ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 22
Avg Goals 3.14
Avg Home 1.77
Avg Away 1.36
Home Win % 45.5%
Draw % 18.2%
Away Win % 36.4%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 22
Avg Brier Score 0.4054
Pick Accuracy 72.7%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.4476
Market Brier 0.3914
Blended Model Beats Market? No
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 4
Value Bet Hit Rate 0.0%
ROI (flat stake) -100.0%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • The blended model's Brier score does not beat the market's — ROI may reflect leftover model bias rather than genuine skill.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 2 of 22 matches had at least one · staked 4.00, profit -4.00 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 1 0.0% 1.00 -1.00 -100.0%
draw 2 0.0% 2.00 -2.00 -100.0%
away 1 0.0% 1.00 -1.00 -100.0%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 6.8% 0.0% 4
10–20% 16.3% 0.0% 11
20–30% 25.0% 13.6% 22
30–40% 34.3% 40.0% 10
40–50% 43.0% 40.0% 5
50–60% 54.1% 85.7% 7
60–70% 63.7% 100.0% 3
70–80% 74.8% 100.0% 2
80–90% 82.7% 100.0% 2
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
08.08.24 Los Angeles Force vs Arizona Monsoon FC 3-0 84% 94% -11.3 11% 9% 24.3 5% 4% 16.1
15.08.24 Capo FC vs Los Angeles Force 1-2 20% 20% -2.4 24% 25% -3.0 56% 67% -16.2
17.08.24 Savannah Clovers FC vs Maryland Bobcats FC 1-2 23% 25% -9.4 26% 28% -6.2 51% 59% -12.8
19.08.24 Irvine Zeta FC vs Los Angeles Force 0-1 39% 43% -7.8 28% 31% -8.9 32% 38% -16.0
21.08.24 Georgia Lions FC vs Club de Lyon FC 3-3 42% 47% -10.7 27% 29% -6.1 32% 37% -14.6
22.08.24 Maryland Bobcats FC vs Michigan Stars FC 2-2 54% 64% -14.4 26% 28% -6.8 20% 21% -5.7
25.08.24 Club de Lyon FC vs Savannah Clovers FC 1-0 48% 56% -14.1 25% 26% -4.2 27% 30% -12.4
29.08.24 Capo FC vs Irvine Zeta FC 0-1 18% 17% 6.1 22% 21% 4.2 60% 74% -17.9
04.09.24 Georgia Lions FC vs Club de Lyon FC 4-1 39% 43% -10.7 26% 27% -4.3 35% 42% -16.3
05.09.24 Savannah Clovers FC vs Michigan Stars FC 2-2 32% 37% -13.2 27% 29% -6.7 40% 45% -11.1
07.09.24 Georgia Lions FC vs Maryland Bobcats FC 0-3 17% 18% -5.7 22% 22% -0.4 61% 70% -13.8
08.09.24 Capo FC vs Los Angeles Force 0-5 18% 17% 1.4 23% 23% -0.2 59% 71% -16.4
09.09.24 Arizona Monsoon FC vs Irvine Zeta FC 0-3 9% 8% 16.2 17% 15% 10.2 74% 86% -14.0
14.09.24 Savannah Clovers FC vs Georgia Lions FC 4-0 41% 45% -9.2 26% 28% -5.0 32% 38% -15.9
15.09.24 Maryland Bobcats FC vs Michigan Stars FC 3-1 54% 62% -13.7 25% 27% -5.3 21% 23% -8.5
16.09.24 Irvine Zeta FC vs Los Angeles Force 0-2 39% 41% -5.5 29% 32% -10.6 33% 40% -18.6
21.09.24 Michigan Stars FC vs Savannah Clovers FC 3-0 52% 58% -9.3 25% 26% -6.5 23% 28% -17.3
22.09.24 Los Angeles Force vs Capo FC 2-1 75% 85% -11.0 18% 18% -3.2 7% 7% 4.7
22.09.24 Maryland Bobcats FC vs Club de Lyon FC 3-0 70% 80% -12.6 19% 19% -0.0 11% 11% -3.7
23.09.24 Irvine Zeta FC vs Arizona Monsoon FC 3-0 82% 91% -10.2 12% 11% 6.8 6% 7% -8.1
13.10.24 Irvine Zeta FC vs Michigan Stars FC 3-0 51% 55% -6.5 26% 29% -11.2 23% 29% -20.2
20.10.24 Los Angeles Force vs Irvine Zeta FC 1-1 43% 48% -8.8 30% 34% -12.5 26% 31% -14.1

Home Ratings

9 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Los Angeles Force 1706.75
2 Maryland Bobcats FC 1616.89
3 Irvine Zeta FC 1560.65
4 Michigan Stars FC 1429.28
5 Club de Lyon FC 1319.87
6 Capo FC 1317.47
7 Savannah Clovers FC 1315.64
8 Georgia Lions FC 1255.73
9 Arizona Monsoon FC 1230.26

Away Ratings

9 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Irvine Zeta FC 1630.88
2 Los Angeles Force 1559.92
3 Maryland Bobcats FC 1490.95
4 Michigan Stars FC 1448.01
5 Savannah Clovers FC 1301.97
6 Georgia Lions FC 1286.62
7 Club de Lyon FC 1278.85
8 Capo FC 1245.89
9 Arizona Monsoon FC 1100.21