ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 225
Avg Goals 2.27
Avg Home 1.43
Avg Away 0.84
Home Win % 48.4%
Draw % 29.8%
Away Win % 21.8%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
Calculating…
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 225
Avg Brier Score 0.5851
Pick Accuracy 50.7%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.5859
Market Brier 0.5891
Blended Model Beats Market? Yes
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 1
Value Bet Hit Rate 0.0%
ROI (flat stake) -100.0%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • 100.0% of value bets are on 'draw' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 1 of 225 matches had at least one · staked 1.00, profit -1.00 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
draw 1 0.0% 1.00 -1.00 -100.0%
away 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 7.3% 9.1% 11
10–20% 14.9% 12.6% 95
20–30% 25.6% 22.4% 228
30–40% 33.2% 38.9% 162
40–50% 45.2% 38.0% 71
50–60% 54.5% 62.3% 53
60–70% 64.9% 66.7% 45
70–80% 75.3% 77.8% 9
80–90% 83.7% 100.0% 1
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
17.09.23 Gaddafi FC vs Vipers SC 1-2 27% 27% -1.6 32% 34% -8.1 41% 51% -19.4
17.09.23 UPDF FC vs Uganda Revenue Authority FC 0-0 26% 30% -13.4 31% 34% -7.9 43% 50% -13.3
17.09.23 Wakiso Giants FC vs Maroons FC 0-3 43% 47% -7.5 30% 33% -9.6 27% 33% -19.5
21.09.23 Vipers SC vs Arua Hill SC 2-0 67% 72% -7.3 22% 26% -15.7 11% 15% -24.4
22.09.23 Kitara FC vs UPDF FC 1-0 50% 59% -14.6 30% 33% -11.1 20% 23% -13.5
22.09.23 NEC FC vs Busoga United FC 5-0 55% 55% 1.2 27% 33% -17.6 17% 23% -26.1
22.09.23 Uganda Revenue Authority FC vs Gaddafi FC 2-0 61% 65% -6.4 26% 30% -13.4 13% 15% -16.9
23.09.23 Bul FC vs Kampala City Council FC 1-0 36% 38% -7.0 33% 36% -8.5 32% 37% -14.7
23.09.23 Express FC vs Mbarara City FC 0-0 53% 57% -7.3 29% 32% -10.6 18% 21% -15.8
23.09.23 Wakiso Giants FC vs Bright Stars 1-1 44% 44% -1.7 31% 34% -10.9 26% 32% -20.7
24.09.23 Maroons FC vs SC Villa Jogoo 1-1 41% 41% -0.7 31% 35% -10.3 28% 35% -20.2
28.09.23 Bright Stars vs Uganda Revenue Authority FC 1-1 31% 35% -11.1 33% 36% -8.0 36% 40% -11.2
28.09.23 Busoga United FC vs Express FC 0-2 31% 34% -9.5 31% 33% -5.7 37% 43% -13.3
29.09.23 Gaddafi FC vs Kitara FC 1-2 44% 44% 1.3 30% 34% -11.2 25% 33% -22.3
29.09.23 SC Villa Jogoo vs NEC FC 3-0 53% 55% -3.4 29% 33% -14.0 18% 23% -21.6
29.09.23 UPDF FC vs Wakiso Giants FC 0-2 37% 43% -13.7 33% 35% -7.3 31% 33% -7.7
01.10.23 Arua Hill SC vs Bul FC 1-2 34% 40% -14.0 32% 34% -7.1 34% 37% -9.4
03.10.23 Kampala City Council FC vs Maroons FC 1-2 66% 69% -3.6 22% 27% -16.8 11% 15% -25.0
03.10.23 Mbarara City FC vs Vipers SC 0-0 23% 26% -12.9 31% 33% -7.1 46% 52% -10.5
08.10.23 Kampala City Council FC vs Express FC 1-2 61% 62% -1.8 25% 30% -17.9 14% 19% -25.9
10.11.23 Bright Stars vs Busoga United FC 3-2 48% 48% 0.0 32% 38% -15.5 20% 25% -20.8
10.11.23 Kampala City Council FC vs Vipers SC 3-1 31% 29% 6.5 32% 34% -8.2 37% 47% -21.5
10.11.23 Uganda Revenue Authority FC vs Kitara FC 2-2 44% 40% 7.7 31% 36% -14.5 26% 35% -25.7
11.11.23 Gaddafi FC vs Mbarara City FC 2-1 38% 40% -3.1 33% 37% -10.1 29% 34% -16.7
11.11.23 Maroons FC vs NEC FC 0-1 40% 41% -4.3 32% 35% -9.7 28% 34% -17.6
17.11.23 Wakiso Giants FC vs Express FC 0-0 38% 39% -3.3 31% 34% -8.1 31% 38% -18.1
23.11.23 Gaddafi FC vs Bright Stars 2-2 49% 52% -5.4 30% 33% -10.7 21% 26% -18.3
23.11.23 Vipers SC vs Uganda Revenue Authority FC 2-0 53% 52% 1.2 28% 33% -15.8 19% 25% -25.2
24.11.23 Arua Hill SC vs UPDF FC 2-0 39% 41% -4.7 31% 33% -7.5 30% 37% -18.2
24.11.23 Busoga United FC vs Kampala City Council FC 2-1 28% 31% -10.1 30% 32% -4.1 41% 48% -12.9
24.11.23 Express FC vs Maroons FC 0-1 49% 51% -4.7 29% 32% -10.3 22% 28% -20.2
25.11.23 Mbarara City FC vs SC Villa Jogoo 0-0 41% 44% -7.6 32% 35% -8.9 27% 31% -13.5
25.11.23 NEC FC vs Wakiso Giants FC 1-1 53% 56% -6.5 29% 32% -9.9 19% 23% -16.8
26.11.23 Bul FC vs Kitara FC 2-0 52% 52% 1.1 27% 32% -15.2 20% 27% -26.1
30.11.23 Bright Stars vs Arua Hill SC 3-1 45% 47% -4.0 31% 35% -10.8 24% 30% -18.7
30.11.23 SC Villa Jogoo vs Busoga United FC 2-0 58% 62% -7.5 26% 29% -9.9 16% 19% -16.6
01.12.23 Kampala City Council FC vs Gaddafi FC 6-1 66% 69% -5.0 23% 27% -14.7 11% 14% -22.1
01.12.23 Uganda Revenue Authority FC vs Express FC 2-1 56% 58% -4.3 28% 32% -13.0 17% 21% -20.3
01.12.23 Wakiso Giants FC vs Bul FC 0-3 30% 35% -12.7 32% 34% -6.8 37% 42% -10.1
02.12.23 Kitara FC vs NEC FC 1-0 55% 57% -4.5 29% 34% -14.7 16% 20% -18.6
02.12.23 Maroons FC vs Mbarara City FC 1-0 52% 58% -11.0 29% 31% -7.3 19% 22% -10.4
03.12.23 UPDF FC vs Vipers SC 0-1 20% 23% -9.8 28% 29% -3.1 51% 59% -13.3
05.12.23 Arua Hill SC vs Wakiso Giants FC 2-2 33% 33% -2.0 30% 31% -4.5 37% 47% -19.4
05.12.23 Bright Stars vs SC Villa Jogoo 1-1 37% 41% -9.6 31% 33% -5.8 32% 37% -14.2
05.12.23 Express FC vs Bul FC 1-1 33% 37% -11.3 33% 36% -7.8 34% 38% -10.4
06.12.23 Busoga United FC vs Maroons FC 1-1 30% 32% -6.4 31% 33% -5.8 39% 46% -15.3
06.12.23 Mbarara City FC vs Kampala City Council FC 2-1 28% 33% -14.4 31% 33% -6.3 41% 45% -9.6
06.12.23 NEC FC vs Uganda Revenue Authority FC 2-0 39% 45% -14.2 31% 33% -5.6 30% 32% -7.0
07.12.23 Gaddafi FC vs UPDF FC 2-1 41% 45% -8.1 31% 33% -7.4 28% 33% -15.4
07.12.23 Vipers SC vs Kitara FC 2-1 65% 67% -2.6 23% 28% -17.5 12% 16% -25.8
08.12.23 Express FC vs SC Villa Jogoo 1-2 33% 35% -4.4 32% 35% -7.8 35% 42% -17.0
10.12.23 Bul FC vs NEC FC 1-1 51% 55% -7.8 28% 31% -8.1 21% 25% -16.9
10.12.23 Uganda Revenue Authority FC vs Arua Hill SC 4-1 62% 64% -2.5 24% 28% -15.3 14% 19% -25.4
10.12.23 Wakiso Giants FC vs Busoga United FC 3-0 56% 61% -7.0 27% 31% -11.5 16% 20% -18.1
11.12.23 UPDF FC vs Mbarara City FC 1-1 38% 41% -7.2 32% 35% -8.8 30% 35% -15.2
12.12.23 Kampala City Council FC vs Bright Stars 3-0 60% 64% -5.0 23% 26% -11.3 16% 21% -24.1
12.12.23 Kitara FC vs Express FC 1-0 63% 68% -7.5 24% 26% -9.9 13% 16% -18.4
13.12.23 Maroons FC vs Vipers SC 1-1 27% 30% -9.5 33% 36% -8.5 40% 45% -12.2
13.12.23 SC Villa Jogoo vs Gaddafi FC 1-0 57% 61% -5.3 26% 29% -12.0 17% 21% -21.6
20.12.23 Arua Hill SC vs Maroons FC 1-3 21% 21% 0.8 28% 28% 0.5 51% 62% -17.6
20.12.23 Mbarara City FC vs Kitara FC 0-0 27% 28% -4.2 32% 34% -6.2 41% 49% -15.5
21.12.23 Busoga United FC vs Uganda Revenue Authority FC 2-2 26% 29% -11.6 31% 32% -5.1 44% 50% -11.6
21.12.23 NEC FC vs Express FC 2-5 44% 47% -4.8 31% 34% -9.8 25% 30% -17.5
22.12.23 Bright Stars vs UPDF FC 2-1 45% 47% -4.1 30% 33% -9.9 25% 31% -19.7
22.12.23 SC Villa Jogoo vs Kampala City Council FC 1-2 38% 41% -5.7 31% 33% -6.7 31% 37% -17.5
22.12.23 Vipers SC vs Bul FC 2-3 54% 56% -3.0 28% 32% -13.6 18% 24% -22.4
23.12.23 Gaddafi FC vs Wakiso Giants FC 0-1 46% 51% -10.3 29% 30% -4.9 25% 29% -14.4
28.12.23 Bul FC vs Busoga United FC 1-0 80% 86% -7.6 15% 18% -15.3 6% 7% -22.7
28.12.23 Kitara FC vs Arua Hill SC 7-1 84% 89% -6.2 13% 17% -24.7 3% 5% -27.8
28.12.23 UPDF FC vs Kampala City Council FC 1-2 33% 36% -9.1 31% 32% -4.8 36% 43% -14.4
29.12.23 NEC FC vs Bright Stars 0-0 52% 56% -8.1 28% 30% -7.7 20% 24% -16.4
29.12.23 Uganda Revenue Authority FC vs Mbarara City FC 3-0 58% 62% -5.8 25% 28% -10.8 17% 21% -21.5
30.12.23 Express FC vs Vipers SC 2-0 21% 23% -9.0 29% 30% -3.4 50% 58% -13.6
30.12.23 Maroons FC vs Gaddafi FC 5-0 62% 67% -6.4 25% 29% -13.4 12% 15% -18.8
30.12.23 Wakiso Giants FC vs SC Villa Jogoo 0-1 30% 32% -6.5 32% 35% -6.9 38% 44% -14.0
02.01.24 Bright Stars vs Maroons FC 1-0 46% 53% -13.6 29% 31% -4.7 25% 27% -9.8
02.01.24 Busoga United FC vs Kitara FC 2-1 22% 28% -22.5 28% 30% -7.2 51% 53% -4.6
02.01.24 Kampala City Council FC vs Uganda Revenue Authority FC 3-2 55% 61% -8.9 28% 31% -9.5 16% 19% -12.6
02.01.24 Mbarara City FC vs Wakiso Giants FC 2-1 47% 50% -5.7 32% 36% -12.1 21% 25% -15.8
02.01.24 SC Villa Jogoo vs UPDF FC 3-0 64% 69% -6.5 24% 27% -12.8 12% 15% -19.7
03.01.24 Arua Hill SC vs Express FC 0-1 11% 11% 4.7 20% 18% 14.4 68% 83% -17.4
03.01.24 Gaddafi FC vs Bul FC 2-1 16% 17% -8.1 26% 26% -0.7 58% 68% -14.2
03.01.24 Vipers SC vs NEC FC 4-1 63% 65% -4.4 24% 29% -15.1 13% 17% -23.2
05.01.24 Kitara FC vs Bright Stars 3-1 62% 68% -9.1 23% 25% -6.9 15% 18% -18.2
05.01.24 Maroons FC vs UPDF FC 4-2 68% 76% -10.5 21% 22% -4.6 11% 13% -13.6
06.01.24 Bul FC vs Mbarara City FC 1-1 69% 73% -5.3 20% 24% -15.3 11% 14% -25.2
06.01.24 Express FC vs Gaddafi FC 3-0 67% 70% -5.5 19% 21% -9.5 14% 19% -26.1
06.01.24 Wakiso Giants FC vs Kampala City Council FC 2-1 13% 14% -3.9 22% 20% 7.8 65% 78% -16.1
07.01.24 Uganda Revenue Authority FC vs SC Villa Jogoo 0-0 41% 46% -10.1 31% 33% -6.8 28% 32% -12.8
07.01.24 Vipers SC vs Busoga United FC 3-0 79% 85% -6.3 15% 18% -17.9 6% 8% -26.2
01.02.24 SC Villa Jogoo vs Maroons FC 2-1 50% 56% -10.1 27% 27% -3.1 24% 28% -16.5
02.02.24 Gaddafi FC vs Uganda Revenue Authority FC 0-1 36% 43% -16.0 30% 31% -3.2 34% 38% -8.6
02.02.24 Kampala City Council FC vs Bul FC 0-0 46% 48% -4.5 30% 33% -9.9 24% 29% -19.0
02.02.24 Mbarara City FC vs Express FC 3-1 48% 53% -9.4 30% 33% -8.7 21% 24% -12.5
03.02.24 UPDF FC vs Kitara FC 0-3 21% 24% -13.5 29% 30% -4.3 51% 57% -11.1
04.02.24 Bright Stars vs Wakiso Giants FC 1-0 49% 48% 1.2 29% 33% -13.0 23% 30% -24.4
04.02.24 Busoga United FC vs NEC FC 2-3 30% 34% -12.9 31% 33% -5.5 39% 44% -11.2
06.02.24 Uganda Revenue Authority FC vs UPDF FC 1-0 69% 77% -10.4 20% 21% -4.5 11% 13% -15.4
07.02.24 Bul FC vs Bright Stars 2-1 64% 67% -4.4 24% 29% -15.5 12% 16% -22.4
08.02.24 Maroons FC vs Wakiso Giants FC 0-0 67% 70% -5.2 21% 24% -12.3 13% 17% -24.5
Showing the 100 most recent of 225 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

16 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Vipers SC 1912.36
2 Kampala City Council FC 1732.09
3 Kitara FC 1730.22
4 Uganda Revenue Authority FC 1717.39
5 SC Villa Jogoo 1705.05
6 NEC FC 1655.41
7 Mbarara City FC 1625.49
8 Bul FC 1589.38
9 Express FC 1563.53
10 Bright Stars 1535.00
11 Maroons FC 1530.70
12 Uganda Police FC 1496.89
13 UPDF FC 1484.55
14 Mbale Heroes FC 1447.30
15 Lugazi Municipal FC 1431.08
16 Wakiso Giants FC 1387.46

Away Ratings

16 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Vipers SC 1704.32
2 Kampala City Council FC 1670.10
3 SC Villa Jogoo 1660.11
4 Bul FC 1602.49
5 Kitara FC 1586.34
6 NEC FC 1555.24
7 Express FC 1516.80
8 Uganda Revenue Authority FC 1514.15
9 Uganda Police FC 1498.24
10 UPDF FC 1455.03
11 Bright Stars 1447.54
12 Lugazi Municipal FC 1441.21
13 Wakiso Giants FC 1440.26
14 Maroons FC 1439.52
15 Mbarara City FC 1428.88
16 Mbale Heroes FC 1358.02