ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 1485
Avg Goals 3.07
Avg Home 1.73
Avg Away 1.34
Home Win % 45.7%
Draw % 25.1%
Away Win % 29.2%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
Calculating…
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 1485
Avg Brier Score 0.6095
Pick Accuracy 49.0%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.6107
Market Brier 0.6110
Blended Model Beats Market? Yes
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 2
Value Bet Hit Rate 50.0%
ROI (flat stake) 87.5%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • 100.0% of value bets are on 'away' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 2 of 1485 matches had at least one · staked 2.00, profit 1.75 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
draw 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
away 2 50.0% 2.00 1.75 87.5%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 8.4% 0.0% 11
10–20% 16.7% 14.3% 413
20–30% 25.1% 26.0% 2063
30–40% 34.9% 34.6% 716
40–50% 44.7% 41.4% 609
50–60% 54.5% 55.7% 431
60–70% 63.8% 68.1% 166
70–80% 72.7% 77.8% 45
80–90% 87.3% 100.0% 1
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
21.08.23 Chicago Fire vs Orlando City 1-3 40% 45% -11.0 27% 29% -7.6 32% 33% -2.9
21.08.23 Columbus Crew vs FC Cincinnati 3-0 48% 51% -7.0 25% 26% -4.6 27% 29% -7.6
21.08.23 Houston Dynamo vs Portland Timbers 5-0 54% 53% 1.6 24% 28% -11.9 21% 26% -19.3
21.08.23 New York City FC vs Minnesota United FC 0-2 54% 58% -6.8 24% 26% -5.6 22% 24% -8.1
21.08.23 New York Red Bulls vs D.C. United 1-0 56% 57% -2.8 25% 29% -10.9 19% 22% -12.5
21.08.23 Seattle Sounders vs Atlanta United 0-2 53% 56% -5.1 25% 27% -7.9 22% 24% -10.7
21.08.23 St. Louis City SC vs Austin FC 6-3 51% 53% -4.6 25% 26% -6.6 24% 28% -12.2
21.08.23 Toronto FC vs CF Montreal 2-3 44% 47% -5.7 28% 30% -8.6 28% 31% -7.5
21.08.23 Vancouver Whitecaps vs San Jose Earthquakes 0-1 55% 60% -7.4 23% 24% -3.9 21% 23% -7.0
24.08.23 Los Angeles FC vs Colorado Rapids 4-0 70% 74% -5.7 19% 20% -7.5 12% 13% -12.9
27.08.23 Atlanta United vs Nashville SC 4-0 48% 52% -8.3 26% 28% -6.2 26% 28% -5.0
27.08.23 CF Montreal vs New England Revolution 1-0 47% 54% -12.5 26% 27% -5.0 27% 27% 1.4
27.08.23 Charlotte FC vs Los Angeles FC 2-1 27% 33% -19.5 25% 28% -10.5 48% 47% 3.8
27.08.23 Columbus Crew vs Toronto FC 2-0 71% 74% -3.7 17% 19% -9.1 11% 14% -17.9
27.08.23 D.C. United vs Philadelphia Union 1-3 35% 41% -13.1 27% 29% -7.6 37% 37% 0.9
27.08.23 FC Cincinnati vs New York City FC 3-0 48% 51% -6.0 27% 29% -8.6 25% 27% -7.8
27.08.23 FC Dallas vs Austin FC 1-0 45% 48% -5.3 27% 29% -7.2 28% 31% -9.2
27.08.23 Los Angeles Galaxy vs Chicago Fire 3-0 52% 56% -7.2 24% 26% -4.5 23% 25% -6.4
27.08.23 Minnesota United FC vs Seattle Sounders 1-1 42% 48% -12.7 27% 29% -6.4 32% 31% 1.4
27.08.23 New York Red Bulls vs Inter Miami CF 0-2 50% 54% -6.7 25% 27% -5.8 24% 26% -6.1
27.08.23 Orlando City vs St. Louis City SC 2-1 55% 58% -5.7 24% 26% -6.2 21% 24% -9.9
27.08.23 Portland Timbers vs Vancouver Whitecaps 2-3 39% 43% -8.2 26% 28% -5.5 35% 37% -6.4
27.08.23 Real Salt Lake vs Houston Dynamo 0-3 48% 52% -7.7 26% 28% -6.3 26% 28% -5.8
27.08.23 Sporting Kansas City vs San Jose Earthquakes 3-0 56% 57% -2.0 24% 27% -9.2 20% 23% -14.2
31.08.23 Atlanta United vs FC Cincinnati 1-2 48% 52% -7.8 25% 26% -4.8 27% 29% -7.5
31.08.23 Austin FC vs Seattle Sounders 1-2 44% 53% -17.1 26% 28% -5.7 30% 27% 13.1
31.08.23 Charlotte FC vs Orlando City 1-1 40% 47% -14.8 27% 29% -7.2 34% 33% 1.5
31.08.23 Chicago Fire vs Vancouver Whitecaps 0-1 41% 45% -10.1 26% 28% -5.3 33% 34% -3.1
31.08.23 Houston Dynamo vs Columbus Crew 2-0 49% 54% -10.0 25% 26% -4.4 26% 27% -3.0
31.08.23 Inter Miami CF vs Nashville SC 0-0 62% 67% -7.3 21% 22% -2.2 17% 17% -5.0
31.08.23 Minnesota United FC vs Colorado Rapids 3-0 58% 63% -7.9 23% 24% -4.4 18% 19% -3.4
31.08.23 New England Revolution vs New York Red Bulls 1-0 36% 42% -13.1 28% 30% -8.5 36% 36% 0.9
31.08.23 New York City FC vs CF Montreal 2-0 55% 60% -7.6 25% 27% -6.5 20% 21% -3.8
31.08.23 Portland Timbers vs Real Salt Lake 2-1 47% 54% -13.0 25% 26% -3.9 28% 27% 2.4
31.08.23 San Jose Earthquakes vs Los Angeles Galaxy 2-3 47% 52% -10.0 25% 26% -3.7 28% 29% -1.9
31.08.23 St. Louis City SC vs FC Dallas 2-1 52% 53% -0.2 26% 29% -11.7 22% 26% -16.0
31.08.23 Toronto FC vs Philadelphia Union 3-1 24% 29% -16.7 24% 26% -8.7 51% 52% -0.6
02.09.23 New York City FC vs Vancouver Whitecaps 1-1 46% 49% -6.7 27% 29% -7.2 28% 30% -7.8
03.09.23 CF Montreal vs Columbus Crew 2-4 27% 32% -16.9 25% 28% -9.0 48% 47% 3.0
03.09.23 D.C. United vs Chicago Fire 4-0 50% 53% -6.1 25% 27% -6.2 24% 27% -8.2
03.09.23 FC Cincinnati vs Orlando City 0-1 52% 57% -9.3 25% 26% -5.0 23% 24% -2.8
03.09.23 FC Dallas vs Atlanta United 2-2 39% 43% -10.8 27% 29% -7.5 34% 35% -3.1
03.09.23 Los Angeles Galaxy vs Houston Dynamo 0-0 41% 47% -11.7 27% 29% -6.3 32% 32% -0.3
03.09.23 Nashville SC vs Charlotte FC 1-1 51% 55% -6.5 26% 28% -7.3 23% 25% -7.2
03.09.23 New England Revolution vs Austin FC 2-2 48% 53% -8.9 25% 26% -4.6 27% 29% -5.7
03.09.23 Real Salt Lake vs Colorado Rapids 2-0 56% 62% -9.4 24% 24% -3.2 20% 21% -1.6
03.09.23 San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC 1-1 46% 53% -13.1 25% 27% -4.6 29% 29% 0.9
03.09.23 Seattle Sounders vs Portland Timbers 2-2 52% 56% -7.3 26% 28% -7.4 23% 24% -6.6
03.09.23 Sporting Kansas City vs St. Louis City SC 2-1 55% 58% -5.6 24% 26% -7.4 21% 23% -10.1
04.09.23 Los Angeles FC vs Inter Miami CF 1-3 46% 51% -9.7 25% 26% -3.3 30% 31% -5.2
04.09.23 Philadelphia Union vs New York Red Bulls 4-1 46% 52% -11.0 27% 29% -7.3 27% 26% 1.2
10.09.23 D.C. United vs San Jose Earthquakes 0-0 53% 58% -8.2 24% 26% -5.2 22% 24% -6.2
10.09.23 Inter Miami CF vs Sporting Kansas City 3-2 46% 47% -1.0 27% 29% -8.8 27% 31% -13.1
10.09.23 Minnesota United FC vs New England Revolution 1-1 50% 53% -6.4 25% 26% -5.0 25% 27% -7.6
10.09.23 Portland Timbers vs Los Angeles FC 2-0 31% 35% -12.1 25% 27% -6.0 44% 45% -3.3
11.09.23 Los Angeles Galaxy vs St. Louis City SC 2-2 44% 49% -9.5 26% 28% -5.6 30% 31% -3.7
16.09.23 Atlanta United vs Inter Miami CF 5-2 42% 48% -12.2 25% 27% -4.4 33% 33% -1.9
16.09.23 New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls 0-0 43% 49% -11.5 28% 31% -9.0 28% 28% 2.2
17.09.23 CF Montreal vs Chicago Fire 0-0 46% 51% -8.5 27% 29% -6.4 27% 28% -2.6
17.09.23 Charlotte FC vs D.C. United 0-0 48% 53% -8.1 26% 27% -5.6 26% 28% -6.0
17.09.23 Colorado Rapids vs New England Revolution 2-1 45% 48% -6.0 27% 29% -7.0 29% 31% -8.3
17.09.23 FC Dallas vs Seattle Sounders 1-1 41% 47% -10.9 29% 31% -8.6 30% 29% 2.0
17.09.23 Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis City SC 1-1 57% 61% -5.7 24% 26% -7.0 19% 21% -8.9
17.09.23 Los Angeles FC vs Los Angeles Galaxy 4-2 64% 68% -5.4 20% 21% -4.6 16% 18% -13.3
17.09.23 Minnesota United FC vs Sporting Kansas City 0-1 45% 51% -11.2 26% 28% -5.8 29% 29% -1.5
17.09.23 Orlando City vs Columbus Crew 4-3 37% 43% -14.0 26% 27% -5.0 37% 36% 1.5
17.09.23 Philadelphia Union vs FC Cincinnati 2-2 50% 54% -8.1 25% 27% -6.1 25% 27% -6.5
17.09.23 San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake 2-1 42% 49% -14.4 26% 28% -5.9 32% 31% 2.7
17.09.23 Toronto FC vs Vancouver Whitecaps 1-2 29% 32% -10.8 26% 28% -7.0 45% 48% -4.7
18.09.23 Austin FC vs Portland Timbers 1-2 51% 56% -9.3 25% 26% -4.2 24% 26% -4.5
21.09.23 CF Montreal vs FC Cincinnati 1-1 32% 36% -12.9 27% 29% -8.3 41% 42% -0.8
21.09.23 Charlotte FC vs Philadelphia Union 2-2 37% 42% -12.0 27% 29% -6.4 36% 36% -0.6
21.09.23 Colorado Rapids vs Seattle Sounders 1-2 34% 38% -11.1 28% 31% -9.2 37% 38% -0.8
21.09.23 Columbus Crew vs Chicago Fire 3-0 68% 70% -3.4 19% 20% -7.1 13% 16% -16.3
21.09.23 D.C. United vs Atlanta United 1-1 41% 47% -12.8 26% 27% -4.5 34% 33% 0.9
21.09.23 Houston Dynamo vs Vancouver Whitecaps 4-1 49% 52% -5.5 26% 28% -7.1 25% 28% -9.2
21.09.23 Inter Miami CF vs Toronto FC 4-0 77% 79% -2.6 14% 17% -13.1 8% 11% -22.1
21.09.23 Los Angeles Galaxy vs Minnesota United FC 4-3 42% 48% -12.7 25% 26% -4.2 33% 34% -2.0
21.09.23 New York City FC vs Orlando City 2-0 48% 53% -8.8 26% 28% -6.2 26% 27% -4.0
21.09.23 New York Red Bulls vs Austin FC 1-1 55% 60% -8.3 25% 26% -6.4 20% 21% -4.3
21.09.23 Portland Timbers vs San Jose Earthquakes 2-1 51% 54% -6.2 25% 26% -5.8 24% 27% -9.3
21.09.23 Real Salt Lake vs FC Dallas 1-3 52% 56% -6.6 25% 27% -6.2 23% 25% -7.6
21.09.23 Sporting Kansas City vs Nashville SC 0-3 48% 50% -5.0 27% 29% -8.9 26% 29% -10.1
21.09.23 St. Louis City SC vs Los Angeles FC 0-0 35% 40% -13.6 26% 29% -7.3 39% 39% -0.7
24.09.23 Atlanta United vs CF Montreal 4-1 59% 62% -5.7 23% 24% -6.1 18% 20% -9.2
24.09.23 Chicago Fire vs New England Revolution 2-2 39% 42% -6.5 27% 29% -6.7 34% 38% -8.9
24.09.23 D.C. United vs New York Red Bulls 3-5 38% 43% -12.4 28% 31% -8.6 34% 33% 1.4
24.09.23 FC Cincinnati vs Charlotte FC 3-0 59% 62% -5.1 22% 24% -6.2 18% 21% -11.9
24.09.23 FC Dallas vs Columbus Crew 1-1 36% 42% -12.9 27% 29% -6.7 37% 37% 0.1
24.09.23 Minnesota United FC vs St. Louis City SC 1-2 51% 56% -8.4 25% 26% -5.4 24% 25% -5.4
24.09.23 New York City FC vs Toronto FC 3-0 70% 72% -3.3 19% 21% -10.9 11% 14% -17.4
24.09.23 Philadelphia Union vs Los Angeles FC 0-0 43% 49% -10.9 26% 28% -5.8 30% 31% -2.9
24.09.23 Portland Timbers vs Colorado Rapids 3-2 64% 68% -6.3 21% 22% -5.3 15% 17% -8.9
24.09.23 Real Salt Lake vs Vancouver Whitecaps 2-1 42% 47% -9.4 26% 28% -5.7 32% 33% -5.1
24.09.23 San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC 1-1 40% 45% -11.7 28% 30% -8.3 32% 32% -0.6
24.09.23 Sporting Kansas City vs Houston Dynamo 2-1 44% 47% -5.3 27% 29% -7.6 29% 31% -7.9
25.09.23 Austin FC vs Los Angeles Galaxy 3-3 47% 51% -6.8 25% 26% -4.0 28% 31% -9.4
25.09.23 Orlando City vs Inter Miami CF 1-1 51% 60% -14.1 24% 25% -2.6 24% 23% 6.0
28.09.23 Colorado Rapids vs Vancouver Whitecaps 2-2 33% 38% -13.2 26% 29% -7.2 41% 41% -0.1
28.09.23 Philadelphia Union vs FC Dallas 1-1 58% 62% -6.7 24% 26% -7.5 18% 20% -8.3
Showing the 100 most recent of 1485 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

30 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 2028.12
2 Nashville SC 2014.49
3 Inter Miami CF 2010.69
4 Philadelphia Union 2005.30
5 Los Angeles FC 1958.02
6 Chicago Fire 1947.45
7 Seattle Sounders 1946.96
8 Columbus Crew 1928.69
9 St. Louis City SC 1920.38
10 New York City FC 1909.71
11 Minnesota United FC 1898.28
12 FC Cincinnati 1897.08
13 Colorado Rapids 1891.99
14 Portland Timbers 1890.69
15 Orlando City 1888.25
16 Real Salt Lake 1887.44
17 FC Dallas 1886.52
18 San Diego FC 1875.14
19 Los Angeles Galaxy 1869.77
20 Charlotte FC 1863.59
21 New England Revolution 1860.84
22 Houston Dynamo 1853.71
23 New York Red Bulls 1823.48
24 Toronto FC 1807.40
25 San Jose Earthquakes 1803.07
26 Atlanta United 1793.79
27 D.C. United 1771.80
28 Austin FC 1729.65
29 Sporting Kansas City 1722.41
30 CF Montreal 1713.62

Away Ratings

30 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Nashville SC 1971.06
2 Vancouver Whitecaps 1962.75
3 Inter Miami CF 1889.86
4 Philadelphia Union 1882.59
5 Los Angeles FC 1861.65
6 Seattle Sounders 1848.48
7 Chicago Fire 1847.03
8 FC Dallas 1842.83
9 Columbus Crew 1837.55
10 FC Cincinnati 1823.29
11 St. Louis City SC 1821.29
12 New York City FC 1817.81
13 Portland Timbers 1817.50
14 San Diego FC 1804.86
15 Minnesota United FC 1796.77
16 New York Red Bulls 1795.70
17 New England Revolution 1784.16
18 Real Salt Lake 1771.39
19 San Jose Earthquakes 1768.34
20 Los Angeles Galaxy 1764.43
21 Charlotte FC 1763.98
22 Orlando City 1763.82
23 Colorado Rapids 1754.83
24 Houston Dynamo 1753.45
25 Toronto FC 1747.90
26 Atlanta United 1718.31
27 Sporting Kansas City 1665.48
28 CF Montreal 1652.27
29 Austin FC 1652.15
30 D.C. United 1644.07