 66% -7.8 22% 22% -2.8 17% 19% -9.0
13.08.23 Fenerbahce vs Gazisehir Gaziantep FK 2-1 75% 79% -5.0 16% 17% -5.4 9% 10% -11.6
13.08.23 Sivasspor vs Samsunspor 1-1 38% 42% -7.6 28% 30% -6.5 33% 36% -7.2
14.08.23 Alanyaspor vs Istanbul Basaksehir FK 2-0 33% 36% -6.8 28% 29% -5.3 39% 42% -7.9
14.08.23 Fatih Karagümrük vs Besiktas 0-1 18% 20% -8.1 24% 24% -3.6 58% 62% -7.0
18.08.23 Antalyaspor vs Konyaspor 1-1 44% 47% -6.4 28% 29% -5.9 29% 31% -7.8
18.08.23 Istanbulspor vs Kayserispor 1-1 38% 39% -4.2 27% 29% -4.4 35% 39% -10.4
19.08.23 Caykur Rizespor vs Alanyaspor 0-0 46% 50% -7.9 27% 28% -4.4 27% 29% -6.9
19.08.23 Galatasaray vs Trabzonspor 2-0 55% 58% -5.5 24% 26% -5.9 21% 24% -12.0
19.08.23 Hatayspor Antakya vs Kasimpasa Istanbul 0-0 38% 42% -7.9 27% 29% -4.4 34% 37% -7.4
20.08.23 Besiktas vs Pendikspor 1-1 74% 78% -5.2 16% 17% -6.4 10% 11% -13.4
20.08.23 Gazisehir Gaziantep FK vs Sivasspor 1-3 36% 38% -5.2 28% 29% -5.2 36% 40% -9.2
20.08.23 Istanbul Basaksehir FK vs Fatih Karagümrük 0-2 52% 55% -4.0 26% 28% -7.8 22% 25% -12.4
21.08.23 Samsunspor vs Fenerbahce 0-2 22% 24% -8.8 26% 27% -5.4 53% 56% -6.7
25.08.23 Konyaspor vs Gazisehir Gaziantep FK 2-0 54% 57% -5.4 25% 27% -6.8 21% 23% -10.1
26.08.23 Kasimpasa Istanbul vs Pendikspor 1-1 46% 48% -4.3 27% 29% -7.3 27% 31% -11.7
26.08.23 Sivasspor vs Antalyaspor 1-1 40% 43% -7.0 29% 31% -6.7 32% 34% -6.4
26.08.23 Trabzonspor vs Caykur Rizespor 2-3 55% 58% -5.4 25% 27% -7.3 20% 22% -9.8
27.08.23 Alanyaspor vs Hatayspor Antakya 0-0 45% 49% -7.6 27% 29% -5.5 28% 30% -7.8
27.08.23 Fatih Karagümrük vs Ankaragücü 1-1 40% 43% -5.6 27% 29% -4.5 33% 36% -8.9
27.08.23 Kayserispor vs Samsunspor 2-1 38% 39% -2.0 28% 30% -7.2 33% 38% -13.0
01.09.23 Caykur Rizespor vs Fatih Karagümrük 1-0 44% 47% -5.8 28% 29% -5.7 28% 31% -7.5
01.09.23 Kasimpasa Istanbul vs Trabzonspor 1-5 32% 34% -7.1 28% 29% -5.4 40% 43% -7.7
02.09.23 Antalyaspor vs Kayserispor 1-1 51% 54% -5.8 26% 28% -5.9 23% 25% -8.1
02.09.23 Gazisehir Gaziantep FK vs Galatasaray 0-3 16% 18% -10.3 22% 23% -3.8 62% 66% -6.6
02.09.23 Istanbul Basaksehir FK vs Konyaspor 0-1 42% 44% -5.5 28% 30% -7.3 30% 33% -10.2
02.09.23 Pendikspor vs Alanyaspor 1-1 37% 38% -4.2 28% 29% -5.3 35% 39% -10.0
03.09.23 Ankaragücü vs Fenerbahce 0-1 20% 22% -9.3 25% 26% -5.5 55% 59% -5.8
03.09.23 Besiktas vs Sivasspor 2-0 69% 73% -5.7 19% 20% -5.4 12% 14% -11.2
16.09.23 Galatasaray vs Samsunspor 4-2 66% 70% -5.4 20% 21% -5.7 14% 16% -12.6
16.09.23 Kayserispor vs Gazisehir Gaziantep FK 2-0 44% 45% -3.5 27% 29% -5.9 29% 33% -12.2
16.09.23 Konyaspor vs Caykur Rizespor 1-2 48% 51% -5.6 27% 29% -6.8 25% 28% -10.1
17.09.23 Alanyaspor vs Kasimpasa Istanbul 3-3 46% 50% -8.6 28% 29% -6.5 27% 29% -6.2
17.09.23 Fenerbahce vs Antalyaspor 3-2 66% 71% -7.7 20% 21% -2.9 14% 15% -6.6
17.09.23 Istanbulspor vs Istanbul Basaksehir FK 0-2 29% 30% -5.3 28% 29% -6.2 44% 49% -10.4
17.09.23 Trabzonspor vs Besiktas 3-0 32% 35% -9.4 27% 29% -4.5 41% 43% -5.8
18.09.23 Fatih Karagümrük vs Hatayspor Antakya 0-0 48% 52% -7.8 27% 29% -5.5 25% 27% -5.3
22.09.23 Gazisehir Gaziantep FK vs Istanbulspor 2-0 50% 55% -9.1 26% 27% -4.1 24% 26% -4.9
23.09.23 Antalyaspor vs Samsunspor 2-0 45% 48% -6.3 27% 29% -5.5 28% 31% -9.1
23.09.23 Caykur Rizespor vs Sivasspor 1-1 44% 48% -7.7 27% 29% -5.1 29% 31% -7.4
23.09.23 Istanbul Basaksehir FK vs Galatasaray 1-2 24% 26% -5.9 26% 28% -4.6 49% 53% -7.7
23.09.23 Pendikspor vs Fatih Karagümrük 1-1 40% 43% -5.9 27% 29% -4.9 33% 36% -9.8
24.09.23 Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahce 0-1 19% 22% -12.2 23% 24% -4.8 58% 61% -5.9
24.09.23 Ankaragücü vs Konyaspor 1-1 40% 43% -6.6 28% 29% -5.3 32% 35% -7.7
24.09.23 Besiktas vs Kayserispor 2-1 70% 74% -5.2 19% 20% -7.4 11% 13% -12.6
24.09.23 Kasimpasa Istanbul vs Adana Demirspor 2-1 32% 36% -9.9 26% 27% -2.3 42% 44% -6.0
25.09.23 Hatayspor Antakya vs Trabzonspor 3-2 27% 30% -9.4 27% 29% -5.5 46% 49% -6.6
26.09.23 Istanbulspor vs Galatasaray 0-1 10% 11% -8.1 17% 17% 0.0 73% 79% -6.8
27.09.23 Adana Demirspor vs Besiktas 4-2 28% 31% -9.7 26% 26% -2.9 46% 50% -7.6
28.09.23 Fenerbahce vs Istanbul Basaksehir FK 4-0 70% 75% -6.5 18% 19% -3.9 11% 12% -8.6
29.09.23 Samsunspor vs Gazisehir Gaziantep FK 1-2 52% 55% -5.4 26% 28% -6.3 22% 24% -8.7
30.09.23 Galatasaray vs Ankaragücü 2-1 77% 81% -5.0 15% 16% -7.0 8% 9% -13.0
30.09.23 Istanbulspor vs Antalyaspor 1-2 27% 29% -8.5 27% 29% -5.7 46% 50% -7.7
30.09.23 Trabzonspor vs Pendikspor 2-1 63% 66% -5.1 22% 23% -6.1 15% 17% -11.1
01.10.23 Adana Demirspor vs Alanyaspor 4-0 54% 58% -7.0 24% 24% -3.1 22% 24% -9.9
01.10.23 Fatih Karagümrük vs Kasimpasa Istanbul 2-3 41% 44% -7.1 27% 29% -4.5 31% 34% -7.3
01.10.23 Fenerbahce vs Caykur Rizespor 5-0 74% 79% -6.0 17% 17% -4.9 9% 11% -10.1
01.10.23 Konyaspor vs Besiktas 0-2 28% 31% -11.3 27% 29% -5.8 45% 48% -4.8
02.10.23 Kayserispor vs Istanbul Basaksehir FK 0-0 37% 39% -5.5 29% 31% -7.2 34% 37% -8.4
06.10.23 Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor 1-0 45% 50% -10.0 26% 26% -2.4 29% 31% -6.2
06.10.23 Alanyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük 2-1 40% 42% -4.8 28% 30% -6.8 32% 35% -10.0
07.10.23 Ankaragücü vs Kayserispor 3-0 44% 48% -7.2 27% 29% -5.2 29% 31% -8.0
07.10.23 Antalyaspor vs Galatasaray 0-2 21% 23% -9.7 25% 26% -4.3 55% 58% -6.1
07.10.23 Istanbul Basaksehir FK vs Gazisehir Gaziantep FK 2-0 47% 50% -5.9 28% 30% -8.3 25% 28% -9.3
08.10.23 Besiktas vs Istanbulspor 2-0 78% 81% -4.5 14% 15% -6.0 8% 9% -13.2
08.10.23 Caykur Rizespor vs Samsunspor 1-0 39% 42% -6.1 28% 30% -6.6 33% 36% -8.8
08.10.23 Hatayspor Antakya vs Konyaspor 3-1 36% 39% -8.0 30% 32% -7.8 34% 36% -4.3
08.10.23 Kasimpasa Istanbul vs Fenerbahce 0-2 14% 16% -9.8 20% 21% -2.7 65% 70% -6.9
21.10.23 Galatasaray vs Besiktas 2-1 55% 60% -8.0 24% 24% -2.5 21% 22% -6.4
21.10.23 Gazisehir Gaziantep FK vs Antalyaspor 1-0 35% 38% -7.6 28% 30% -6.1 37% 39% -6.5
21.10.23 Kayserispor vs Caykur Rizespor 3-1 44% 48% -7.7 28% 29% -6.3 28% 31% -7.5
21.10.23 Konyaspor vs Pendikspor 1-2 52% 56% -5.5 26% 28% -6.8 22% 24% -9.1
22.10.23 Fenerbahce vs Hatayspor Antakya 4-2 80% 83% -4.5 13% 14% -5.8 7% 8% -12.6
22.10.23 Samsunspor vs Istanbul Basaksehir FK 0-0 44% 47% -5.0 28% 30% -7.1 28% 30% -8.7
22.10.23 Sivasspor vs Kasimpasa Istanbul 0-1 48% 52% -8.0 26% 28% -4.8 26% 28% -6.8
23.10.23 Fatih Karagümrük vs Adana Demirspor 2-0 31% 34% -7.7 26% 27% -2.9 42% 47% -8.7
23.10.23 Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor 1-0 56% 60% -5.7 24% 25% -4.7 20% 22% -9.9
27.10.23 Hatayspor Antakya vs Kayserispor 1-2 42% 45% -8.0 28% 29% -5.5 30% 32% -5.9
27.10.23 Kasimpasa Istanbul vs Istanbulspor 3-1 52% 56% -6.7 25% 26% -5.0 23% 26% -9.8
28.10.23 Adana Demirspor vs Konyaspor 3-0 54% 59% -8.6 24% 25% -2.5 22% 23% -5.3
28.10.23 Alanyaspor vs Sivasspor 1-2 44% 47% -6.5 28% 29% -5.9 29% 31% -7.8
28.10.23 Caykur Rizespor vs Galatasaray 0-1 14% 16% -10.8 20% 21% -3.2 65% 69% -5.9
29.10.23 Ankaragücü vs Samsunspor 2-0 38% 41% -7.0 28% 30% -6.7 34% 37% -8.7
29.10.23 Antalyaspor vs Istanbul Basaksehir FK 1-0 46% 49% -5.3 28% 30% -7.3 26% 28% -7.4
29.10.23 Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor 0-0 32% 35% -8.5 28% 29% -5.7 40% 43% -7.1
29.10.23 Pendikspor vs Fenerbahce 0-5 9% 10% -8.0 16% 17% -1.4 74% 80% -7.0
30.10.23 Besiktas vs Gazisehir Gaziantep FK 2-0 64% 66% -3.4 21% 23% -8.6 15% 18% -15.8
03.11.23 Galatasaray vs Kasimpasa Istanbul 2-1 80% 84% -5.4 13% 13% -4.1 8% 9% -15.5
04.11.23 Fenerbahce vs Trabzonspor 2-3 70% 74% -5.5 18% 19% -3.8 12% 13% -9.6
04.11.23 Samsunspor vs Hatayspor Antakya 2-1 46% 48% -3.6 28% 29% -6.5 27% 29% -9.6
05.11.23 Antalyaspor vs Besiktas 3-2 34% 37% -9.5 28% 29% -5.3 39% 41% -5.3
05.11.23 Istanbul Basaksehir FK vs Ankaragücü 3-3 44% 47% -6.2 28% 30% -7.5 28% 31% -9.3
05.11.23 Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük 1-1 47% 51% -6.5 27% 29% -7.1 25% 28% -8.4
06.11.23 Gazisehir Gaziantep FK vs Caykur Rizespor 2-0 43% 45% -4.6 28% 30% -7.0 28% 31% -9.0
06.11.23 Kayserispor vs Alanyaspor 1-0 47% 51% -6.9 27% 29% -6.1 26% 29% -8.6
10.11.23 Ankaragücü vs Antalyaspor 0-4 37% 42% -10.0 29% 31% -7.0 34% 36% -5.1
Showing the 100 most recent of 985 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

18 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Galatasaray 2329.76
2 Besiktas 2319.20
3 Fenerbahce 2265.49
4 Trabzonspor 2252.24
5 Istanbul Basaksehir FK 2131.96
6 Amedspor 2128.51
7 Corum FK 2115.43
8 Caykur Rizespor 2077.10
9 Göztepe Izmir 2068.92
10 Konyaspor 2041.48
11 Alanyaspor 2033.10
12 Erzurum BB Spor 2030.79
13 Kocaelispor 2010.03
14 Samsunspor 2002.91
15 Kasimpasa Istanbul 1998.10
16 Genclerbirligi 1968.33
17 Gazisehir Gaziantep FK 1966.99
18 Eyüpspor 1819.66

Away Ratings

18 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Galatasaray 2239.43
2 Besiktas 2215.80
3 Fenerbahce 2204.20
4 Trabzonspor 2171.03
5 Amedspor 2052.88
6 Istanbul Basaksehir FK 2038.36
7 Corum FK 2034.09
8 Göztepe Izmir 2029.58
9 Caykur Rizespor 2013.40
10 Kasimpasa Istanbul 2011.21
11 Samsunspor 1995.17
12 Alanyaspor 1974.89
13 Konyaspor 1970.96
14 Gazisehir Gaziantep FK 1960.03
15 Erzurum BB Spor 1939.50
16 Genclerbirligi 1931.71
17 Kocaelispor 1921.60
18 Eyüpspor 1778.48