ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 579
Avg Goals 2.40
Avg Home 1.40
Avg Away 1.00
Home Win % 43.5%
Draw % 30.9%
Away Win % 25.6%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
Calculating…
No rows yet Rows will be created automatically from the league size.
Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 579
Avg Brier Score 0.6339
Pick Accuracy 45.9%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.6351
Market Brier 0.6354
Blended Model Beats Market? Yes
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 1
Value Bet Hit Rate 100.0%
ROI (flat stake) 230.0%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • 100.0% of value bets are on 'home' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 1 of 579 matches had at least one · staked 1.00, profit 2.30 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 1 100.0% 1.00 2.30 230.0%
draw 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
away 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 7.8% 18.2% 11
10–20% 16.1% 17.4% 132
20–30% 26.4% 26.9% 621
30–40% 33.2% 32.7% 559
40–50% 44.6% 46.2% 253
50–60% 54.3% 50.0% 102
60–70% 63.4% 59.2% 49
70–80% 74.0% 66.7% 9
80–90% 86.8% 100.0% 1
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
04.08.23 CS Maritimo de La Guaira vs Academia Anzoategui FC 2-1 39% 44% -11.7 32% 35% -8.7 29% 33% -13.8
05.08.23 Nueva Esparta FC vs Dynamo Puerto FC 2-2 56% 65% -13.7 27% 29% -5.0 17% 19% -9.8
05.08.23 Titanes FC vs Yaracuyanos San Felipe 2-1 42% 48% -12.6 30% 31% -4.8 29% 33% -14.0
06.08.23 Academia Rey vs Urena SC 0-2 24% 27% -8.1 29% 29% -2.7 47% 56% -17.0
06.08.23 Atletico El Vigia vs Real Frontera 1-1 46% 55% -15.8 30% 31% -5.1 24% 27% -8.8
06.08.23 Atletico La Cruz vs Bolivar SC 1-0 34% 36% -6.1 32% 35% -8.4 34% 42% -18.5
06.08.23 Deportivo Miranda vs Fundacion AIFI 1-2 36% 39% -7.4 33% 36% -9.7 31% 37% -16.7
09.08.23 Academia Anzoategui FC vs Deportivo Miranda 1-2 43% 47% -7.7 31% 34% -9.1 26% 32% -18.6
09.08.23 Atletico La Cruz vs CS Maritimo de La Guaira 1-1 34% 37% -6.9 31% 34% -7.4 34% 42% -18.1
09.08.23 Dynamo Puerto FC vs Fundacion AIFI 1-0 38% 43% -10.9 32% 34% -8.0 30% 36% -14.9
09.08.23 Real Frontera vs Titanes FC 3-0 42% 49% -14.7 31% 34% -7.6 27% 30% -10.7
09.08.23 Trujillanos Valera vs Atletico El Vigia 1-0 45% 50% -9.9 30% 32% -7.5 25% 30% -17.1
09.08.23 Urena SC vs Yaracuyanos San Felipe 0-0 62% 71% -12.2 24% 25% -3.6 14% 15% -11.5
10.08.23 Bolivar SC vs Nueva Esparta FC 0-0 41% 47% -11.5 30% 32% -6.3 29% 34% -15.6
13.08.23 CS Maritimo de La Guaira vs Nueva Esparta FC 2-0 36% 40% -9.9 31% 34% -7.2 33% 38% -15.5
13.08.23 Deportivo Miranda vs Atletico La Cruz 1-0 44% 47% -5.1 31% 34% -10.4 25% 31% -20.2
13.08.23 Dynamo Puerto FC vs Bolivar SC 1-2 37% 42% -10.5 32% 34% -8.3 31% 37% -16.1
13.08.23 Yaracuyanos San Felipe vs Real Frontera 3-0 53% 63% -15.5 27% 28% -3.0 20% 22% -9.9
18.08.23 CS Maritimo de La Guaira vs Dynamo Puerto FC 2-0 47% 52% -9.9 29% 30% -5.9 25% 30% -18.1
19.08.23 Nueva Esparta FC vs Deportivo Miranda 0-0 49% 55% -10.6 30% 32% -8.4 22% 26% -15.8
20.08.23 Academia Anzoategui FC vs Bolivar SC 1-1 39% 42% -6.0 31% 34% -9.4 30% 37% -20.2
20.08.23 Atletico El Vigia vs Urena SC 0-0 32% 38% -16.2 30% 31% -5.1 39% 44% -12.9
20.08.23 Real Frontera vs Heroes de Falcon 1-1 39% 48% -17.7 29% 30% -3.4 32% 35% -9.4
20.08.23 Trujillanos Valera vs Yaracuyanos San Felipe 1-2 39% 43% -10.5 32% 34% -8.3 29% 35% -15.5
26.08.23 Yaracuyanos San Felipe vs Trujillanos Valera 0-0 45% 50% -9.5 29% 31% -6.7 26% 31% -18.1
27.08.23 Bolivar SC vs Academia Anzoategui FC 0-0 39% 42% -6.8 29% 31% -5.9 31% 39% -20.3
27.08.23 Deportivo Miranda vs Nueva Esparta FC 1-1 33% 36% -9.4 31% 33% -6.2 36% 42% -15.2
27.08.23 Dynamo Puerto FC vs CS Maritimo de La Guaira 3-0 35% 38% -8.8 30% 31% -4.5 35% 43% -17.5
27.08.23 Heroes de Falcon vs Real Frontera 4-1 48% 53% -10.5 28% 29% -3.3 25% 29% -16.6
27.08.23 Urena SC vs Atletico El Vigia 1-1 53% 58% -8.4 28% 30% -9.0 19% 24% -19.5
02.09.23 Bolivar SC vs Dynamo Puerto FC 0-1 40% 42% -5.0 28% 29% -4.4 32% 41% -22.1
02.09.23 Nueva Esparta FC vs CS Maritimo de La Guaira 2-2 54% 59% -8.0 27% 29% -8.6 19% 24% -20.3
03.09.23 Academia Rey vs Atletico El Vigia 2-4 23% 24% -5.2 27% 27% 0.5 50% 61% -18.1
03.09.23 Atletico La Cruz vs Deportivo Miranda 1-0 44% 48% -7.7 32% 35% -9.5 25% 29% -16.6
03.09.23 Real Frontera vs Yaracuyanos San Felipe 0-3 42% 48% -12.1 30% 32% -6.7 28% 33% -15.8
06.09.23 Atletico El Vigia vs Trujillanos Valera 0-0 44% 48% -6.9 30% 32% -7.9 26% 32% -19.6
06.09.23 CS Maritimo de La Guaira vs Atletico La Cruz 4-1 58% 65% -11.3 28% 30% -8.7 14% 16% -10.3
06.09.23 Deportivo Miranda vs Academia Anzoategui FC 2-2 42% 47% -9.5 32% 35% -9.2 26% 31% -16.0
06.09.23 Nueva Esparta FC vs Bolivar SC 0-0 50% 52% -3.8 31% 36% -14.3 20% 25% -22.0
06.09.23 Titanes FC vs Real Frontera 1-2 56% 65% -12.8 26% 28% -5.0 17% 20% -13.2
06.09.23 Yaracuyanos San Felipe vs Urena SC 1-0 43% 51% -14.9 29% 31% -4.3 28% 31% -11.7
07.09.23 Fundacion AIFI vs Dynamo Puerto FC 3-1 39% 43% -7.4 32% 34% -8.4 29% 35% -17.4
10.09.23 Academia Anzoategui FC vs CS Maritimo de La Guaira 1-2 39% 44% -12.1 32% 35% -8.2 29% 33% -13.1
10.09.23 Bolivar SC vs Atletico La Cruz 5-1 47% 51% -8.8 30% 33% -9.2 23% 28% -17.3
10.09.23 Dynamo Puerto FC vs Nueva Esparta FC 2-0 37% 42% -11.9 33% 36% -8.7 30% 34% -12.4
10.09.23 Real Frontera vs Atletico El Vigia 1-3 39% 43% -11.0 30% 31% -4.9 32% 38% -16.3
10.09.23 Urena SC vs Academia Rey 3-0 87% 93% -7.2 10% 11% -6.6 3% 3% -17.4
10.09.23 Yaracuyanos San Felipe vs Titanes FC 1-2 44% 52% -14.4 29% 31% -4.3 26% 29% -10.9
11.09.23 Fundacion AIFI vs Deportivo Miranda 1-0 44% 50% -11.1 31% 34% -8.4 25% 29% -14.1
17.09.23 Academia Rey vs Real Frontera 3-4 26% 32% -17.9 28% 29% -3.8 45% 51% -10.5
17.09.23 Atletico El Vigia vs Yaracuyanos San Felipe 1-1 39% 42% -8.6 31% 33% -7.3 31% 37% -17.5
17.09.23 Atletico La Cruz vs Dynamo Puerto FC 1-1 40% 48% -15.0 29% 30% -3.5 30% 34% -12.2
17.09.23 CS Maritimo de La Guaira vs Fundacion AIFI 0-0 52% 58% -11.0 29% 31% -7.8 19% 23% -14.5
17.09.23 Deportivo Miranda vs Bolivar SC 1-0 41% 44% -7.0 31% 34% -9.5 27% 34% -19.1
24.09.23 Atletico El Vigia vs Heroes de Falcon 0-0 39% 43% -9.3 31% 33% -7.0 30% 36% -16.3
24.09.23 CS Maritimo de La Guaira vs Bolivar SC 1-2 44% 47% -5.4 31% 35% -10.8 25% 31% -20.3
24.09.23 Trujillanos Valera vs Real Frontera 2-1 44% 50% -11.4 31% 33% -8.0 25% 29% -14.8
24.09.23 Urena SC vs Titanes FC 0-1 52% 58% -10.2 29% 32% -8.9 19% 22% -14.0
01.10.23 Academia Anzoategui FC vs Dynamo Puerto FC 1-1 54% 60% -9.6 26% 28% -5.3 20% 24% -18.4
01.10.23 Bolivar SC vs Fundacion AIFI 2-2 45% 49% -7.1 31% 34% -9.5 24% 29% -18.3
01.10.23 Deportivo Miranda vs CS Maritimo de La Guaira 1-2 33% 36% -10.2 33% 36% -9.2 34% 40% -14.2
01.10.23 Heroes de Falcon vs Yaracuyanos San Felipe 1-0 48% 53% -10.3 28% 29% -4.4 24% 29% -16.2
01.10.23 Titanes FC vs Atletico El Vigia 2-0 55% 60% -7.7 30% 35% -13.2 15% 17% -14.6
07.10.23 Bolivar SC vs Yaracuyanos San Felipe 2-1 37% 39% -6.0 32% 36% -9.5 31% 38% -18.3
07.10.23 Titanes FC vs Dynamo Puerto FC 2-2 48% 53% -9.1 28% 29% -6.1 25% 31% -20.3
08.10.23 Atletico El Vigia vs CS Maritimo de La Guaira 0-0 38% 43% -13.0 32% 35% -7.8 30% 34% -11.3
08.10.23 Fundacion AIFI vs Urena SC 0-1 31% 37% -17.4 33% 36% -9.6 37% 39% -6.8
14.10.23 Yaracuyanos San Felipe vs Bolivar SC 0-2 50% 55% -8.9 29% 32% -9.4 21% 26% -18.1
15.10.23 CS Maritimo de La Guaira vs Atletico El Vigia 1-0 47% 53% -10.9 27% 29% -4.0 25% 31% -18.2
15.10.23 Dynamo Puerto FC vs Titanes FC 2-2 31% 33% -6.9 30% 31% -4.3 39% 48% -18.0
15.10.23 Urena SC vs Fundacion AIFI 2-1 52% 56% -8.7 28% 31% -8.6 20% 25% -18.8
22.10.23 Bolivar SC vs Urena SC 2-0 37% 42% -12.1 32% 34% -7.6 31% 36% -13.1
23.10.23 CS Maritimo de La Guaira vs Dynamo Puerto FC 0-0 48% 53% -8.3 30% 33% -10.4 22% 27% -19.1
29.10.23 Dynamo Puerto FC vs CS Maritimo de La Guaira 1-1 38% 43% -12.0 30% 32% -6.3 32% 38% -16.5
29.10.23 Urena SC vs Bolivar SC 2-0 43% 48% -8.9 30% 32% -7.8 27% 33% -19.3
05.11.23 Bolivar SC vs CS Maritimo de La Guaira 3-1 39% 43% -7.5 32% 35% -8.9 29% 35% -17.6
11.11.23 CS Maritimo de La Guaira vs Bolivar SC 0-0 41% 44% -7.3 31% 33% -8.0 28% 34% -18.4
22.11.23 Urena SC vs Bolivar SC 3-0 46% 51% -8.9 30% 32% -7.8 24% 29% -17.5
29.11.23 Bolivar SC vs Urena SC 2-1 40% 44% -10.3 31% 33% -7.3 29% 35% -16.1
16.03.24 Dynamo Puerto FC vs Academia Anzoategui FC 2-0 44% 50% -12.8 30% 31% -5.0 27% 31% -13.2
17.03.24 Aragua Maracay vs Yaracuyanos San Felipe 0-2 49% 55% -10.8 28% 29% -5.1 23% 28% -16.8
17.03.24 Bolivar SC vs Fundacion AIFI 2-0 47% 51% -8.0 30% 34% -10.6 23% 28% -19.0
17.03.24 Deportivo Miranda vs CS Maritimo de La Guaira 1-0 33% 36% -9.2 33% 36% -9.2 34% 40% -15.0
17.03.24 Urena SC vs Real Frontera 2-1 48% 53% -9.6 29% 31% -7.3 23% 28% -17.3
22.03.24 Yaracuyanos San Felipe vs Urena SC 2-1 40% 44% -9.2 32% 36% -9.5 27% 32% -15.3
23.03.24 CS Maritimo de La Guaira vs Dynamo Puerto FC 2-0 43% 48% -9.3 31% 34% -9.1 25% 30% -16.0
23.03.24 Fundacion AIFI vs Deportivo Miranda 0-0 41% 50% -17.9 32% 35% -7.8 27% 27% -1.6
23.03.24 Nueva Esparta FC vs Bolivar SC 0-0 43% 47% -8.3 32% 36% -10.6 25% 31% -17.4
23.03.24 Real Frontera vs Atletico El Vigia 2-3 33% 36% -8.3 30% 32% -5.5 37% 44% -17.3
30.03.24 Fundacion AIFI vs CS Maritimo de La Guaira 0-2 34% 37% -8.0 31% 33% -6.4 35% 42% -16.6
30.03.24 Real Frontera vs Trujillanos Valera 1-1 35% 36% -3.2 31% 34% -7.6 34% 43% -19.9
31.03.24 Bolivar SC vs Deportivo Miranda 0-1 46% 55% -16.6 32% 34% -6.8 23% 23% -1.1
31.03.24 Urena SC vs Atletico El Vigia 4-4 50% 56% -10.2 28% 30% -6.7 22% 26% -17.1
06.04.24 CS Maritimo de La Guaira vs Bolivar SC 3-0 42% 45% -7.5 31% 34% -9.1 27% 32% -17.6
06.04.24 Nueva Esparta FC vs Dynamo Puerto FC 0-1 40% 44% -9.4 32% 35% -9.3 28% 33% -16.4
07.04.24 Aragua Maracay vs Real Frontera 1-2 55% 58% -6.0 26% 29% -10.6 19% 25% -23.7
07.04.24 Atletico El Vigia vs Heroes de Falcon 1-1 39% 44% -11.3 30% 32% -5.9 30% 36% -15.4
07.04.24 Deportivo Miranda vs Academia Anzoategui FC 0-1 44% 50% -12.7 32% 35% -9.2 24% 28% -11.8
13.04.24 Academia Anzoategui FC vs CS Maritimo de La Guaira 1-1 39% 43% -11.2 30% 31% -4.8 32% 38% -16.1
13.04.24 Real Frontera vs Yaracuyanos San Felipe 1-0 31% 34% -9.1 30% 31% -4.2 39% 47% -16.7
Showing the 100 most recent of 579 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

17 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 CD Lara 1661.73
2 CS Maritimo de La Guaira 1525.42
3 Barquisimeto SC 1500.29
4 Aragua Maracay 1491.10
5 Yaracuyanos San Felipe 1480.15
6 Deportivo Miranda 1452.13
7 Urena SC 1441.39
8 Bolivar SC 1435.95
9 Atletico El Vigia 1421.27
10 Zamora FC Barinas II 1397.42
11 Monagas SC II 1390.40
12 Mineros de Guayana 1384.40
13 Club Atletico Barinas 1368.49
14 Dynamo Puerto FC 1359.33
15 Academia Puerto Cabello II 1351.44
16 Atletico Avila FC 1293.81
17 Real Frontera 1219.80

Away Ratings

17 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 CD Lara 1539.87
2 Aragua Maracay 1443.04
3 CS Maritimo de La Guaira 1438.00
4 Barquisimeto SC 1406.54
5 Deportivo Miranda 1398.71
6 Yaracuyanos San Felipe 1386.44
7 Urena SC 1379.55
8 Bolivar SC 1366.38
9 Mineros de Guayana 1347.69
10 Monagas SC II 1333.97
11 Academia Puerto Cabello II 1329.72
12 Zamora FC Barinas II 1320.39
13 Dynamo Puerto FC 1295.38
14 Club Atletico Barinas 1261.37
15 Atletico El Vigia 1246.51
16 Real Frontera 1212.12
17 Atletico Avila FC 1204.24