ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 428
Avg Goals 2.82
Avg Home 1.66
Avg Away 1.17
Home Win % 48.6%
Draw % 26.4%
Away Win % 25.0%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
Calculating…
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 428
Avg Brier Score 0.6057
Pick Accuracy 50.0%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.6189
Market Brier 0.6073
Blended Model Beats Market? Yes
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 4
Value Bet Hit Rate 0.0%
ROI (flat stake) -100.0%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • 100.0% of value bets are on 'home' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 4 of 428 matches had at least one · staked 4.00, profit -4.00 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 4 0.0% 4.00 -4.00 -100.0%
draw 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
away 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 8.1% 0.0% 5
10–20% 16.8% 18.1% 138
20–30% 25.5% 24.3% 596
30–40% 35.1% 36.8% 185
40–50% 45.1% 42.3% 168
50–60% 54.9% 58.9% 129
60–70% 63.6% 71.2% 52
70–80% 73.5% 54.5% 11
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
28.07.24 Forward Madison FC vs Northern Colorado Hailstorm FC 0-1 38% 41% -7.0 28% 32% -12.9 34% 39% -13.4
28.07.24 Greenville Triumph SC vs One Knoxville SC 0-0 52% 52% -0.1 26% 31% -15.7 22% 29% -25.6
28.07.24 Lexington SC vs Richmond Kickers 2-1 42% 41% 2.9 27% 31% -12.8 31% 41% -23.6
28.07.24 Spokane Velocity FC vs Charlotte Independence 2-4 46% 47% -1.6 26% 29% -11.7 28% 36% -22.2
28.07.24 Union Omaha vs Chattanooga Red Wolves SC 0-1 71% 73% -3.2 18% 22% -17.5 11% 17% -31.7
04.08.24 Charlotte Independence vs Lexington SC 3-3 55% 55% -0.4 23% 27% -13.5 22% 30% -27.7
04.08.24 Chattanooga Red Wolves SC vs Central Valley Fuego FC 1-2 56% 59% -5.2 22% 24% -9.2 22% 29% -24.9
04.08.24 Northern Colorado Hailstorm FC vs Richmond Kickers 3-1 64% 65% -1.2 21% 26% -18.0 15% 22% -31.4
04.08.24 Tormenta FC vs Spokane Velocity FC 3-3 53% 57% -6.5 24% 27% -10.0 22% 28% -19.9
04.08.24 Union Omaha vs Forward Madison FC 2-2 52% 52% 1.3 25% 29% -14.8 22% 31% -27.0
08.08.24 Chattanooga Red Wolves SC vs Spokane Velocity FC 0-1 37% 40% -6.4 25% 27% -7.6 38% 45% -16.6
15.08.24 Forward Madison FC vs Charlotte Independence 0-0 54% 56% -2.4 25% 29% -13.3 21% 28% -24.4
17.08.24 Greenville Triumph SC vs Richmond Kickers 1-1 60% 61% -1.7 23% 27% -15.9 17% 24% -28.6
17.08.24 One Knoxville SC vs Chattanooga Red Wolves SC 4-1 59% 60% -2.1 23% 27% -14.9 18% 26% -28.4
24.08.24 One Knoxville SC vs Spokane Velocity FC 1-1 52% 53% -2.4 26% 30% -15.0 22% 29% -25.0
25.08.24 Charlotte Independence vs Central Valley Fuego FC 4-0 59% 60% -1.4 23% 27% -14.4 18% 26% -27.9
25.08.24 Lexington SC vs Forward Madison FC 0-0 33% 36% -7.3 27% 31% -12.5 40% 45% -13.0
25.08.24 Union Omaha vs Richmond Kickers 3-0 64% 63% 0.6 21% 27% -20.1 15% 22% -32.4
26.08.24 Northern Colorado Hailstorm FC vs Greenville Triumph SC 3-0 58% 60% -2.5 24% 29% -15.7 18% 24% -26.7
05.09.24 Spokane Velocity FC vs Union Omaha 2-1 34% 37% -8.0 26% 29% -9.9 40% 47% -13.6
07.09.24 One Knoxville SC vs Charlotte Independence 1-1 51% 52% -1.9 25% 29% -13.3 24% 31% -24.2
08.09.24 Chattanooga Red Wolves SC vs Forward Madison FC 1-3 25% 29% -13.2 24% 28% -12.6 51% 56% -8.3
08.09.24 Spokane Velocity FC vs Central Valley Fuego FC 3-2 51% 51% 0.1 25% 28% -11.7 25% 33% -25.2
08.09.24 Union Omaha vs Greenville Triumph SC 3-1 56% 58% -2.9 24% 28% -13.7 20% 26% -25.6
14.09.24 Lexington SC vs One Knoxville SC 0-1 32% 34% -6.2 27% 30% -12.1 42% 49% -14.8
15.09.24 Charlotte Independence vs Richmond Kickers 0-1 57% 57% 0.1 23% 27% -14.9 20% 28% -28.8
15.09.24 Chattanooga Red Wolves SC vs Greenville Triumph SC 2-5 29% 32% -10.3 26% 30% -13.0 45% 50% -10.6
15.09.24 Northern Colorado Hailstorm FC vs Union Omaha 2-3 53% 54% -1.2 25% 29% -13.6 22% 29% -25.5
15.09.24 Spokane Velocity FC vs Tormenta FC 0-0 42% 43% -2.7 26% 29% -10.5 32% 41% -21.4
22.09.24 Forward Madison FC vs Spokane Velocity FC 2-0 60% 60% -1.1 23% 28% -16.7 17% 24% -29.1
22.09.24 Greenville Triumph SC vs Central Valley Fuego FC 2-2 67% 69% -4.0 20% 23% -14.3 14% 19% -28.8
22.09.24 Northern Colorado Hailstorm FC vs Chattanooga Red Wolves SC 0-0 79% 83% -4.7 14% 17% -17.5 8% 11% -32.5
22.09.24 Richmond Kickers vs Lexington SC 3-0 47% 49% -2.8 25% 29% -11.1 27% 35% -22.1
22.09.24 Tormenta FC vs Charlotte Independence 3-3 48% 51% -4.3 25% 29% -11.1 26% 33% -21.2
22.09.24 Union Omaha vs One Knoxville SC 1-0 55% 56% -1.4 27% 32% -17.5 19% 25% -25.6
02.10.24 One Knoxville SC vs Forward Madison FC 1-1 45% 45% -1.8 27% 30% -12.1 29% 36% -21.0
02.10.24 Union Omaha vs Spokane Velocity FC 4-0 64% 66% -2.7 20% 24% -16.1 15% 22% -30.4
05.10.24 Charlotte Independence vs Forward Madison FC 2-4 32% 31% 1.4 27% 31% -11.6 41% 50% -17.8
05.10.24 Greenville Triumph SC vs Lexington SC 2-1 58% 60% -3.1 23% 27% -14.0 18% 25% -26.5
06.10.24 Chattanooga Red Wolves SC vs One Knoxville SC 1-1 21% 23% -10.5 24% 27% -13.0 56% 62% -9.6
06.10.24 Richmond Kickers vs Union Omaha 0-0 32% 36% -9.9 26% 29% -11.6 42% 48% -12.2
10.10.24 Central Valley Fuego FC vs Spokane Velocity FC 1-0 40% 41% -2.5 26% 29% -10.2 35% 43% -20.5
12.10.24 Tormenta FC vs Richmond Kickers 2-2 55% 56% -1.8 25% 29% -13.7 21% 28% -25.1
12.10.24 Union Omaha vs Lexington SC 2-1 66% 68% -3.8 20% 24% -14.3 14% 19% -28.1
13.10.24 Charlotte Independence vs Northern Colorado Hailstorm FC 1-2 25% 27% -4.5 25% 28% -10.3 50% 57% -13.2
13.10.24 Forward Madison FC vs Chattanooga Red Wolves SC 2-1 73% 75% -2.2 17% 21% -19.3 10% 15% -32.4
13.10.24 Spokane Velocity FC vs Greenville Triumph SC 2-3 33% 34% -2.9 27% 30% -11.7 40% 49% -17.3
16.10.24 One Knoxville SC vs Central Valley Fuego FC 2-1 60% 60% 0.6 23% 28% -18.0 17% 25% -30.7
20.10.24 Forward Madison FC vs One Knoxville SC 0-0 53% 52% 1.4 27% 32% -17.4 21% 29% -27.1
20.10.24 Lexington SC vs Charlotte Independence 2-2 47% 49% -4.0 25% 29% -11.3 28% 36% -22.1
20.10.24 Northern Colorado Hailstorm FC vs Spokane Velocity FC 1-0 69% 70% -1.9 19% 24% -19.7 12% 18% -32.5
20.10.24 Richmond Kickers vs Chattanooga Red Wolves SC 2-1 59% 60% -1.4 23% 27% -14.9 18% 25% -28.2
20.10.24 Tormenta FC vs Union Omaha 2-3 34% 36% -6.5 26% 29% -10.1 40% 48% -15.4
21.10.24 Central Valley Fuego FC vs Greenville Triumph SC 1-0 32% 34% -6.0 26% 29% -9.8 42% 49% -14.2
26.10.24 Union Omaha vs Central Valley Fuego FC 3-1 71% 75% -4.2 18% 21% -16.0 11% 16% -31.0
27.10.24 Chattanooga Red Wolves SC vs Lexington SC 0-3 38% 42% -8.9 26% 29% -10.0 36% 43% -14.6
27.10.24 Greenville Triumph SC vs Tormenta FC 5-1 62% 65% -5.5 21% 24% -12.0 17% 23% -26.1
27.10.24 Northern Colorado Hailstorm FC vs Forward Madison FC 1-0 50% 50% 0.1 26% 31% -15.2 24% 32% -26.1
27.10.24 Richmond Kickers vs Charlotte Independence 0-1 48% 49% -2.5 25% 29% -10.9 27% 34% -21.8
27.10.24 Spokane Velocity FC vs One Knoxville SC 0-0 34% 35% -1.2 28% 32% -13.0 38% 45% -17.5
02.11.24 Greenville Triumph SC vs One Knoxville SC 2-1 48% 48% -0.2 28% 33% -15.4 24% 31% -22.3
03.11.24 Forward Madison FC vs Charlotte Independence 2-0 65% 66% -1.6 22% 27% -18.1 13% 19% -29.6
03.11.24 Northern Colorado Hailstorm FC vs Spokane Velocity FC 0-3 70% 72% -2.6 19% 24% -20.0 11% 16% -32.1
03.11.24 Union Omaha vs Richmond Kickers 1-0 61% 62% -1.7 22% 26% -15.8 16% 23% -29.0
09.11.24 Union Omaha vs Greenville Triumph SC 2-1 55% 57% -3.2 25% 29% -13.6 20% 26% -24.1
10.11.24 Forward Madison FC vs Spokane Velocity FC 0-0 58% 57% 2.2 24% 30% -19.8 17% 25% -30.9
17.11.24 Union Omaha vs Spokane Velocity FC 3-0 59% 58% 0.9 23% 28% -17.1 18% 26% -30.0
08.03.25 Greenville Triumph SC vs Westchester SC 1-1 45% 48% -4.6 28% 32% -14.1 27% 33% -19.4
08.03.25 Tormenta FC vs Richmond Kickers 2-4 47% 49% -2.9 26% 30% -13.1 26% 34% -22.4
09.03.25 FC Naples vs Chattanooga Red Wolves SC 1-1 44% 38% 15.6 26% 32% -17.9 29% 42% -31.1
13.03.25 Greenville Triumph SC vs Union Omaha 3-0 34% 34% -0.9 28% 32% -13.1 38% 47% -17.5
16.03.25 Charlotte Independence vs Richmond Kickers 1-0 48% 50% -3.2 26% 30% -13.0 25% 32% -21.8
16.03.25 FC Naples vs Forward Madison FC 2-0 34% 32% 5.8 28% 32% -13.5 38% 49% -22.1
16.03.25 Tormenta FC vs AV Alta FC 2-0 47% 51% -8.9 26% 29% -9.8 28% 32% -14.8
17.03.25 Spokane Velocity FC vs One Knoxville SC 2-2 43% 43% -0.1 29% 34% -14.7 29% 36% -20.1
22.03.25 Richmond Kickers vs AV Alta FC 3-1 47% 52% -8.8 26% 29% -10.9 27% 31% -15.1
23.03.25 Spokane Velocity FC vs FC Naples 0-1 46% 43% 6.3 26% 31% -15.2 28% 38% -28.0
23.03.25 Texoma FC vs One Knoxville SC 0-2 28% 24% 16.1 23% 24% -4.6 49% 64% -22.9
29.03.25 Charlotte Independence vs Chattanooga Red Wolves SC 0-0 63% 65% -3.9 21% 25% -14.2 16% 22% -27.8
29.03.25 Richmond Kickers vs Forward Madison FC 1-2 37% 38% -4.7 29% 33% -13.4 34% 40% -13.8
30.03.25 Texoma FC vs Westchester SC 1-3 36% 35% 3.3 27% 30% -11.8 37% 48% -22.2
30.03.25 Tormenta FC vs Union Omaha 1-3 38% 42% -8.6 26% 29% -10.8 36% 42% -14.4
06.04.25 AV Alta FC vs Westchester SC 2-0 28% 34% -16.8 25% 29% -13.4 47% 50% -5.9
06.04.25 Chattanooga Red Wolves SC vs Tormenta FC 2-2 31% 32% -5.0 27% 31% -12.6 42% 49% -13.8
06.04.25 Greenville Triumph SC vs Charlotte Independence 1-0 53% 55% -3.4 25% 29% -12.6 22% 29% -23.1
06.04.25 Spokane Velocity FC vs Portland Hearts of Pine 0-0 59% 60% -2.8 24% 28% -14.4 18% 24% -25.7
06.04.25 Texoma FC vs FC Naples 0-3 32% 28% 15.3 27% 30% -11.4 41% 54% -23.9
10.04.25 Greenville Triumph SC vs One Knoxville SC 0-1 44% 44% -0.2 27% 31% -12.8 29% 37% -22.2
10.04.25 Richmond Kickers vs Union Omaha 1-0 32% 34% -6.5 26% 29% -9.9 42% 49% -13.8
12.04.25 Charlotte Independence vs Forward Madison FC 1-1 35% 36% -4.8 28% 31% -12.0 38% 44% -14.7
13.04.25 AV Alta FC vs Chattanooga Red Wolves SC 3-2 61% 62% -1.6 23% 28% -16.4 16% 22% -27.9
13.04.25 FC Naples vs Richmond Kickers 2-1 52% 51% 2.0 26% 31% -15.7 23% 31% -26.8
13.04.25 Tormenta FC vs Portland Hearts of Pine 2-1 56% 59% -5.1 25% 29% -13.2 19% 25% -22.4
14.04.25 Spokane Velocity FC vs Texoma FC 4-1 77% 81% -5.0 16% 20% -18.6 7% 10% -30.8
20.04.25 AV Alta FC vs Spokane Velocity FC 1-2 36% 36% 0.9 27% 31% -12.2 37% 45% -19.7
20.04.25 Charlotte Independence vs Tormenta FC 3-2 46% 49% -6.1 26% 29% -11.2 28% 34% -18.6
20.04.25 Chattanooga Red Wolves SC vs Greenville Triumph SC 1-0 19% 21% -7.6 23% 27% -12.7 57% 65% -10.9
20.04.25 FC Naples vs One Knoxville SC 0-1 46% 47% -0.8 28% 33% -15.6 26% 33% -22.8
20.04.25 Forward Madison FC vs Texoma FC 1-1 75% 78% -4.2 16% 20% -18.1 9% 13% -31.7
20.04.25 Richmond Kickers vs Westchester SC 4-4 37% 43% -14.7 27% 31% -12.9 36% 38% -5.4
Showing the 100 most recent of 428 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

17 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Union Omaha 1639.75
2 Forward Madison FC 1611.88
3 AC Boise 1602.55
4 Charlotte Independence 1586.05
5 One Knoxville SC 1583.91
6 Spokane Velocity FC 1552.90
7 Fort Wayne FC 1552.86
8 Chattanooga Red Wolves SC 1532.23
9 FC Naples 1530.94
10 Sarasota Paradise 1510.61
11 Greenville Triumph SC 1504.26
12 AV Alta FC 1494.24
13 Corpus Christi FC 1483.33
14 Westchester SC 1469.52
15 New York Cosmos 1449.82
16 Richmond Kickers 1430.13
17 Portland Hearts of Pine 1415.71

Away Ratings

17 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Union Omaha 1559.37
2 AC Boise 1552.86
3 Charlotte Independence 1531.09
4 One Knoxville SC 1523.75
5 Fort Wayne FC 1493.66
6 Spokane Velocity FC 1482.43
7 Forward Madison FC 1455.63
8 Chattanooga Red Wolves SC 1454.11
9 Sarasota Paradise 1435.85
10 Greenville Triumph SC 1433.78
11 FC Naples 1415.82
12 New York Cosmos 1398.33
13 Corpus Christi FC 1388.51
14 Portland Hearts of Pine 1386.83
15 Westchester SC 1383.31
16 AV Alta FC 1364.86
17 Richmond Kickers 1311.21