ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 511
Avg Goals 2.61
Avg Home 1.42
Avg Away 1.19
Home Win % 44.6%
Draw % 21.1%
Away Win % 34.2%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
Calculating…
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 511
Avg Brier Score 0.5996
Pick Accuracy 53.4%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.5999
Market Brier 0.5993
Blended Model Beats Market? No
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 7
Value Bet Hit Rate 28.6%
ROI (flat stake) 53.6%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • The blended model's Brier score does not beat the market's — ROI may reflect leftover model bias rather than genuine skill.
  • 85.7% of value bets are on 'away' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 7 of 511 matches had at least one · staked 7.00, profit 3.75 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 1 0.0% 1.00 -1.00 -100.0%
draw 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
away 6 33.3% 6.00 4.75 79.2%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
10–20% 16.4% 15.8% 120
20–30% 25.7% 22.8% 718
30–40% 34.8% 33.6% 280
40–50% 44.6% 53.1% 241
50–60% 54.4% 54.5% 110
60–70% 64.4% 70.9% 55
70–80% 71.4% 77.8% 9
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
09.10.23 Houston Dash (W) vs Angel City FC (W) 1-2 38% 43% -11.4 29% 33% -14.1 34% 36% -7.5
15.10.23 Angel City FC (W) vs Portland Thorns FC (W) 5-1 36% 43% -16.3 26% 29% -10.3 38% 38% -2.4
15.10.23 Chicago Red Stars (W) vs Seattle Reign (W) 0-3 25% 28% -11.7 26% 29% -11.3 50% 55% -8.9
15.10.23 Gotham FC (W) vs FC Kansas City (W) 2-2 58% 67% -13.5 24% 26% -10.2 19% 18% 2.9
15.10.23 Orlando Pride (W) vs Houston Dash (W) 1-0 49% 61% -18.8 25% 27% -8.2 26% 24% 9.1
15.10.23 San Diego Wave FC (W) vs Racing Louisville FC (W) 2-0 40% 45% -11.3 27% 31% -11.4 32% 34% -6.0
15.10.23 Washington Spirit (W) vs North Carolina Courage (W) 0-1 38% 43% -12.5 27% 30% -10.4 36% 38% -5.9
21.10.23 Seattle Reign (W) vs Angel City FC (W) 1-0 43% 49% -12.7 27% 31% -11.5 30% 31% -3.5
23.10.23 North Carolina Courage (W) vs Gotham FC (W) 0-2 44% 51% -14.4 27% 30% -10.7 29% 30% -1.3
06.11.23 Portland Thorns FC (W) vs Gotham FC (W) 0-0 45% 51% -12.2 27% 30% -11.9 28% 30% -5.3
06.11.23 San Diego Wave FC (W) vs Seattle Reign (W) 0-1 37% 40% -9.8 31% 36% -15.2 33% 34% -3.7
12.11.23 Seattle Reign (W) vs Gotham FC (W) 1-2 39% 45% -12.5 29% 33% -13.5 32% 33% -3.2
16.03.24 Racing Louisville FC (W) vs Orlando Pride (W) 2-2 41% 45% -9.1 28% 33% -13.2 31% 33% -6.7
17.03.24 North Carolina Courage (W) vs Houston Dash (W) 5-1 49% 55% -10.8 26% 30% -12.0 25% 26% -4.8
17.03.24 Seattle Reign (W) vs Washington Spirit (W) 1-0 48% 54% -11.9 27% 31% -12.2 25% 26% -2.3
17.03.24 Utah Royals FC (W) vs Chicago Red Stars (W) 0-2 46% 50% -7.6 26% 30% -12.8 28% 31% -10.9
18.03.24 Angel City FC (W) vs Bay FC (W) 0-1 37% 47% -19.6 25% 28% -9.9 38% 38% -2.4
23.03.24 Chicago Red Stars (W) vs Seattle Reign (W) 2-1 25% 28% -10.0 28% 32% -13.0 47% 51% -8.3
23.03.24 Orlando Pride (W) vs Angel City FC (W) 1-1 39% 47% -16.2 28% 32% -12.2 33% 33% 1.1
23.03.24 Utah Royals FC (W) vs North Carolina Courage (W) 2-1 23% 21% 7.5 26% 29% -10.3 51% 61% -15.9
24.03.24 San Diego Wave FC (W) vs FC Kansas City (W) 1-2 51% 57% -11.2 25% 28% -11.2 25% 27% -7.8
24.03.24 Washington Spirit (W) vs Bay FC (W) 2-1 31% 38% -16.7 27% 30% -11.8 42% 43% -3.0
25.03.24 Portland Thorns FC (W) vs Gotham FC (W) 0-1 40% 44% -8.9 27% 31% -11.8 33% 36% -9.4
30.03.24 FC Kansas City (W) vs Angel City FC (W) 4-2 43% 51% -16.5 27% 30% -10.6 30% 30% 2.0
30.03.24 Orlando Pride (W) vs Chicago Red Stars (W) 1-1 49% 57% -13.6 25% 28% -9.9 26% 26% -2.9
30.03.24 San Diego Wave FC (W) vs Seattle Reign (W) 1-0 39% 44% -12.2 27% 31% -11.5 34% 36% -6.2
31.03.24 Bay FC (W) vs Houston Dash (W) 2-3 50% 55% -9.1 26% 29% -12.3 25% 27% -8.0
31.03.24 North Carolina Courage (W) vs Gotham FC (W) 1-0 41% 46% -10.7 27% 31% -12.1 32% 34% -6.9
31.03.24 Portland Thorns FC (W) vs Racing Louisville FC (W) 2-2 50% 54% -6.9 26% 30% -13.8 24% 27% -11.4
31.03.24 Washington Spirit (W) vs Utah Royals FC (W) 2-1 46% 50% -7.4 27% 31% -13.3 27% 30% -10.8
13.04.24 Houston Dash (W) vs Washington Spirit (W) 1-3 45% 54% -16.0 26% 28% -9.0 29% 29% 1.3
13.04.24 Utah Royals FC (W) vs Orlando Pride (W) 0-1 29% 30% -1.9 28% 31% -11.8 43% 50% -13.7
14.04.24 Chicago Red Stars (W) vs Angel City FC (W) 0-1 35% 41% -14.7 26% 29% -10.2 39% 40% -4.2
14.04.24 North Carolina Courage (W) vs Portland Thorns FC (W) 2-0 43% 49% -12.0 25% 27% -8.6 32% 35% -8.1
14.04.24 Racing Louisville FC (W) vs San Diego Wave FC (W) 0-0 34% 36% -7.0 28% 31% -11.8 39% 43% -11.1
15.04.24 Bay FC (W) vs Seattle Reign (W) 3-2 33% 35% -5.8 28% 31% -11.7 39% 44% -11.5
15.04.24 Gotham FC (W) vs FC Kansas City (W) 1-1 42% 47% -9.6 27% 31% -13.2 31% 34% -10.7
20.04.24 Orlando Pride (W) vs San Diego Wave FC (W) 1-0 39% 45% -12.4 26% 29% -9.1 35% 37% -6.2
20.04.24 Racing Louisville FC (W) vs Utah Royals FC (W) 5-1 60% 67% -9.5 22% 24% -9.5 18% 18% -3.2
20.04.24 Washington Spirit (W) vs Gotham FC (W) 2-0 40% 45% -12.0 26% 28% -8.5 34% 36% -5.9
21.04.24 FC Kansas City (W) vs Bay FC (W) 5-2 41% 45% -9.4 26% 29% -9.7 33% 37% -9.8
21.04.24 Portland Thorns FC (W) vs Houston Dash (W) 4-1 62% 73% -14.6 21% 23% -7.2 16% 15% 7.8
22.04.24 Angel City FC (W) vs North Carolina Courage (W) 2-1 33% 38% -13.1 28% 32% -12.4 39% 41% -5.6
22.04.24 Seattle Reign (W) vs Chicago Red Stars (W) 1-2 64% 74% -12.3 21% 24% -11.3 14% 14% 3.4
27.04.24 Angel City FC (W) vs FC Kansas City (W) 1-3 33% 37% -11.6 27% 31% -12.1 40% 44% -9.5
27.04.24 Washington Spirit (W) vs Orlando Pride (W) 2-3 37% 41% -9.8 28% 32% -12.1 35% 38% -7.7
28.04.24 Chicago Red Stars (W) vs Portland Thorns FC (W) 0-2 28% 32% -13.1 26% 29% -10.2 47% 51% -7.5
28.04.24 Gotham FC (W) vs Racing Louisville FC (W) 1-1 42% 47% -10.5 29% 34% -14.1 29% 30% -4.0
28.04.24 North Carolina Courage (W) vs Seattle Reign (W) 1-0 43% 48% -10.9 29% 33% -13.9 28% 29% -4.0
28.04.24 San Diego Wave FC (W) vs Bay FC (W) 2-1 44% 50% -11.2 26% 29% -10.0 30% 32% -7.3
28.04.24 Utah Royals FC (W) vs Houston Dash (W) 0-0 33% 38% -12.0 28% 32% -12.7 39% 41% -6.5
02.05.24 Bay FC (W) vs Portland Thorns FC (W) 2-3 31% 34% -10.3 26% 29% -9.9 43% 49% -11.2
02.05.24 Chicago Red Stars (W) vs Washington Spirit (W) 2-4 34% 39% -11.6 28% 32% -12.4 38% 41% -7.4
02.05.24 Orlando Pride (W) vs North Carolina Courage (W) 4-1 34% 38% -10.3 29% 33% -13.4 37% 40% -7.0
04.05.24 Seattle Reign (W) vs San Diego Wave FC (W) 2-1 46% 52% -12.0 26% 30% -11.4 28% 29% -5.0
04.05.24 Utah Royals FC (W) vs Angel City FC (W) 1-2 32% 36% -10.5 27% 31% -11.4 41% 44% -8.3
05.05.24 Gotham FC (W) vs North Carolina Courage (W) 1-0 38% 43% -11.2 27% 30% -11.1 35% 38% -7.8
05.05.24 Houston Dash (W) vs FC Kansas City (W) 1-1 27% 30% -9.4 25% 27% -8.0 48% 55% -11.3
05.05.24 Portland Thorns FC (W) vs Washington Spirit (W) 2-1 47% 53% -10.7 25% 28% -10.1 28% 31% -8.9
06.05.24 Bay FC (W) vs Chicago Red Stars (W) 1-2 53% 60% -11.8 22% 24% -6.1 25% 26% -6.8
06.05.24 Orlando Pride (W) vs Racing Louisville FC (W) 1-0 45% 52% -13.2 27% 30% -11.2 28% 29% -1.6
09.05.24 Houston Dash (W) vs Gotham FC (W) 0-1 24% 25% -5.8 27% 31% -12.2 49% 56% -11.0
09.05.24 San Diego Wave FC (W) vs Utah Royals FC (W) 2-0 55% 61% -9.2 24% 28% -13.1 20% 22% -7.8
09.05.24 Seattle Reign (W) vs FC Kansas City (W) 0-0 36% 39% -7.4 27% 30% -10.7 37% 42% -11.6
11.05.24 Racing Louisville FC (W) vs Washington Spirit (W) 1-2 44% 49% -9.8 28% 31% -11.2 28% 29% -2.6
12.05.24 Chicago Red Stars (W) vs Utah Royals FC (W) 3-1 50% 58% -13.9 25% 29% -11.5 25% 26% -3.8
12.05.24 Orlando Pride (W) vs Bay FC (W) 1-0 55% 64% -14.1 23% 25% -7.7 22% 22% -1.1
12.05.24 Portland Thorns FC (W) vs Seattle Reign (W) 4-0 44% 51% -12.3 26% 29% -9.8 30% 32% -5.7
13.05.24 Angel City FC (W) vs Houston Dash (W) 0-1 47% 54% -12.2 25% 26% -6.9 28% 29% -3.2
13.05.24 FC Kansas City (W) vs North Carolina Courage (W) 1-0 51% 58% -11.9 24% 25% -5.7 25% 26% -1.7
13.05.24 San Diego Wave FC (W) vs Gotham FC (W) 1-1 32% 34% -4.2 29% 33% -11.9 39% 43% -9.2
18.05.24 Bay FC (W) vs San Diego Wave FC (W) 2-1 36% 39% -8.3 27% 30% -9.0 37% 39% -6.0
18.05.24 Houston Dash (W) vs Portland Thorns FC (W) 0-2 20% 21% -3.2 25% 28% -10.2 55% 63% -13.1
18.05.24 North Carolina Courage (W) vs Utah Royals FC (W) 1-0 58% 65% -10.8 23% 25% -9.8 19% 20% -4.3
19.05.24 FC Kansas City (W) vs Racing Louisville FC (W) 3-3 51% 58% -13.3 25% 28% -11.3 25% 26% -6.4
19.05.24 Gotham FC (W) vs Chicago Red Stars (W) 2-1 63% 73% -13.1 21% 23% -9.2 16% 15% 1.5
19.05.24 Washington Spirit (W) vs Angel City FC (W) 4-2 49% 56% -12.3 26% 29% -10.8 26% 27% -4.7
20.05.24 Seattle Reign (W) vs Orlando Pride (W) 2-3 32% 34% -7.9 28% 32% -13.0 40% 45% -10.8
24.05.24 Angel City FC (W) vs San Diego Wave FC (W) 0-0 31% 34% -11.1 27% 31% -13.0 42% 47% -11.0
25.05.24 Bay FC (W) vs Gotham FC (W) 0-2 31% 34% -9.4 26% 29% -10.2 43% 48% -10.0
25.05.24 Houston Dash (W) vs North Carolina Courage (W) 3-0 23% 25% -6.6 26% 29% -11.9 51% 58% -13.3
25.05.24 Orlando Pride (W) vs Portland Thorns FC (W) 2-1 50% 58% -15.3 25% 28% -10.9 26% 27% -4.7
25.05.24 Washington Spirit (W) vs Seattle Reign (W) 3-2 48% 55% -13.5 27% 30% -12.9 26% 27% -4.1
26.05.24 Chicago Red Stars (W) vs Racing Louisville FC (W) 0-1 33% 38% -15.1 27% 30% -11.7 41% 43% -5.5
26.05.24 Utah Royals FC (W) vs FC Kansas City (W) 0-1 19% 20% -3.4 23% 24% -6.5 58% 68% -14.0
08.06.24 Gotham FC (W) vs Angel City FC (W) 2-1 57% 66% -13.2 24% 27% -13.0 19% 20% -4.8
08.06.24 Racing Louisville FC (W) vs Houston Dash (W) 2-0 53% 59% -10.7 24% 28% -12.3 23% 25% -8.9
08.06.24 San Diego Wave FC (W) vs Orlando Pride (W) 1-1 38% 44% -14.5 27% 31% -13.0 35% 38% -7.5
09.06.24 Chicago Red Stars (W) vs Bay FC (W) 1-2 39% 47% -15.5 25% 28% -8.8 35% 37% -4.5
09.06.24 Portland Thorns FC (W) vs North Carolina Courage (W) 1-0 45% 52% -13.5 26% 29% -10.7 29% 31% -6.6
09.06.24 Utah Royals FC (W) vs Washington Spirit (W) 0-1 23% 24% -4.5 26% 29% -9.8 51% 58% -11.3
10.06.24 FC Kansas City (W) vs Seattle Reign (W) 5-2 60% 70% -14.6 22% 24% -9.5 18% 18% -0.8
15.06.24 FC Kansas City (W) vs Chicago Red Stars (W) 2-2 73% 85% -14.4 16% 17% -2.2 11% 10% 11.8
15.06.24 Racing Louisville FC (W) vs Gotham FC (W) 0-2 33% 36% -10.5 28% 33% -14.4 39% 44% -11.4
16.06.24 Houston Dash (W) vs Angel City FC (W) 0-0 38% 43% -10.5 27% 31% -12.0 35% 38% -9.5
16.06.24 North Carolina Courage (W) vs Orlando Pride (W) 0-0 36% 42% -13.5 27% 31% -12.2 37% 40% -7.7
16.06.24 Seattle Reign (W) vs Portland Thorns FC (W) 0-0 36% 43% -15.1 27% 30% -12.0 37% 40% -7.0
16.06.24 Washington Spirit (W) vs San Diego Wave FC (W) 1-1 40% 45% -11.2 27% 30% -11.5 33% 36% -8.1
17.06.24 Bay FC (W) vs Utah Royals FC (W) 0-1 66% 77% -14.8 20% 21% -6.9 15% 14% 6.4
20.06.24 Angel City FC (W) vs Racing Louisville FC (W) 3-2 33% 38% -12.9 27% 30% -11.9 40% 44% -9.0
Showing the 100 most recent of 511 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

16 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 FC Kansas City (W) 1445.89
2 Gotham FC (W) 1421.41
3 Washington Spirit (W) 1379.61
4 Denver Summit FC (W) 1371.47
5 North Carolina Courage (W) 1357.49
6 San Diego Wave FC (W) 1344.30
7 Angel City FC (W) 1313.07
8 Portland Thorns FC (W) 1299.75
9 Seattle Reign (W) 1293.92
10 Boston Legacy (W) 1293.78
11 Orlando Pride (W) 1276.90
12 Utah Royals FC (W) 1273.46
13 Bay FC (W) 1250.00
14 Racing Louisville FC (W) 1209.25
15 Houston Dash (W) 1192.72
16 Chicago Red Stars (W) 1006.68

Away Ratings

16 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Gotham FC (W) 1406.97
2 FC Kansas City (W) 1382.28
3 San Diego Wave FC (W) 1353.91
4 Washington Spirit (W) 1342.04
5 Angel City FC (W) 1318.57
6 North Carolina Courage (W) 1292.52
7 Utah Royals FC (W) 1281.16
8 Denver Summit FC (W) 1280.05
9 Portland Thorns FC (W) 1272.21
10 Seattle Reign (W) 1269.87
11 Orlando Pride (W) 1236.37
12 Boston Legacy (W) 1177.74
13 Bay FC (W) 1160.28
14 Racing Louisville FC (W) 1121.01
15 Houston Dash (W) 1077.12
16 Chicago Red Stars (W) 1024.69