ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 855
Avg Goals 2.36
Avg Home 1.29
Avg Away 1.07
Home Win % 40.7%
Draw % 26.9%
Away Win % 32.4%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
Calculating…
No rows yet Rows will be created automatically from the league size.
Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 855
Avg Brier Score 0.6145
Pick Accuracy 48.3%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.6153
Market Brier 0.6141
Blended Model Beats Market? No
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 0
Value Bet Hit Rate -
ROI (flat stake) -
ROI Trustworthy? No
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 0 of 855 matches had at least one · staked 0.00, profit 0.00 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
draw 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
away 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 8.2% 0.0% 10
10–20% 15.8% 17.5% 189
20–30% 26.8% 23.9% 1066
30–40% 33.7% 35.0% 685
40–50% 44.0% 46.6% 365
50–60% 54.2% 58.9% 151
60–70% 64.4% 64.2% 81
70–80% 72.7% 87.5% 16
80–90% 80.7% 100.0% 2
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
19.08.23 CA Cerro vs Penarol Montevideo 1-1 18% 19% -5.5 27% 30% -9.7 55% 61% -9.9
19.08.23 CA Fenix vs Defensor Sporting 1-1 30% 33% -9.2 29% 31% -7.7 41% 45% -10.1
19.08.23 Deportivo Maldonado vs Plaza Colonia 0-0 47% 52% -9.8 28% 30% -7.0 25% 27% -7.1
19.08.23 Montevideo Wanderers vs La Luz FC 0-1 40% 44% -9.2 29% 31% -7.4 31% 34% -9.4
19.08.23 River Plate Montevideo vs Cerro Largo 0-0 39% 43% -9.4 30% 33% -9.8 31% 34% -9.9
20.08.23 Boston River vs Racing Montevideo 1-0 44% 49% -9.1 28% 31% -8.1 27% 31% -11.1
20.08.23 Danubio vs Montevideo City 0-1 38% 42% -7.8 30% 33% -9.9 32% 36% -11.7
20.08.23 Liverpool FC Montevideo vs Nacional Montevideo 0-0 34% 38% -11.2 29% 31% -7.0 37% 41% -8.8
25.08.23 Defensor Sporting vs Montevideo Wanderers 3-0 52% 58% -9.8 27% 29% -8.1 21% 22% -7.7
25.08.23 Montevideo City vs CA Fenix 1-1 40% 44% -9.1 29% 32% -8.6 30% 33% -9.6
26.08.23 Cerro Largo vs Nacional Montevideo 2-2 22% 24% -8.4 28% 30% -8.5 50% 56% -9.2
26.08.23 Liverpool FC Montevideo vs Danubio 1-0 51% 57% -10.1 27% 29% -6.6 22% 24% -7.9
27.08.23 CA Cerro vs Boston River 1-2 35% 38% -9.7 30% 33% -9.8 35% 39% -10.3
27.08.23 Penarol Montevideo vs La Luz FC 2-2 62% 67% -7.6 23% 25% -7.6 15% 17% -10.7
27.08.23 Racing Montevideo vs Deportivo Maldonado 1-1 41% 45% -10.7 30% 32% -8.5 30% 32% -7.4
02.09.23 Boston River vs Penarol Montevideo 0-1 20% 21% -5.6 26% 28% -6.4 54% 61% -11.4
02.09.23 Danubio vs Cerro Largo 2-0 45% 51% -10.1 30% 33% -10.1 25% 26% -6.3
02.09.23 Montevideo Wanderers vs Montevideo City 2-1 32% 34% -7.2 29% 31% -7.5 39% 44% -12.1
03.09.23 CA Fenix vs Liverpool FC Montevideo 1-0 28% 31% -9.2 29% 31% -7.4 43% 47% -8.2
03.09.23 La Luz FC vs Defensor Sporting 1-1 26% 29% -8.8 28% 30% -7.5 46% 51% -10.5
03.09.23 Nacional Montevideo vs Plaza Colonia 0-0 68% 75% -9.0 20% 21% -4.4 12% 13% -7.5
03.09.23 River Plate Montevideo vs Racing Montevideo 0-0 41% 44% -8.4 30% 33% -9.6 29% 32% -9.6
04.09.23 Deportivo Maldonado vs CA Cerro 2-1 42% 48% -11.4 29% 32% -8.6 28% 30% -6.5
06.10.23 Racing Montevideo vs Nacional Montevideo 1-2 20% 21% -7.3 27% 29% -8.2 54% 59% -9.0
07.10.23 Cerro Largo vs CA Fenix 1-0 36% 40% -8.9 30% 33% -9.0 33% 36% -8.5
07.10.23 Liverpool FC Montevideo vs Montevideo Wanderers 2-1 54% 59% -8.9 26% 28% -6.8 21% 23% -9.7
07.10.23 Montevideo City vs La Luz FC 1-0 48% 53% -9.2 27% 29% -7.1 25% 28% -10.4
07.10.23 Penarol Montevideo vs Defensor Sporting 2-1 48% 52% -7.8 28% 31% -8.6 24% 27% -10.9
08.10.23 Boston River vs Deportivo Maldonado 2-0 39% 43% -8.6 29% 31% -7.7 32% 36% -11.3
08.10.23 CA Cerro vs River Plate Montevideo 1-0 36% 39% -9.1 31% 34% -9.8 34% 37% -8.9
08.10.23 Plaza Colonia vs Danubio 1-0 27% 30% -9.6 29% 31% -8.3 44% 49% -9.9
13.10.23 Defensor Sporting vs Montevideo City 2-0 48% 53% -9.6 28% 30% -8.2 24% 26% -9.4
14.10.23 Danubio vs Racing Montevideo 0-2 46% 50% -8.0 29% 32% -9.1 25% 27% -8.6
14.10.23 Deportivo Maldonado vs Penarol Montevideo 0-1 22% 24% -9.9 28% 31% -9.3 50% 55% -8.8
14.10.23 La Luz FC vs Liverpool FC Montevideo 0-2 25% 28% -9.7 27% 29% -6.0 48% 53% -10.1
15.10.23 Montevideo Wanderers vs Cerro Largo 1-1 38% 42% -8.4 30% 34% -10.1 31% 35% -10.1
15.10.23 Nacional Montevideo vs CA Cerro 2-1 65% 71% -8.7 22% 24% -6.5 13% 14% -6.2
15.10.23 River Plate Montevideo vs Boston River 2-1 39% 42% -7.8 29% 32% -8.7 32% 36% -11.4
18.10.23 Cerro Largo vs La Luz FC 1-3 41% 45% -10.0 30% 33% -10.2 29% 32% -9.6
18.10.23 Liverpool FC Montevideo vs Defensor Sporting 2-0 40% 44% -9.7 29% 31% -7.4 31% 34% -8.8
18.10.23 Plaza Colonia vs Montevideo Wanderers 1-0 37% 41% -9.1 30% 32% -8.0 33% 36% -8.6
19.10.23 CA Cerro vs Danubio 1-1 29% 32% -8.8 29% 32% -8.6 41% 45% -9.6
19.10.23 Deportivo Maldonado vs River Plate Montevideo 0-0 41% 47% -10.9 30% 32% -8.5 29% 31% -7.1
19.10.23 Montevideo City vs Penarol Montevideo 2-3 21% 23% -5.5 27% 29% -7.3 51% 58% -11.3
19.10.23 Racing Montevideo vs CA Fenix 2-0 40% 44% -9.7 30% 33% -9.4 30% 32% -8.0
20.10.23 Boston River vs Nacional Montevideo 2-0 22% 24% -8.3 26% 28% -5.8 52% 58% -10.0
22.10.23 CA Fenix vs CA Cerro 1-1 41% 45% -8.9 30% 34% -10.2 28% 31% -8.5
22.10.23 Defensor Sporting vs Cerro Largo 2-0 53% 58% -8.9 27% 29% -8.5 20% 22% -8.7
22.10.23 River Plate Montevideo vs Penarol Montevideo 0-3 23% 25% -9.6 28% 30% -8.7 50% 55% -9.5
23.10.23 Montevideo City vs Liverpool FC Montevideo 2-3 27% 29% -6.9 28% 29% -6.1 45% 51% -12.2
24.10.23 Danubio vs Boston River 1-1 42% 45% -7.9 29% 31% -8.5 30% 34% -12.9
24.10.23 Nacional Montevideo vs Deportivo Maldonado 1-3 58% 65% -10.2 25% 26% -6.6 18% 19% -8.1
25.10.23 Montevideo Wanderers vs Racing Montevideo 1-2 35% 38% -8.4 30% 33% -9.4 35% 39% -10.2
03.11.23 CA Cerro vs Montevideo Wanderers 0-1 39% 42% -8.5 31% 34% -10.3 30% 33% -8.7
04.11.23 Boston River vs CA Fenix 1-1 45% 51% -9.9 28% 31% -7.7 26% 29% -8.5
04.11.23 Cerro Largo vs Montevideo City 1-2 35% 38% -8.6 29% 32% -8.7 35% 40% -11.5
05.11.23 Plaza Colonia vs Defensor Sporting 0-2 26% 28% -8.2 28% 31% -7.8 46% 51% -10.1
05.11.23 Racing Montevideo vs La Luz FC 1-1 41% 45% -9.2 29% 32% -9.4 30% 33% -11.5
05.11.23 River Plate Montevideo vs Nacional Montevideo 0-3 23% 23% -0.1 27% 29% -5.5 50% 59% -14.5
06.11.23 Deportivo Maldonado vs Danubio 1-2 38% 42% -10.4 30% 33% -9.6 32% 35% -8.6
06.11.23 Penarol Montevideo vs Liverpool FC Montevideo 0-1 53% 58% -8.9 26% 29% -7.5 21% 23% -9.4
10.11.23 Liverpool FC Montevideo vs Cerro Largo 3-0 60% 67% -10.4 24% 26% -5.5 16% 17% -4.0
10.11.23 Montevideo City vs Plaza Colonia 2-2 48% 51% -7.1 28% 31% -9.8 24% 28% -12.9
11.11.23 Danubio vs River Plate Montevideo 0-0 41% 44% -7.5 29% 32% -8.9 30% 33% -11.5
11.11.23 Defensor Sporting vs Racing Montevideo 3-0 53% 60% -11.6 26% 29% -7.4 20% 22% -6.6
11.11.23 La Luz FC vs CA Cerro 1-2 42% 47% -10.1 29% 32% -8.7 29% 31% -8.2
11.11.23 Nacional Montevideo vs Penarol Montevideo 2-2 40% 44% -10.9 28% 30% -6.5 32% 35% -8.6
12.11.23 CA Fenix vs Deportivo Maldonado 1-0 35% 39% -10.1 30% 33% -9.4 35% 38% -8.5
12.11.23 Montevideo Wanderers vs Boston River 0-2 35% 39% -9.7 30% 32% -8.3 35% 38% -9.0
14.11.23 Plaza Colonia vs Liverpool FC Montevideo 0-0 23% 26% -10.1 27% 29% -7.7 50% 55% -9.3
14.11.23 Racing Montevideo vs Montevideo City 1-0 40% 44% -10.5 29% 31% -7.3 31% 34% -7.8
15.11.23 CA Cerro vs Defensor Sporting 1-1 20% 22% -6.6 29% 32% -10.3 51% 56% -8.6
15.11.23 Deportivo Maldonado vs Montevideo Wanderers 3-0 42% 45% -8.6 29% 32% -8.8 29% 32% -10.0
15.11.23 Penarol Montevideo vs Cerro Largo 1-1 65% 73% -10.3 22% 23% -4.6 13% 13% -3.7
16.11.23 Boston River vs La Luz FC 1-2 43% 47% -8.5 29% 31% -7.4 29% 31% -8.8
16.11.23 Nacional Montevideo vs Danubio 1-3 56% 62% -10.4 25% 27% -5.7 19% 20% -5.7
18.11.23 Cerro Largo vs Plaza Colonia 4-0 40% 43% -8.8 30% 32% -7.9 31% 33% -8.1
18.11.23 Montevideo City vs CA Cerro 1-0 46% 50% -8.0 28% 31% -8.6 26% 29% -12.0
19.11.23 Danubio vs Penarol Montevideo 2-1 24% 26% -8.6 29% 32% -9.6 47% 51% -8.8
19.11.23 Deportivo Maldonado vs La Luz FC 1-0 45% 51% -10.1 28% 29% -6.0 27% 29% -8.4
19.11.23 Liverpool FC Montevideo vs Racing Montevideo 2-3 57% 64% -11.0 25% 26% -4.8 18% 19% -4.1
20.11.23 CA Fenix vs Nacional Montevideo 1-1 24% 27% -10.8 27% 29% -6.5 49% 54% -9.0
20.11.23 Defensor Sporting vs Boston River 2-0 55% 62% -10.3 25% 26% -4.8 20% 21% -7.0
20.11.23 Montevideo Wanderers vs River Plate Montevideo 2-1 36% 38% -5.2 30% 33% -9.6 34% 39% -13.1
24.11.23 Boston River vs Montevideo City 2-0 38% 42% -9.5 29% 31% -7.4 33% 36% -9.6
24.11.23 CA Cerro vs Liverpool FC Montevideo 0-1 26% 29% -12.2 28% 31% -8.6 46% 50% -7.9
25.11.23 Danubio vs CA Fenix 0-0 39% 43% -7.2 30% 34% -10.3 30% 34% -11.2
25.11.23 Deportivo Maldonado vs Defensor Sporting 2-1 28% 31% -9.4 29% 31% -7.5 43% 47% -8.0
25.11.23 Penarol Montevideo vs Plaza Colonia 0-0 69% 76% -8.5 20% 21% -6.0 11% 12% -7.7
25.11.23 Racing Montevideo vs Cerro Largo 1-0 42% 47% -10.6 29% 32% -8.6 29% 31% -7.5
26.11.23 Nacional Montevideo vs Montevideo Wanderers 3-1 61% 68% -10.3 23% 25% -6.1 16% 17% -6.8
28.11.23 CA Fenix vs Penarol Montevideo 0-1 22% 24% -9.4 28% 31% -9.4 51% 56% -9.0
28.11.23 Plaza Colonia vs Racing Montevideo 0-1 33% 36% -8.5 30% 33% -9.0 36% 40% -9.0
29.11.23 Liverpool FC Montevideo vs Boston River 2-0 54% 62% -12.1 24% 25% -2.6 21% 23% -7.4
29.11.23 Montevideo City vs Deportivo Maldonado 5-1 36% 38% -6.6 29% 31% -6.8 35% 39% -10.9
29.11.23 Montevideo Wanderers vs Danubio 3-0 32% 35% -7.3 30% 32% -8.1 38% 43% -10.6
30.11.23 Cerro Largo vs CA Cerro 0-0 41% 45% -9.2 29% 32% -8.7 29% 32% -9.3
30.11.23 Defensor Sporting vs River Plate Montevideo 0-1 61% 67% -8.7 23% 25% -6.4 15% 17% -8.1
01.12.23 La Luz FC vs Nacional Montevideo 0-1 22% 24% -10.4 26% 27% -5.4 53% 58% -9.0
02.12.23 CA Fenix vs Montevideo Wanderers 1-1 40% 43% -7.3 30% 33% -9.8 30% 33% -11.1
Showing the 100 most recent of 855 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

16 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Penarol Montevideo 1827.41
2 Nacional Montevideo 1781.74
3 Montevideo City 1757.54
4 Racing Montevideo 1715.83
5 Juventud Las Piedras 1701.46
6 Deportivo Maldonado 1699.85
7 Liverpool FC Montevideo 1699.36
8 Danubio 1659.91
9 Boston River 1642.42
10 Albion FC 1639.01
11 Defensor Sporting 1633.37
12 Cerro Largo 1616.34
13 CA Cerro 1613.07
14 CA Progreso Montevideo 1609.40
15 Montevideo Wanderers 1599.13
16 Central Español 1570.69

Away Ratings

16 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Nacional Montevideo 1814.00
2 Penarol Montevideo 1804.86
3 Montevideo City 1738.99
4 Liverpool FC Montevideo 1694.74
5 Deportivo Maldonado 1691.00
6 Racing Montevideo 1681.37
7 Boston River 1623.15
8 Juventud Las Piedras 1615.02
9 Defensor Sporting 1609.40
10 Albion FC 1591.15
11 Montevideo Wanderers 1581.90
12 Danubio 1577.10
13 Central Español 1563.10
14 CA Cerro 1543.36
15 Cerro Largo 1542.91
16 CA Progreso Montevideo 1531.47