ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 575
Avg Goals 2.38
Avg Home 1.34
Avg Away 1.04
Home Win % 43.0%
Draw % 30.8%
Away Win % 26.3%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
Calculating…
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 575
Avg Brier Score 0.6042
Pick Accuracy 48.0%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.6068
Market Brier 0.6055
Blended Model Beats Market? Yes
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 1
Value Bet Hit Rate 0.0%
ROI (flat stake) -100.0%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • 100.0% of value bets are on 'draw' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 1 of 575 matches had at least one · staked 1.00, profit -1.00 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
draw 1 0.0% 1.00 -1.00 -100.0%
away 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 8.9% 0.0% 17
10–20% 16.3% 10.8% 139
20–30% 26.4% 21.5% 562
30–40% 33.0% 35.9% 599
40–50% 44.6% 46.4% 239
50–60% 54.1% 62.1% 116
60–70% 64.9% 75.0% 40
70–80% 72.1% 84.6% 13
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
05.08.23 Estudiantes de Merida vs Caracas FC 0-2 35% 42% -15.5 30% 32% -6.3 35% 38% -10.2
05.08.23 Zamora Barinas vs Deportivo Tachira 0-1 29% 34% -16.4 30% 33% -8.7 41% 44% -8.3
06.08.23 Carabobo Valencia vs Metropolitanos 2-2 55% 62% -11.8 28% 29% -5.6 17% 20% -14.3
06.08.23 Deportivo La Guaira vs Mineros de Guayana 1-1 58% 65% -9.7 25% 26% -3.8 17% 22% -21.5
06.08.23 Portuguesa FC vs Monagas SC 1-2 40% 45% -11.6 30% 32% -6.2 30% 35% -15.7
07.08.23 Academia Puerto Cabello vs Angostura FC 2-0 71% 78% -9.4 20% 22% -6.0 9% 11% -21.2
07.08.23 UCV FC vs Inter de Barinas 2-1 42% 49% -13.1 30% 32% -6.0 27% 31% -12.8
11.08.23 Angostura FC vs UCV FC 1-1 34% 38% -10.5 30% 32% -5.8 36% 42% -15.0
12.08.23 Deportivo La Guaira vs Academia Puerto Cabello 2-1 30% 35% -15.8 31% 33% -8.1 40% 43% -8.4
12.08.23 Deportivo Rayo Zuliano vs Metropolitanos 1-1 40% 45% -13.0 30% 32% -5.5 30% 34% -11.7
13.08.23 Deportivo Tachira vs Portuguesa FC 1-1 53% 60% -11.5 29% 31% -6.5 19% 22% -14.7
13.08.23 Monagas SC vs Carabobo Valencia 1-1 39% 45% -14.2 31% 34% -7.6 30% 33% -11.0
14.08.23 Inter de Barinas vs Estudiantes de Merida 1-0 34% 39% -14.2 30% 32% -6.2 36% 41% -11.5
18.08.23 Carabobo Valencia vs Inter de Barinas 1-0 67% 74% -10.1 23% 24% -4.5 11% 13% -17.5
19.08.23 Academia Puerto Cabello vs Mineros de Guayana 2-0 75% 83% -9.2 17% 17% -1.9 8% 10% -23.3
19.08.23 Estudiantes de Merida vs Monagas SC 1-1 37% 43% -13.6 30% 32% -6.4 33% 38% -14.1
19.08.23 UCV FC vs Deportivo Tachira 1-2 22% 27% -18.0 28% 31% -10.0 50% 54% -7.5
20.08.23 Metropolitanos vs Caracas FC 2-2 30% 35% -14.4 31% 33% -8.1 40% 44% -11.1
20.08.23 Zamora Barinas vs Deportivo La Guaira 2-1 39% 45% -13.4 30% 31% -4.9 31% 36% -13.4
21.08.23 Portuguesa FC vs Deportivo Rayo Zuliano 1-2 47% 53% -11.1 30% 32% -7.2 23% 28% -16.2
26.08.23 Academia Puerto Cabello vs Carabobo Valencia 0-0 48% 55% -13.2 30% 32% -6.5 22% 25% -11.6
26.08.23 Deportivo La Guaira vs Portuguesa FC 2-2 37% 41% -10.5 32% 35% -8.1 31% 36% -13.5
26.08.23 Deportivo Tachira vs Metropolitanos 2-0 58% 64% -9.1 27% 29% -6.8 15% 19% -18.7
27.08.23 Deportivo Rayo Zuliano vs Estudiantes de Merida 2-1 40% 45% -11.7 30% 32% -5.8 29% 34% -14.5
28.08.23 Monagas SC vs UCV FC 1-0 50% 53% -6.4 29% 32% -9.1 21% 27% -21.6
01.09.23 Carabobo Valencia vs Angostura FC 1-1 71% 78% -8.8 20% 21% -5.0 9% 11% -21.2
02.09.23 Estudiantes de Merida vs Deportivo La Guaira 2-1 42% 48% -11.3 29% 30% -3.8 29% 34% -15.6
02.09.23 Portuguesa FC vs Caracas FC 1-1 34% 38% -12.8 30% 32% -5.7 36% 41% -11.7
02.09.23 UCV FC vs Mineros de Guayana 2-0 54% 60% -10.2 27% 29% -6.5 18% 23% -18.9
03.09.23 Deportivo Rayo Zuliano vs Deportivo Tachira 1-2 27% 32% -17.0 30% 32% -8.4 44% 48% -8.3
03.09.23 Metropolitanos vs Academia Puerto Cabello 2-1 30% 36% -16.5 31% 34% -9.6 39% 43% -8.3
16.09.23 Deportivo La Guaira vs Inter de Barinas 2-2 52% 57% -9.5 27% 29% -4.8 21% 26% -20.0
16.09.23 Zamora Barinas vs Metropolitanos 4-1 30% 33% -9.4 29% 31% -4.3 40% 48% -15.2
17.09.23 Caracas FC vs UCV FC 0-0 56% 61% -8.2 27% 29% -7.0 18% 23% -21.7
17.09.23 Deportivo Tachira vs Carabobo Valencia 1-0 42% 49% -13.6 31% 33% -7.3 27% 31% -12.4
18.09.23 Academia Puerto Cabello vs Portuguesa FC 4-1 50% 55% -9.5 29% 31% -6.7 21% 26% -17.5
23.09.23 Estudiantes de Merida vs Zamora Barinas 2-2 47% 53% -10.0 28% 29% -4.4 25% 30% -19.1
23.09.23 UCV FC vs Academia Puerto Cabello 2-3 24% 28% -14.3 30% 33% -9.5 46% 51% -8.9
24.09.23 Metropolitanos vs Deportivo La Guaira 2-2 43% 47% -8.1 31% 33% -8.3 27% 33% -19.9
24.09.23 Portuguesa FC vs Mineros de Guayana 2-0 71% 78% -9.4 20% 21% -4.0 9% 12% -21.3
25.09.23 Monagas SC vs Deportivo Tachira 1-2 31% 34% -10.8 32% 35% -8.7 37% 43% -12.6
30.09.23 Academia Puerto Cabello vs Estudiantes de Merida 1-0 55% 61% -10.2 27% 28% -4.6 18% 23% -19.0
30.09.23 Angostura FC vs Portuguesa FC 1-2 20% 24% -17.0 26% 28% -7.1 54% 60% -10.4
30.09.23 Deportivo La Guaira vs UCV FC 0-0 44% 49% -9.6 29% 31% -6.5 27% 33% -20.0
30.09.23 Deportivo Tachira vs Inter de Barinas 1-0 72% 79% -8.8 20% 22% -8.4 8% 11% -23.5
30.09.23 Zamora Barinas vs Carabobo Valencia 0-2 20% 24% -16.9 27% 30% -9.7 52% 58% -9.4
06.10.23 Monagas SC vs Deportivo La Guaira 2-2 44% 49% -8.8 27% 28% -2.0 28% 36% -20.8
07.10.23 Deportivo Rayo Zuliano vs Academia Puerto Cabello 1-0 32% 38% -16.2 29% 31% -5.7 38% 42% -9.2
07.10.23 Estudiantes de Merida vs Deportivo Tachira 1-3 32% 38% -17.3 30% 32% -7.4 38% 42% -9.2
07.10.23 UCV FC vs Metropolitanos 3-2 33% 37% -10.4 30% 32% -6.2 37% 43% -15.9
09.10.23 Carabobo Valencia vs Caracas FC 1-1 46% 52% -11.0 31% 33% -8.2 23% 28% -16.2
21.10.23 Caracas FC vs Deportivo Tachira 0-0 34% 38% -12.4 31% 34% -7.6 35% 40% -12.6
22.10.23 Portuguesa FC vs Academia Puerto Cabello 1-1 31% 35% -10.8 32% 34% -8.4 37% 43% -14.1
25.10.23 Academia Puerto Cabello vs Caracas FC 0-0 50% 56% -10.7 29% 31% -6.5 22% 26% -18.0
26.10.23 Deportivo Tachira vs Portuguesa FC 3-0 58% 65% -9.7 26% 28% -5.8 16% 19% -18.4
29.10.23 Caracas FC vs Portuguesa FC 2-0 50% 56% -11.1 29% 31% -6.4 21% 26% -17.2
30.10.23 Academia Puerto Cabello vs Deportivo Tachira 0-1 38% 44% -13.6 31% 34% -7.3 30% 34% -11.0
04.11.23 Portuguesa FC vs Caracas FC 3-1 33% 37% -12.1 33% 37% -10.3 34% 38% -11.0
05.11.23 Deportivo Tachira vs Academia Puerto Cabello 2-1 51% 58% -12.1 30% 33% -8.9 19% 22% -13.5
08.11.23 Caracas FC vs Academia Puerto Cabello 1-0 39% 45% -13.5 30% 32% -6.1 30% 35% -13.4
08.11.23 Portuguesa FC vs Deportivo Tachira 1-1 25% 31% -18.7 30% 34% -11.1 44% 48% -6.6
12.11.23 Academia Puerto Cabello vs Portuguesa FC 1-1 45% 49% -7.8 30% 33% -8.7 25% 31% -20.1
12.11.23 Deportivo Tachira vs Caracas FC 1-1 46% 51% -8.6 30% 32% -6.7 24% 29% -17.0
25.11.23 Deportivo Tachira vs Caracas FC 1-1 48% 53% -9.7 30% 33% -8.7 21% 26% -17.1
02.02.24 Caracas FC vs Deportivo La Guaira 2-0 55% 60% -9.0 27% 29% -7.5 18% 23% -20.9
03.02.24 Academia Puerto Cabello vs Carabobo Valencia 2-2 36% 41% -11.3 33% 36% -9.8 31% 36% -13.3
03.02.24 Deportivo Rayo Zuliano vs Portuguesa FC 3-1 38% 43% -11.2 32% 35% -8.7 30% 35% -14.1
03.02.24 Monagas SC vs Metropolitanos 2-4 43% 48% -8.7 31% 33% -8.4 26% 32% -19.4
04.02.24 Deportivo Tachira vs Estudiantes de Merida 5-1 53% 57% -8.0 29% 31% -8.7 19% 24% -20.6
05.02.24 Angostura FC vs UCV FC 0-0 34% 38% -11.6 32% 35% -8.4 34% 39% -13.1
09.02.24 Portuguesa FC vs Academia Puerto Cabello 0-1 35% 41% -14.3 32% 36% -9.1 33% 36% -8.9
10.02.24 Carabobo Valencia vs Inter de Barinas 1-0 61% 67% -8.0 25% 27% -7.8 14% 18% -22.7
10.02.24 Zamora Barinas vs Deportivo Tachira 0-0 18% 23% -19.1 26% 29% -10.8 55% 60% -6.9
11.02.24 Deportivo La Guaira vs Monagas SC 2-1 37% 43% -12.0 30% 32% -6.0 32% 38% -14.6
12.02.24 UCV FC vs Metropolitanos 3-0 35% 39% -11.5 30% 32% -5.5 35% 40% -13.1
13.02.24 Estudiantes de Merida vs Angostura FC 0-1 50% 53% -6.3 28% 30% -7.7 22% 29% -23.2
17.02.24 Academia Puerto Cabello vs Estudiantes de Merida 2-1 51% 56% -9.7 27% 29% -4.8 22% 28% -20.7
17.02.24 Angostura FC vs Deportivo La Guaira 1-1 33% 38% -13.1 31% 33% -7.3 36% 41% -12.6
17.02.24 Caracas FC vs Portuguesa FC 0-1 55% 61% -10.1 28% 30% -7.9 18% 22% -19.0
17.02.24 Metropolitanos vs Zamora Barinas 3-1 46% 50% -7.6 29% 31% -6.0 25% 31% -20.4
18.02.24 Deportivo Tachira vs Deportivo Rayo Zuliano 2-1 60% 66% -9.3 25% 26% -5.6 15% 19% -20.9
18.02.24 Inter de Barinas vs UCV FC 0-1 38% 40% -3.9 31% 34% -9.0 30% 38% -21.5
18.02.24 Monagas SC vs Carabobo Valencia 0-0 32% 36% -11.1 31% 34% -7.8 36% 43% -14.4
23.02.24 Portuguesa FC vs Deportivo Tachira 1-1 25% 29% -14.1 31% 34% -10.2 44% 49% -10.3
24.02.24 Deportivo La Guaira vs Academia Puerto Cabello 0-0 40% 50% -19.5 30% 32% -6.8 30% 31% -5.0
24.02.24 Estudiantes de Merida vs Caracas FC 1-1 29% 32% -11.5 29% 31% -5.7 42% 49% -13.9
24.02.24 UCV FC vs Monagas SC 1-1 38% 44% -15.1 31% 33% -7.5 31% 36% -12.0
25.02.24 Carabobo Valencia vs Angostura FC 2-1 57% 61% -6.2 26% 29% -8.9 17% 23% -24.6
26.02.24 Metropolitanos vs Inter de Barinas 1-2 57% 63% -9.8 26% 28% -6.0 17% 21% -20.1
01.03.24 Metropolitanos vs Carabobo Valencia 1-1 42% 49% -14.4 30% 32% -6.4 28% 32% -13.0
02.03.24 Angostura FC vs Portuguesa FC 0-0 37% 43% -13.8 31% 34% -7.5 31% 35% -11.2
02.03.24 Monagas SC vs Estudiantes de Merida 3-2 44% 50% -11.8 30% 32% -7.1 26% 31% -16.9
02.03.24 UCV FC vs Zamora Barinas 2-2 43% 49% -11.4 30% 32% -6.2 27% 31% -15.1
03.03.24 Caracas FC vs Deportivo Tachira 0-0 40% 45% -11.3 32% 35% -8.4 28% 32% -13.9
03.03.24 Inter de Barinas vs Deportivo La Guaira 1-2 26% 32% -19.9 30% 34% -11.4 44% 47% -5.1
04.03.24 Academia Puerto Cabello vs Deportivo Rayo Zuliano 3-1 50% 57% -12.0 29% 30% -5.6 21% 25% -15.7
08.03.24 Deportivo Tachira vs Academia Puerto Cabello 0-1 51% 57% -9.9 30% 33% -9.8 18% 22% -17.0
09.03.24 Carabobo Valencia vs UCV FC 0-1 46% 50% -8.5 31% 34% -9.2 23% 28% -17.3
09.03.24 Estudiantes de Merida vs Inter de Barinas 0-2 46% 48% -4.1 30% 34% -10.4 24% 31% -23.3
09.03.24 Portuguesa FC vs Monagas SC 1-2 36% 42% -14.5 31% 33% -7.2 33% 37% -10.9
Showing the 100 most recent of 575 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

8 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Carabobo Valencia 1766.02
2 Deportivo Tachira 1731.42
3 Academia Puerto Cabello 1724.55
4 Caracas FC 1620.34
5 Metropolitanos 1617.59
6 Monagas SC 1601.66
7 Deportivo La Guaira 1595.28
8 Portuguesa FC 1577.21

Away Ratings

8 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Academia Puerto Cabello 1655.92
2 Deportivo Tachira 1648.77
3 Carabobo Valencia 1612.08
4 Deportivo La Guaira 1578.08
5 Caracas FC 1560.08
6 Metropolitanos 1545.31
7 Monagas SC 1530.52
8 Portuguesa FC 1478.37